Saturday, 10 December 2011

An Old Faithful

Two poor selections on Thursday both running well below what I expected and no selection yesterday. As I write Lingfield has been abandoned so only Doncaster (still in doubt) and Cheltenham remain and there is one selection at Cheltenham.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +26.42
Cheltenham 2.30 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W@8/1 Various
Great Endeavour was a selection when he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup a month ago and in my analysis for the race I wrote “Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival” and he won the race very easily. His subsequent run in the Hennessey was a good one as he was given every chance by Timmy Murphy to get the trip and having hit the front jumping the 2nd last he clearly did not stay the 3 mile 2 furlong trip. Today he runs against a number of horses he beat in the Paddy Power but from a 10lb high mark, but I feel he is capable of beating them again as he was always travelling so comfortably throughout that race and he could be named the winner at the top of the hill. Assuming the Hennessay  has not taken too much out of him the current price is fair value.

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Two For Today

After a quiet week there are three competitive meetings today at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton and there are two selections.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Ludlow  1.10 The Chazer 1PT WIN@7/2 Various
Reading the form literally is small field novice chases can sometimes be misleading,  but  in this case I don’t think so and I am confident  the handicapper has got it wrong. The Chazer made his chase debut a month ago at Bangor finish 2nd to the mighty  Peddlers Cross beaten only 4 ½ lengths. The race comment from the race are “raced keenly, held up in rear, went 2nd 8th, switched right and tried to challenge approaching last, always fighting losing battle, eased when no chance final 110yds”. What impressed me although he was never going to win his jumping was fast and accurate against a far superior rival and it was only after the last that the jockey eased off. Taking the above factors into consideration I believe the horse ran to a higher mark than the 121 he ran off that day and runs off again today. With the Richard Lee yard remaining in tremendous form he is worth a bet to see if I can prove the handicapper wrong.

Huntingdon 3.30 Amalric 1PT WIN@9/2 Various
I very rarely put selections up in bumpers but Amalric caught my eye when running a highly promising race in a competitive bumper in November. He was travelling extremely well on the inside going into the final half mile, but was short of room as the pace quickened losing valuable ground, but once clear stayed on all the way to the line to finish a comfortable 3rd to a well regarded winner.  Today represents a race of similar class, but given the normal improvement from race 1 to race 2 I expect him to go very close.

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Brackloon High - A Good Swerve

The market helped significantly yesterday to swerve putting up Brackloon High as a selection as I thought the 7/4 on offer early was skinny and the final sp of 5/4 was crazy. In the race he didn’t jump or travel that well and looks to me as though he will need 3 miles on a stiff track to be at his best. Two poor cards at Hexham and Leicester today and nothing caught my eye so another blank day.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

Losing Streak Broken

It was nice to break the losing run yesterday with Invictus travelling and jumping well for a comfortable win at Plumpton after a fantastic piece of race riding by Choc Thornton spotting and going for a gap on the inside of the hanging leader on the home turn. My second selection Annas Arch drifted badly in the market and always looked to be struggling on the soft ground and eventually finished 4th. So a 1PT profit on the day. Two meetings today at Fontwell and Sedgefield. I was interested in Brackloon High who makes his novice chase debut in the 1.10 at Fontwell after an eye catching run over hurdles at Cheltenham last time, but not at the price available given I read somewhere the Noel Chance stable has not had a winner for over a year.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Monday, 5 December 2011

Two Selections Today

Ballyfitz was well backed yesterday and was travelling well when making two horrendous mistakes down the back straight the 2nd of which resulted in a unseated rider. Whether he would have been in contention at the end of the race if he hadn’t made those mistakes is difficult to say. That’s now five successive loser over the past two weeks but I’m not going to panic and will be using the same approach to my selections and continue to looking for value. There are two meetings today at Musselburgh and Plumpton and for a Monday the cards are very good and there are two selections.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +27.42

Plumpton 1.10 Invictus 1PT WIN@2/1 B365 1st (7/4)
I am prepared to take on the Irish raider and favourite Gift Of Dgab in this five runner novice chase with Invictus for two reason. Firstly I was very impressed with his fencing debut at Hereford a couple of weeks ago where he got into a nice rhythm and fenced quick and accurately and could be called the winner along way from home and secondly the form of the Alan King stable (8 winners in the past fortnight) compared with the Tony Martin stable who have only managed one winner in the same period. Travelled and jumped well Choc went for a gap on brave gap on inside going into home turn which proved a winning move.

Musselburgh 1.20 Anna’s Arch 1PT WIN@9/4 Boylesports 4th (10/3)
Anna’s Arch was a blog selection back in August when very easily defying a penalty in a bumper at Bangor after being heavily backed. Two subsequent runs in bumpers failed to deliver a 3rd win( which is very difficult to achieve) and today he makes his novice hurdle debut in a very winnable race and from the market he has the ex winning flat racer Dimension to beat but I am always wary of flat horses starting their jumping careers at the age of 7. Weak in market and never travelling

Sunday, 4 December 2011

It Could Be A Slog

No selection yesterday but it was interesting that Bishophill Jack who was a selection a couple of weeks ago when he  jumped appallingly managed to win a very weak handicap chase at Wetherby. Two meetings today at Kelso and Warwick and the selection comes from Kelso. 
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Kelso 2.30 Ballyfitz 1PT WIN@9/2 B365 Unseated rider (10/3F)
I was at Cheltenham recently when Ballyfitz finished 2nd to Galaxy Rock and I remember at the time thinking “where did he come from” as he was doing his best work at the finish and really staying on up the hill. Although in the twilight of his career he ran well over these marathon trips last season finishing 4th in the Welsh National and 2nd in both the National trial at Haydock and in the Midlands National. The ground should not be an issue today and he has had a good break since Cheltenham whereas one or two of his rival have run much more recently in testing ground over these extended trips. With the stable in goodish form this represents a drop in class for Ballyfitz and I am expecting a very bold show.