One at Doncaster

Wednesday 8^th January 2014

Doncaster 3.20 Dardanella 1PT WIN  7/2 Various 

Winner of bumper and mares novice hurdle she looks well handicapped off 112 for her handicap debut in this mares event.  Stable remains in good form and her profile looks more progressive than the favourite Queen Spud. (3rd 7/2 - looked to have a chance 3 out but readily left behind, may need further.)

YTD Running Total -2.10PTS

Two For Today

Little time for a full write up today but two selections.

Newbury 12.20 Arbeo 1/2PT E/W @9/2 various(1ST 4/1JF made all. A welcome winner for the blog)

Newbury 2.10 Maringo Bay 1/2PT E/W@8/1 various(NR but interesting if takes up engagement at Haydock tomorrow)

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Nothing Today

Another day of competitive racing with three meetings at Doncaster, Musselburgh and Newbury and there is no selection. November has shown a small profit and I will update the pages later.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Another Well Handicapped Horse?

Vogses finished 2^nd of Thursday, but I totally underestimated Chester Lad who was heavily backed and jumped and travelled much better than my selection. Despite not winning on five attempts over fences this season Vosges still remains on the radar, probably for a novice handicap chase in the North. There are three meetings today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. I am off to Cheltenham for Festival Trials day and there are one selection on what looks a tremendous card.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +26.08 2012 = +4.2

Cheltenham 4.15 Hinterland 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 3RD (15/8F)

This look a very clever piece of placement by Paul Nicholls as Hinterland being a 4 year old receives 11lb weight for age allowance, so therefore runs off a rating of 130 as opposed to his official mark of 141. I saw Hinterland win at Cheltenham back in November where he easily accounted for subsequent Grade 1 winner Hollow Tree, but was no match for Baby Mix when set off 2/7 favourite in December.  Interestingly Hinterland had an entry in the earlier Juvenile hurdle but the trainer has decided not to take on Baby Mix, Hollow Tree and Grumeti , but go for this race which I consider to be the easier option and I don’t believe the trainer would run him in such a competitive handicap unless he believed him to be well in. 

Poor Effort – Confidence Restore

Sole Survivor put in a very poor effort yesterday. I was never comfortable with the way he was travelling and although he was in second turning for home he drop away very quickly approaching the 2^nd last. He is better than that run and he clearly has some kind of problem.

So far December has been a wretched month for the Blog with just one winner from ten selections and in an attempt to restore some confidence last night I reviewed my stats below for the year which are showing a healthy 51PT profit and a 19% return on investment.

	Monthly	Cum
	Points	Points
Jan	22.38	22.38
Feb	19.30	41.68
Mar	-14.42	27.26
Apl	-5.66	21.60
May	-5.41	16.19
June	18.50	34.69
July	-6.50	28.19
Aug	2.83	31.02
Sept	7.50	38.52
Oct	1.91	40.43
Nov	18.75	59.18
Dec	-7.60	51.58

Having discussed with a non gambling friend last night he was very impressed that firstly I made money from backing horses and secondly that my returns are well in excess of what could be earned investing in the financial markets. Both these comments and a few beers help restore some confidence that I do know what I’m doing and from experience I know there will be good and bad runs and in truth I am doing nothing differently now in my selection approach to what I was doing early in the year or when I was having a good run in November. It is a tried and tested approach that has stood me in good stead for a number of years so I can see no reason to change it. The only thing I am now doing differently is having less bets as a result of the Blog which has added discipline to my betting and is stopping me betting to chase my losses. Having reviewed my selections over the past month I feel positive that I will soon blog a winner again as the majority of my selections are being placed without winning.

Two cards today at Doncaster and Kelso and after reviewing the cards there is nothing which stands out as a betting opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

An Old Faithful

Two poor selections on Thursday both running well below what I expected and no selection yesterday. As I write Lingfield has been abandoned so only Doncaster (still in doubt) and Cheltenham remain and there is one selection at Cheltenham.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +26.42

Cheltenham 2.30 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W@8/1 Various

Great Endeavour was a selection when he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup a month ago and in my analysis for the race I wrote “Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2^nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival” and he won the race very easily. His subsequent run in the Hennessey was a good one as he was given every chance by Timmy Murphy to get the trip and having hit the front jumping the 2^nd last he clearly did not stay the 3 mile 2 furlong trip. Today he runs against a number of horses he beat in the Paddy Power but from a 10lb high mark, but I feel he is capable of beating them again as he was always travelling so comfortably throughout that race and he could be named the winner at the top of the hill. Assuming the Hennessay  has not taken too much out of him the current price is fair value.