Well Handicapped? Change of Luck Needed.

Thursday 30^th January

Wincanton 2.10 Shantou Magic 1PT WIN  9/2 Stan James 

Highly thought of by his trainer as evidenced when finishing 4^th in the Grade 1 Challow hurdle over the Christamas period, following two wins in ordinary novice hurdles. He makes his handicap debut today off an attractive mark of 138 and has been already been backed.

Early One At Towcester

Towcester 1.10 Milord 1PT WIN  5/6 Stan James

Milord finds himself on a confidence boosting mission today after two falls in four runs this season, but his form when fourth in the Fred Winter at the festival is head and shoulders above his opponents here. I assume a clear round will be his priority, but with the booking of Jason Maguire he should have enough class to win this at I expect him to start shorter than his current price(Two lengths clear at the last and in command when coming down - Luck is really out at the moment) 

YTD Running Total -5.10PTS 

Long Wait Till Last At Haydock

Saturday 18^th January 2014

Haydock 3.50 Straidnahanna 1PT WIN  11/4 Various .

Has run well in three novice hurdles this season and come up against the likes of Oscar Rock on debut and Racing Pulse most recently. Ran well over these obstacles in November and in receipt of 6lbs from the Woof who is tongue tied for the first time should go very close. (2nd 7/4JF heavily backed and shortheaded on the line - hard to take)

YTD Running Total -4.10PTS 

One For Warwick

Saturday 11^th January 2014

Warwick 1.55 Sew On Target 1PT WIN  4/1 Paddy Power

Been running well from the front in much more competitive handicaps at Cheltenham. Has won on the ground and this represents a big drop in class.(Unplaced 5/1 - unable to dominate and soon beaten after two out - disappointing effort)

YTD Running Total -3.10PTS

One at Doncaster

Wednesday 8^th January 2014

Doncaster 3.20 Dardanella 1PT WIN  7/2 Various 

Winner of bumper and mares novice hurdle she looks well handicapped off 112 for her handicap debut in this mares event.  Stable remains in good form and her profile looks more progressive than the favourite Queen Spud. (3rd 7/2 - looked to have a chance 3 out but readily left behind, may need further.)

YTD Running Total -2.10PTS

One For Today

Thursday 2^nd January 2014

Huntington  12.10 Gunner Fifteen 1PT WIN  3/1 Various .
Easy winner of a bumper(runner up won yesterday), was heavily backed for hurdles debut when running too free over 2 1/2miles and Chepstow (winner won at Cheltenham yesterday).  Non runner in a much more competitive race than this at Kempton on Boxing Day. Looks a two horse race with odds on Fav to beat and in receipt of 7lbs should go close. (Pulled Up 9/4 - Terrible run, held up and never got into contention. The Stewards considered the running of GUNNER FIFTEEN (IRE), ridden by Noel Fehily and trained by Fergal O’Brien, which was pulled up. They noted the trainer could offer no explanation for the gelding’s performance. They ordered GUNNER FIFTEEN (IRE) to be routine tested).

YTD Running Total -1.10PTS

Happy New Year

Wednesday 1^st January 2014

Cheltenham 12.10 Ballyalton 1PT WIN@9/4 Various 

Ballyalton was visually very impressive at the last Cheltenham meeting at a trip short of his best.  Racing Pulse is a big danger based on his impressive performance at Newcastle, but I think Ballyalton will have too much class and speed for him over this trip.
4TH 3/1(drifted in market, not able to quicken going to last, disappointing run)

Cheltenham 2.30 Double Ross 1PT WIN@2/1 Various 

I expect him to be able to defy the 7lb increase for a victory in a much more competitive race here at the last meeting, where he had the race won from the top of the hill.  Stable amongst winners again yesterday.
1ST 11/8F rule 4 (well backed, always in control, comfortable) 1.9PT Profit

Catterick 3.25 Five in a Row 1PT WIN@10/11Bet 365

Winner of a point and a bumper (second has won twice since). He was highly tried on hurdle debut behind Ballyalton and Oscar Rock. This represents a drop in class and the step up in distance is also a plus.
2ND 10/11F (disappointing in a slow tactical affair).

YTD running total -0.10PTS

Belated Happy 2013 - One To Watch

Decided to give racing a miss yesterday and go to watch my local team Wigan play Manchester Utd. To say play would be an understatement as they were totally outclassed and being a neutral I could really appreciate the skill and class that some of the Utd players possess and why in the case of Robin van Persie £24m looks money well spent. 
Yesterday on the racing front there was nothing strong enough for a bet. Today there is one meeting at Ayr and one horse of of interest but not an official bet as I believe the favourite will be difficult to beat.

Ayr 12.50 Our Joey (Backed in from 5/1 early in the morning to 6/4F and ran out at 2nd last when probably beat. One to keep on the side of when stepped up in trip)

Dual bumper winner who should have won on his novice hurdle debut when falling at second last. Outclassed at Cheltenham last time but didn't run as bad as finishing position would suggest. Trip may be a bit short today but can put jumping experience to good use, although I believe the favourite Halo Moon will be difficult to beat after turning over a well regarded sort from the Pipe stable on his debut. 

Two For Today

Little time for a full write up today but two selections.

Newbury 12.20 Arbeo 1/2PT E/W @9/2 various(1ST 4/1JF made all. A welcome winner for the blog)

Newbury 2.10 Maringo Bay 1/2PT E/W@8/1 various(NR but interesting if takes up engagement at Haydock tomorrow)

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Quiet Boxing Day

Plenty of meetings today but with the ground riding heavy at almost all meetings and the markets looking tight for the horses I was interested in there is no selection today.

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Make or Break Day

Kent Street was a poor selection yesterday as after a mistake at the first he jumped with no fluency and it was only a matter of time before he fell or unseated, which he did at half way. I still think there is ability there and he may pop in at a big price over hurdles later in the season. Two meetings today at Newbury and Ludlow.

Ludlow 1.40 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @4/1 various. (PU 7/2JF Poor effort but I found the reason on the BHA website." The representative of Jonjo O’Neill, the trainer of MOONLIGHT DRIVE (IRE), which was pulled up, reported that the gelding was unsuited by the soft ground"). So one to keep a lookout for in the spring on better ground.

I believe Moonlight Drive is a much better horse than his current rating of 125 and the move from John Quinn to Jonjo O'Neill looks interesting. The horse clearly has significant potential being a point winner and on the form of his initial novice hurdle win, when he beat Trustan Times at Wetherby. Last season was a bit of a waste after a promising novice chase debut when partnered by AP Mcoy when usual jockey Dougie Costello was suspended, he reverted back to hurdles and was disappointing. This is a fairly competitive handicap chase and I think it is make or break day for Moonlight Drive to starting fulfilling the potential he undoubtedly has, by taking this before moving on to better things.

P&L for 2012 -12.56

Lets Try Again

Apologies for the lack of recent updates but dealing with a recent loss of my mother has had to take priority over updating the blog. 

Two meetings today at Catterick and probably the final ever meeting at Folkestone and there is one selection at Catterick 

Catterick 1.40 Kent Street 1/2PT E/W@13/2 various.(UR at half way. Did not jump with any confidence - one to avoid in the future)

Kent Street was the last selection posted on the blog and having been well back managed to unseat his rider at the 1st. He had been on my radar as a handicap chase project since the start of the season and after two encouraging runs at Carlisle I believed he had a really good chance last time. Today is a much more competitive race but provided his jumping holds up and I am taking this into consideration in the current price,  I believe he has a great E/W chance based on his earlier runs. 

P&L for 2012 -11.56

Guaranteed Result For Today

I can guarantee that my selection will not fall at the first as I've not got one!!!!!!!!

Deja Vu yesterday as Kent Street was nicely backed only to make a mistake and unseat Ryan Mania at the first fence to follow on from Brackloon High who did the same thing a couple of weeks ago to continue my run of bad luck. Over the last 30 years I've had runs of bad luck but this is different as it appears to have lasted for most of the year and have never had a consistent run of winners. I don't intend to change my selection criteria as I take comfort from previous years records that it will turn at some stage and the winners will flow on a regular basis again.

The meeting at Wincanton survives but there is no selection.

P&L for 2012 -11.56

One For Today

Yesterday was frustrating with the selection Up To Something easily disposing of the odds on fav as expected only to get collared going to the last by a 20/1 outsider, but that the unpredictabilty of racing.
Moving onto today there are two meetings at Catterick and Hereford and there is one selection at Catterick.

Catterick 2.50 Kent Street 1PT WIN @4/1 various (UR 11/4F -Unbelievable second time in two weeks may selection has been well backed only to come down at the first)

Kent Street has been on my radar as a handicap chase project since the start of the season and after two encouaging runs at Carlisle I believe his chance comes today. His first run at Carlisle was very encouraging where he stayed on very well from 3 out in a competitive novice chase under hands and heels and the jockey received a ban for taking things too easy. His 2nd run was equally as good and he is now is dropped into handicap company. Despite running off top weight this is not a great race. My only concern is the step up to the extended 3 miles, but the way he was stayed on up the stiff Carlisle finish I doubt it should pose a problem.

P&L for 2012 -10.56

Double Recovery Mission

Double recovery mission today in attempting to recover from a poor start to the month on Saturday and recover money lost on a previous selection who ran badly in November. Today there are two meetings at Folkestone and Towcester and there is one selection at Towcester. 

Towcester 1.50 Up To Something 1PT WIN@11/4 various(2nd 9/4 as expected got the odds on Fav beaten only to be done by 18/1 outsider)

Up To Something was a short price selection for the blog at the beginning of November when running terrible at Uttoxeter and being pulled up. It transpires he was a sick horse that day and the form of that race has probably some of the best novice hurdle form on offer so far this season with winner Coneygree subsequently winning impressively at Cheltenham and runner up Corrin Wood losing out by a neck to highly regarded Gevrey Chambertin at Haydock last Friday and the third also winning. For Up To Something to be sent of at such a short price in a race of that quality shows the ability he obviously has and the current price of 11/4 look fair value against the odds on fav, to discover if his poor effort last time was a one off.

P&L for 2012 -9.56

Three For Today

Small winning month in November but again a month plagued by bad luck. There are 26 more day of racing planned for December and my target remains to achieve break-even in what is looking to be my worst ever year for gambling on the horses. It looks like the three meeting at Newbury, Newcastle and Towcester have survived and there are three selections.
A poor day. Managed to beat the SP in all races but that no good if the selections don't win.

Newbury 1.25 Global Power 1/2PT E/W@10/1various (Unplaced 8/1 look to be travelling well till 6 out but seemed one paced after that)
The Oliver Sherwood stable are in tremendous form at the moment and Global Power runs in this competitive novices handicap chase off an attractive mark having according to the trainer been wrong all last season. The trainer comments on his blog today "Global Power is in great form at home and will put up a bold show at a track that should suit. His jumping was good at Fontwell and that race has brought him on a lot physically and mentally. This looks a competitive race but he has a great ew chance".

Towcester 2.10 Thomas Crapper 1PT WIN@3/1 Betfred (4th 15/8F never really got competitive very disappointing effort)
Drop in class from his run behind The New One at Cheltenham last time, where he ran very much like a stayer, so this stiff track should suit. He sets the standard here having been fifth in the EBF final on his final run last season behind the highly regarded Ambion Wood.

Newcastle 2.20 Cinders and Ashes 1PT WIN Evs@William Hill ( 2nd 10/11F never looked happy at any stage)
Winner of last seasons Supreme Novices hurdle at Cheltenham who acts well on heavy ground. This looks an ideal starting point for the season in a race the stable have won for the last couple of seasons with Peddlers Cross and Overturn.

Nothing Today

Another day of competitive racing with three meetings at Doncaster, Musselburgh and Newbury and there is no selection. November has shown a small profit and I will update the pages later.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Plenty of Racing Today

After a blank day yesterday National Hunt racing returns today with three cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter and whilst there are plenty of runners of interest there are no official blog bets as the racing is fairly competitive as exemplified by the 2.05 at Newbury where I would be interested in backing 5 of the 6 runners if they were not running against each other.

Two horses of interest today:- 

Utt 12.25 My Flora (Very good hunter chaser during the last couple of season and now being professionally trained by Donald McCain. I assume the Mares only race at the Cheltenham festival will be the long term target if they stick to the hurdling route so should have the class to win this race over two miles but not prepared to back at odds on to find out as there will be better opportunities to back her over longer trips later in the season).

Taun 3.55 Miss Exhibitionist ( Up 7lb for winning well at Lingfield last time and could be able to defy the rise now dropped back into a mares only handicap)

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Change of Luck at Last

Loose Chips made all yesterday and jumped superbly for a fairly comfortable victory, and was a welcomed winner of the blog. Having experienced a significant amount of bad luck last week it was nice for once to see the selection backed and things go to plan in the race. Moving on to today the meeting at Lingfield has survived but the ground will be desperate and there is nothing that appeals. With  tomorrows meetings already abandoned  my next update will be on Thursday at the earliest.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

New Week Change of Luck?

Saturday rounded off a poor week for the blog with Double Ross making all as expected and going to the last in front only to make a terrible mistake there and then be caught on the long run in. What I didn't expect was for him to be caught and passed by three horses and end up out of the places. Still racing goes on and there are two meetings today at Kempton and Ludlow with one selection at Kempton.

Kempton 12.30 Loose Chips 0.5PT E/W @11/2 Boylesports(1ST @4/1JF Made all, jumped well, fairly comfortable)

A winner of the blog earlier in the year and went into the note book again last month when trying to make all at Haydock only to be passed and caught at the last. Was heavily eased on the run in and the handicapper has left him on the same mark. The form is strong with the winner of the Haydock race finishing 4th at Cheltenham next time and the runner up winning at Haydock on Saturday. Today's race does not look any strong than the Haydock race and with the application of blinkers for the first time he should go very close.

P&L for 2012 -9.86