Plenty of Racing Today

After a blank day yesterday National Hunt racing returns today with three cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter and whilst there are plenty of runners of interest there are no official blog bets as the racing is fairly competitive as exemplified by the 2.05 at Newbury where I would be interested in backing 5 of the 6 runners if they were not running against each other.

Two horses of interest today:- 

Utt 12.25 My Flora (Very good hunter chaser during the last couple of season and now being professionally trained by Donald McCain. I assume the Mares only race at the Cheltenham festival will be the long term target if they stick to the hurdling route so should have the class to win this race over two miles but not prepared to back at odds on to find out as there will be better opportunities to back her over longer trips later in the season).

Taun 3.55 Miss Exhibitionist ( Up 7lb for winning well at Lingfield last time and could be able to defy the rise now dropped back into a mares only handicap)

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Paddy Power Gold Cup Day

Small profit yesterday with Dodging Bullets win. Having had numerous looks at the cards today I can find no bets.

P&L for 2012 -5.44

Back After Break With Two Selections

Back after the 10 day break with two meetings at Plumpton and Uttoxeter and there is a selection at each meeting.

P&L for 2012 -5.44 

Plumpton 2.30 Khazium 1PT WIN@5/2 B365 (2ND 11/4)
Khazium made a satisfactory introduction to hurdles at Stratford 12 days ago when runner-up to Third Half. Brendan Powell does well with his juvenile hurdlers and given this race is no more competitive than the race at Worcester I would expect him to go very close given his hurdling experience. Travelled and jumped well but found one too good again.

Uttoxeter 3.40 Oscar Prairie  0.5PT E/W @13/2 WHill (PU 7/4F)
Oscar Prairie returns to chasing off a very attractive mark in this very competitive handicap chase. Subject of a wind operation during last season, his form improved and he had the pace to win a Kempton bumper for jumpers, when gambled on, before winning a handicap hurdle off 125 at the same track. He runs today off his old handicap chase mark of 116 and I expect him to be primed to go very close given this is trainer Warren Greatrex’s first runner from his new base at the historic Uplands stable. Heavily backed but never travelling or jumping with any fluency.Explanation from BHA website Wayne Hutchinson, the rider of OSCAR PRAIRIE (IRE), which pulled up, reported that the gelding slipped going into the first losing his confidence and never travelled thereafter.

Final Post Before Another Break

A quiet few days on the blog with nothing of real interest lately. Today there is one meeting at Uttoxeter,  the last National Hunt meeting prior to the September break and there is one selection in the novice chase.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Uttoxeter  4.20 Alazan 1PT WIN @ 7/2 Bet365 (2nd 5/6F)

Alazan is a decent hurdler, winning 4 times and although not having won for over a couple of years has been running well recently, both on the flat and over hurdles and makes his debut in this fairly competitive event.  Market rival Alfraamsey in receipt of a weight for age allowance of 12lbs has failed twice to take advantage of his allowance and this looks more competitive. With Richard Johnson onboard in preference to either of the Tim Vaughan runners Alazan should  make a winning start to his chasing career if his jumping is up to scratch.

Back With A Big One

Apologies for the lack of blog postings over the past few weeks, but unfortunately I have been really business at work and working away has resulted in racing and the blog having to take a back seat. With Cheltenham having passed by in a haze of business meeting I am somewhat refreshed coming back to the blog with a big one (3 times my normal stake) in the hope of getting the winners flowing again.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +18.52 2012 = -0.86

Uttoxeter 3.20 Maringo Bay 1 and 1/2PT E/W @10/1 various PU 8/1 

I have selected Maringo Bay on his last two runs and though beaten into second on both occasions I have not been too disappointed as I have had to accept he has beaten by better horses, but tomorrow is different in that he makes is handicap debut in what I think is a below average Midlands National and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t win. There are many factors in his favour:-

1.   The booking of Noel Fehily. Trainer Charlie Mann mentioned in an interview when Noel took up the post of stable jockey to Emma Lavelle earlier this year that Noel would “still ride the good ones for him”

2.   Off a rating of 130 and a weight of 10-7 in this he look very attractively handicapped in comparison to the opposition

3.   His form is rock solid with both Alfie Spinner and Mics Delight who have beaten him in his last two runs running well at Cheltenham and when he won his novice hurdle last season at Ffos Las last season he beat Teaforthree who won the 4 miler at Cheltenham earlier in the week and Invictus who was one of the favourites foir the RSA chase before picking up an injury.

My only slight doubt is the ground which will be much quicker than he has run on previously and the fact he looks as though he has been crying out for a trip this is a big step up in distance from the three miles and less he has been running over so far this season, although he did hold an entry in the 4 miler at the festival, so hence the each way rather than straight win. 
Terrible performance. Never jumped with any fluency and once tempo increased there was no response and he was soon beat and pulled up.

Another Well Handicapped Horse?

Vogses finished 2^nd of Thursday, but I totally underestimated Chester Lad who was heavily backed and jumped and travelled much better than my selection. Despite not winning on five attempts over fences this season Vosges still remains on the radar, probably for a novice handicap chase in the North. There are three meetings today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. I am off to Cheltenham for Festival Trials day and there are one selection on what looks a tremendous card.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +26.08 2012 = +4.2

Cheltenham 4.15 Hinterland 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 3RD (15/8F)

This look a very clever piece of placement by Paul Nicholls as Hinterland being a 4 year old receives 11lb weight for age allowance, so therefore runs off a rating of 130 as opposed to his official mark of 141. I saw Hinterland win at Cheltenham back in November where he easily accounted for subsequent Grade 1 winner Hollow Tree, but was no match for Baby Mix when set off 2/7 favourite in December.  Interestingly Hinterland had an entry in the earlier Juvenile hurdle but the trainer has decided not to take on Baby Mix, Hollow Tree and Grumeti , but go for this race which I consider to be the easier option and I don’t believe the trainer would run him in such a competitive handicap unless he believed him to be well in. 

When Your Luck Is Out

No luck again yesterday with Rowan Tiger making a bad mistake at the third last when in front which ultimately cost him third place on the run in. However this was an above average novice hurdle with the winner Grumeti  being talked about as a Triumph hurdle candidate, so Rowan Tiger remains one to follow particularly if dropped into a handicap off his current mark. Three meetings today at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and there is one selection at Warwick in an attempted to round off the year with a winning selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.42

Wawick  2.20 Tafika 1/2PT E/W @8/1B365 Fell (8/1)

A very competitive handicap chase but the one which caught my eye is Tafika who jumped exceptionally well on his season debut at Bangor earlier this month, before lack of peak fitness told and Denis O’Regan accepted defeat before two out allowing him to coast home in his own time. The trainer states on his website that he had a wind operation in the spring and may be a very well-handicapped horse. Given that if Bangor was a pipe opener then given the normal improvement between runs he should go very close today . As I have wrote this the 9/1 that was available has disappeared and 8/1 is now the best available price. Unbelievable Denis O'Regan fails to arrive from Newbury on time and he falls at the first. 

Thursday 13th October

Another day another winner yesterday with Persian Gates winning very easily, but having taken 7/1 the evening before I was hit with a hefty 25p deduction so only a 2.81pt profit on the day. Still better than a 1pt loss. Things are going well at the moment with the last three selections winning, but one of the reason for doing the blog is to add further discipline to my betting and to stop me looking for winners. There are two meetings today at Wincanton and Uttoxeter and today is a typical day were in the past I would go searching for winners and probably end up losing on the day because nothing stands out as a strong bet, instead of waiting until the next opportunity comes along. After all there will be plenty of selections to back or lay between tomorrow and the end of April. I'm off to Cheltenham tomorrow for the two day Open fixture so should be able to find a few selections over the coming days.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81