Two For Today

Little time for a full write up today but two selections.

Newbury 12.20 Arbeo 1/2PT E/W @9/2 various(1ST 4/1JF made all. A welcome winner for the blog)

Newbury 2.10 Maringo Bay 1/2PT E/W@8/1 various(NR but interesting if takes up engagement at Haydock tomorrow)

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Bit Better Racing Today

Saturday 24^th March

Apologies for last Saturday’s selection who I was extremely bullish about, but Maringo Bay ran no sort of race at all and I am not aware of a reason for his poor performance.  I still believe there is a big handicap to be won by the horse but I think it will be next season now. The racing has been dire this week and nothing has interested me and until today where I will be backing one horse who has appeared on the blog before.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.52 2012 = -3.86

Stratford 2.00 Loose Chips 1PT WIN 3/1 @Bet 365

Loose Chip was a winning selection earlier in the season at Towcester and was disappointing just over a month ago at Ffos Las, when after travelling well behind the leaders turning in he stopped very quickly down the home straight as was almost pulled up. At the time it looked to me that something was amiss and it transpired that there was coughing in the Charlie Longsdon yard at the time. Assuming the horse has now recovered I feel this race is a good opportunity for him to get back to winning ways given the way he won a Towcester and that fact the trainer was aiming him for a big race at Sandown prior to his last run. 

Milder Weather At Last

A few days break but now it appears with the milder weather that National Hunt Racing is returning back to normal and we have two meetings at Southwell and Kelso. Saturday’s selection Ostland ran okay in the circumstances as he was very fresh throughout the race and kicked on turning for home and look at one stage as if he might win comfortably(touched 1.37 in running on Betfair), before weakening dramatically after the 2^nd last.  One selection today at Kelso.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +23.08 2012 = +3.7

Kelso  2.40 Swallow 1/2PT E/W @11/1 Various

Swallow get into this first handicap off a mark of 105 after 3 runs in novice hurdles this season when priced at 100/1, 66/1 and 100/1.The form of his last run at Doncaster looks impressive with the four horses finishing in front of him winning last time out. Swallow jumped exceptionally throughout the race and only weakened from two out.The train comments on his website that the most interesting runners for the middle to the end of the week will probably be Swallow at Kelso in the 0-110 Handicap Hurdle as the form of his Doncaster race is looking solid. With the stable having two winners yesterday and stable jockey Brian Hughes being onboard for the first time this looks a good opportunity for Swallow to open is account.

Winner Eventually and Time To Reflect

Swincombe Flame finally managed to end the dreadful losing run of 13 bets yesterday, when getting up on the line to win by a nose at 9/2 having been advised at 13/2. These types of  losing runs which will always occur at the price range in which I operate but this one has contained an enormous amount of bad luck (beaten by a nose, short head and a solid jumper falling at the first) so it was nice to see the luck change yesterday and the nose verdict to go my way. For those who have been following the blog regularly I hope we can kick on from here and look to build up to a profit of around 50PTS which is what I have achieved over the past 5 years. Thanks for those readers particularly Mark from Patient Speculation who have commented throughout the bad run, although I always tried to remain positive there were times when I was pulling my hair out as results failed to go my way. A classic example yesterday being Alfie Spinner who ran a perfectly solid race, but came up against a much better horse in Frascati Park, who I had dismissed on the basis of two factors 1. He had never been over the trip and 2. All his best form was going the other way round. Neither proved to be a hindrance and he went out and made all with Alfie Spinner chasing him the whole way. This is what I love about gambling on  horse racing you think you have every angle covered but until the race has been run there could be other variables that you didn't consider or weren't aware of.

As Kelso has been abandoned today there are no selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94 

Poor Effort – Confidence Restore

Sole Survivor put in a very poor effort yesterday. I was never comfortable with the way he was travelling and although he was in second turning for home he drop away very quickly approaching the 2^nd last. He is better than that run and he clearly has some kind of problem.

So far December has been a wretched month for the Blog with just one winner from ten selections and in an attempt to restore some confidence last night I reviewed my stats below for the year which are showing a healthy 51PT profit and a 19% return on investment.

	Monthly	Cum
	Points	Points
Jan	22.38	22.38
Feb	19.30	41.68
Mar	-14.42	27.26
Apl	-5.66	21.60
May	-5.41	16.19
June	18.50	34.69
July	-6.50	28.19
Aug	2.83	31.02
Sept	7.50	38.52
Oct	1.91	40.43
Nov	18.75	59.18
Dec	-7.60	51.58

Having discussed with a non gambling friend last night he was very impressed that firstly I made money from backing horses and secondly that my returns are well in excess of what could be earned investing in the financial markets. Both these comments and a few beers help restore some confidence that I do know what I’m doing and from experience I know there will be good and bad runs and in truth I am doing nothing differently now in my selection approach to what I was doing early in the year or when I was having a good run in November. It is a tried and tested approach that has stood me in good stead for a number of years so I can see no reason to change it. The only thing I am now doing differently is having less bets as a result of the Blog which has added discipline to my betting and is stopping me betting to chase my losses. Having reviewed my selections over the past month I feel positive that I will soon blog a winner again as the majority of my selections are being placed without winning.

Two cards today at Doncaster and Kelso and after reviewing the cards there is nothing which stands out as a betting opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

It Could Be A Slog

No selection yesterday but it was interesting that Bishophill Jack who was a selection a couple of weeks ago when he  jumped appallingly managed to win a very weak handicap chase at Wetherby. Two meetings today at Kelso and Warwick and the selection comes from Kelso. 

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Kelso 2.30 Ballyfitz 1PT WIN@9/2 B365 Unseated rider (10/3F)

I was at Cheltenham recently when Ballyfitz finished 2^nd to Galaxy Rock and I remember at the time thinking “where did he come from” as he was doing his best work at the finish and really staying on up the hill. Although in the twilight of his career he ran well over these marathon trips last season finishing 4^th in the Welsh National and 2^nd in both the National trial at Haydock and in the Midlands National. The ground should not be an issue today and he has had a good break since Cheltenham whereas one or two of his rival have run much more recently in testing ground over these extended trips. With the stable in goodish form this represents a drop in class for Ballyfitz and I am expecting a very bold show.

Saturday 15th October

Disappointingly Damman was a non runner yesterday as I was looking forward to seeing how he would have got on. I had a pleasurable day a Cheltenham yesterday meeting in person Dave Arthur who writes Dreams and Disasters - An Owners Blog. Two meetings today at Cheltenham and Kempton and a selection at each meeting.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81

Kelso  2.10 1PT WIN Vosges@13/2

Last season Vosges caught my eye on a number of occasions with his front running tactics and fast accurate jumping. When I saw him at Haydock on February I was impressed by his size and scope and looked an embryonic chaser. Still only 4 he makes his novice chase debut today in a fairly competitive handicap, but having read an excellent James Ewart stable visit report on Ben Aitkens http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk website the stable seen very confident this horse could be something special. Based on this information and the price currently on offer it is well worth a punt.

Cheltenham 4.25  1/2PT E/W Secret Tune @8/1

A first glance at the declarations yesterday the jockey booking of AP McCoy for the Shaun Lycett trained Secret Tune stood out as the horse had caught my eye running well twice on the flat in recent weeks.  Formally trained by Tom George Secret Tune has slipped down to a very attractive mark and ran particularly well in this race last year, leading at the last before tiring up the hill. The horse has been well backed overnight having opened at 14/1 so a big run expected.