Friday, 10 February 2012

Back With An Old Favourite.

After an enforced break due to the weather the blog is back with one selection tomorrow at the only National Hunt meeting to survive at Musselburgh.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

Musselburgh  2.35 Ostland 1/2PT E/W @9/1 Various Unplcd (9/1)
Ostland was a winning selection over fences for the blog back in October and returns after a break to carry top weight in this competitive handicap hurdle and is the selection for a number of factors. He is 8lb better off than his chase rating, it is his first hurdle attempt over 3 miles although he has won over the distance when chasing, he has a preference for going right handed, jockey Kielan Woods is well worth his 5lb claim and the stable remain in good form with a winner at Kempton today. In his last run over hurdles last April at Cheltenham over two and half miles he took up the running on the home turn but was outpaced going to the last and stayed on at one pace up the hill. As all his subsequent runs in chases have been over further the trip should be no problem and his trainer comment on his website that  I did not think he would be ready to run so quickly, however after a sparkling bit of work on Wednesday in Lambourn, we have decided to take a chance.  Taking the factors above into consideration and the price available I think it is worth backing him. Ran too free throughout race went on home turn and actually traded at 1.37 in running before weakening.

Tuesday, 7 February 2012

Little Value Yesterday

Lie Forret turned out to be poor value at odds on yesterday as the race turned into a tactical affair and he was outpaced from two out to the last before staying on strongly after the last. Given how the race was run he will be of interest again possibly in big handicap chases later in the season where he will get a truly run race and his stamina can come into play. So one point dropped on the day.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

With the cold snap still with us there will be no blog update now until Thursday at the earliest if Taunton survives.

Monday, 6 February 2012

Value In An Odds On Bet?

A week on from a successful winning bet with Sammy Spiderman at Ayr we return to the track again for another bet this time in the three runner novice chase.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +5.70 

Ayr 2.35 Lie Forrit 1PT WIN @5/6 Various 2nd(EvsF)
Only three runners go to post for this novice chase and whilst I do not like betting odds-on in novice chases at the prices Lie Forrit appears to be a value bet.  Easily the best of these over hurdles he made a very pleasing novice chase debut at Kelso in November after being off 20 months with injury. What impressed me about his debut run was his quick accurate jumping and given quite a bit to do from 3 out showed great battling qualities to run down Blenheim Brook on the run in. Whether it was the bounce factor or the effects of a hard race Lie Forrit returned to Kelso 25 days later and didn’t jump as well and was unable to peg back Blenheim Brook’s stable mate Bold Sir Brian on the run in. Today the step up in trip is a big plus for Lie Forrit who at his best over hurdles is 18lbs better than Blenheim Brook so at the current price is in my opinion a value bet. Outpaced at critical stage in a very tactical race and stayed on really well after the last.