Happy New Year

Wednesday 1^st January 2014

Cheltenham 12.10 Ballyalton 1PT WIN@9/4 Various 

Ballyalton was visually very impressive at the last Cheltenham meeting at a trip short of his best.  Racing Pulse is a big danger based on his impressive performance at Newcastle, but I think Ballyalton will have too much class and speed for him over this trip.
4TH 3/1(drifted in market, not able to quicken going to last, disappointing run)

Cheltenham 2.30 Double Ross 1PT WIN@2/1 Various 

I expect him to be able to defy the 7lb increase for a victory in a much more competitive race here at the last meeting, where he had the race won from the top of the hill.  Stable amongst winners again yesterday.
1ST 11/8F rule 4 (well backed, always in control, comfortable) 1.9PT Profit

Catterick 3.25 Five in a Row 1PT WIN@10/11Bet 365

Winner of a point and a bumper (second has won twice since). He was highly tried on hurdle debut behind Ballyalton and Oscar Rock. This represents a drop in class and the step up in distance is also a plus.
2ND 10/11F (disappointing in a slow tactical affair).

YTD running total -0.10PTS

Another Shortie

This looks a two horse race on paper and given Wishful Thinking is a class 1 performer getting weight from a handicapper Evs looks extremely good value.

Cheltenham 2.20 Wishful Thinking@Evs B365(1st @8/11F class told despite so poor jumping)

P&L for 2012 -5.44

Paddy Power Gold Cup Day

Small profit yesterday with Dodging Bullets win. Having had numerous looks at the cards today I can find no bets.

P&L for 2012 -5.44

Shorties

One bet since I last had a chance to post which was Time For Spring last Saturday. I nice welcomed winner that I unfortunately didn't have time to post.

Off to Cheltenham today for the 3 day Paddy Power meeting. The card looks competitive and the two horses I will be backing today are class animal in small fields which are reflected in their prices.

P&L for 2012 -5.69

1.15 Cheltenham Fingel Bay 1PT WIN @5/4 various (2nd 5/4F beaten by a much better horse in Dynaste probably will win when stepped up to 3 miles)
2.35 Cheltenham Dodging Bullets 1PT WIN @ 11/10 various(1st 5/4F made all under an enterprising ride by Ruby Walsh)

Nothing Today

With the ground having changed at Cheltenham there is no selection today, but there will be at least one selection tomorrow, which I will post later today once the prices are available.

Another Well Handicapped Horse?

Vogses finished 2^nd of Thursday, but I totally underestimated Chester Lad who was heavily backed and jumped and travelled much better than my selection. Despite not winning on five attempts over fences this season Vosges still remains on the radar, probably for a novice handicap chase in the North. There are three meetings today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. I am off to Cheltenham for Festival Trials day and there are one selection on what looks a tremendous card.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +26.08 2012 = +4.2

Cheltenham 4.15 Hinterland 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 3RD (15/8F)

This look a very clever piece of placement by Paul Nicholls as Hinterland being a 4 year old receives 11lb weight for age allowance, so therefore runs off a rating of 130 as opposed to his official mark of 141. I saw Hinterland win at Cheltenham back in November where he easily accounted for subsequent Grade 1 winner Hollow Tree, but was no match for Baby Mix when set off 2/7 favourite in December.  Interestingly Hinterland had an entry in the earlier Juvenile hurdle but the trainer has decided not to take on Baby Mix, Hollow Tree and Grumeti , but go for this race which I consider to be the easier option and I don’t believe the trainer would run him in such a competitive handicap unless he believed him to be well in. 

Happy New Year To All Readers

Welcome to 2012 hopefully on a gambling front it will start in much better fashion than 2011 ended, as yesterday’s selection Tafika sum up what a disastrous month December was when falling at the first fence. The only comfort I take from my last two selections has been that they were also selected by fellow bloggers, Rowan Tiger by Patient Speculation and Tafika by Longshot, whose knowledge and reasoning I greatly respect.

On to today with five National Hunt meetings at Catterick, Cheltenham, Exeter, Fakenham and, Musselburgh. My initial selection for the day was Hawk Mountain who looked on a very good mark for his handicap debut at Fakenham and I thought the 9/4 on offer last night was massive. Sadly the ground must now be too soft and he is now a non runner, which leaves me with one other selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.42

Cheltenham 1.05 Sonovic 1PT WIN @5/4 Various Unplcd (6/5F)

I very rarely recommend backing this short but Sonovic put a highly impressive case debut at Newbury chasing home Grand Crus and given the way he won the Feltham last week I expect him to take this in receipt of weight  from Invictus and Solix on his way to better things. Paul Nichols comments on his Betfair blog stengthen my support for this selection as he comment that Sonovic delighted me when winning his novice hurdles last season, as this point winner has always been a chaser in the making. And he showed just that when running Grands Crus to two lengths at Newbury, albeit getting 7lb. The winner obviously advertised the merit of that form when winning the Feltham so impressively, meaning we clearly have a Sun Alliance horse on our hands. That said, he is not short of speed so I don't think the step back in trip will be that much of a problem.

An Old Faithful

Two poor selections on Thursday both running well below what I expected and no selection yesterday. As I write Lingfield has been abandoned so only Doncaster (still in doubt) and Cheltenham remain and there is one selection at Cheltenham.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +26.42

Cheltenham 2.30 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W@8/1 Various

Great Endeavour was a selection when he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup a month ago and in my analysis for the race I wrote “Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2^nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival” and he won the race very easily. His subsequent run in the Hennessey was a good one as he was given every chance by Timmy Murphy to get the trip and having hit the front jumping the 2^nd last he clearly did not stay the 3 mile 2 furlong trip. Today he runs against a number of horses he beat in the Paddy Power but from a 10lb high mark, but I feel he is capable of beating them again as he was always travelling so comfortably throughout that race and he could be named the winner at the top of the hill. Assuming the Hennessay  has not taken too much out of him the current price is fair value.

Great To Be Back To Winning Ways

Nice to bounce back after Friday’s disappointment with an excellent result in the Paddy Power with Great Endeavour delivering a highly impressive performance to win at an SP of 8/1. I hope most of you who have backed him managed to get the 12/1 which was available when I posted the blog for a 7.5pt profit on the day. If you didn’t get the 12/1 consider opening accounts with all major bookmakers (links available on the right hand side of the blog). There are two meetings tomorrow at Cheltenham and Fonwell and the selection comes at Fontwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.47

Fontwell 12.55 It’s A Classic 1PT WIN  @6/1 Bet365 2nd (8/1)

I don’t usually back horses with letters in their form but this is such a bad race that I really fancy It’s A Classic on the price on offer even though in his last three runs he has been brought down, pulled up and refused. This hurdle race over 3 miles and 3 furlongs on soft ground is going to be a real stamina test and even though It’s A Classic refused last time out at Carlisle he caught my eye as he jumped and travelled well and was still in contention at the 2^nd last in a competitive 3 mile handicap chase. Renard a winner for the blog earlier this week also refused in this race. Tomorrow he reverts to hurdles for the first time in 5 years off a mark 9lb lower than what he ran off at Carlisle last time. Although he is 10 he has only had 26 starts and his form is far better than anything else in the race with 4 wins 4 seconds and 4 thirds, something I doubt any of his rivals will ever achieve. The stable is in reasonable form particularly on the flat and as this is such a bad race at 6/1 he is worth taking a chance with.

Hoping For A Better Day

A very poor day yesterday with all four selections failing to deliver. Firstly I found out after posting the Blog that the priority for Zaru yesterday was to get him round after his fall last time and the market drift reflected this. He ran ok to finish 5^th and is now qualified for handicap hurdles so remains of interest. Time For Spring looked very one paced when the race quickened from the top of the hill and finished very tired in 5^th.  Prospect Wells looked like a welcome winner as he past me half way up the Cheltenham run in, being ¾ of a length clear but his stride was shortening and Steps To Freedom was coming with a fair rattle and nabbed him on the line by a neck. Finally the way Grand Crus was travelling I doubt Cue Card would have beaten him even if he had stood up. So 4pts dropped on a very disappointing day.

Three meetings today at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. Having analysed the cards there is one selection in the big race at Cheltenham.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +14.97

Cheltenham 2.35 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W @12/1 Various 1st 8/1

Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2^nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival. That day the he had jumped well but looked as though he probably didn’t stay the 3 miles, so the drop back in trip should suit and with the current form of the David Pipe yard(3 winners yesterday) the 12/1 available looks  good each way value.

Cheltenham For The Next Three Days

Off to Cheltenham today for the three day Paddy Power meeting so having analysed the Cheltenham and Newcastle cards in some detail I have come up with no less than four selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.97

Newcastle 12.30 Zaru 1/2PT E/W@6/1 B365 5th(9/1)

Overall  Zaru has a disappointing profile having failed to win a race so far, but I am the price I am prepared to give him one last chance. A hard puller that has been difficult to settle in previous races he showed similar traits at Kelso first time out this season, but was still in with a chance at the 2^nd last when he fell. The winner of that race Simply Ned defied a penalty in very easy fashion at Kelso earlier this week.  This is no better than the race at Kelso so assuming Brian Hughes can get him to settle then there is a good chance he will be able to fulfil the promise he showed in bumpers last season.

Cheltenham 1.10 Time For Spring 1/2PT E/W@6/1 Various 5th(10/3F)

A winner of his only novice chase Time For Spring looks well handicapped off a mark of 125 and the jockey booking of Sam Waley-Cohen looks significant. Although I initially was not overly impressed with his win at Carlisle the form of the races has worked out well with the 2^nd and 3^rd winning next time out and his trainer commented after the race that he will improve again when he steps up to 3 miles which he does for the first time tomorrow.

Cheltenham 2.55 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN@7/2 Boylesports 2nd (9/2)

I was very impressed with the debut of Prospect Wells at Chepstow just over two weeks ago in particular the ease with which he scythed through the field from the 3^rd last. He was a decent stayer on the flat  and the extra test of Cheltenham will play to his strengths together with the weight he receives from the favourite Steps To Freedom.

Cheltenham 4.05 Cue Card 1PT WIN @13/8 William Hill UR (7/4)

Hill

This race is worth the admission fee alone as Cue Card takes on Grand Crus in best novice chase of the season so far. Cue Card really impressed me at this meeting last season and was very impressed with his seasonal debut at Chepstow  with the second and third winning since. I expect Grand Crus to develop into one of the top staying novices this season, but over this trip, with a fitness advantage and his stable bang in form it has to be Cue Card for me.

Saturday 15th October

Disappointingly Damman was a non runner yesterday as I was looking forward to seeing how he would have got on. I had a pleasurable day a Cheltenham yesterday meeting in person Dave Arthur who writes Dreams and Disasters - An Owners Blog. Two meetings today at Cheltenham and Kempton and a selection at each meeting.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81

Kelso  2.10 1PT WIN Vosges@13/2

Last season Vosges caught my eye on a number of occasions with his front running tactics and fast accurate jumping. When I saw him at Haydock on February I was impressed by his size and scope and looked an embryonic chaser. Still only 4 he makes his novice chase debut today in a fairly competitive handicap, but having read an excellent James Ewart stable visit report on Ben Aitkens http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk website the stable seen very confident this horse could be something special. Based on this information and the price currently on offer it is well worth a punt.

Cheltenham 4.25  1/2PT E/W Secret Tune @8/1

A first glance at the declarations yesterday the jockey booking of AP McCoy for the Shaun Lycett trained Secret Tune stood out as the horse had caught my eye running well twice on the flat in recent weeks.  Formally trained by Tom George Secret Tune has slipped down to a very attractive mark and ran particularly well in this race last year, leading at the last before tiring up the hill. The horse has been well backed overnight having opened at 14/1 so a big run expected.

Friday 14th October

No bet yesterday and given the results I’m glad I took the day off.  I’m off to Cheltenham today for the two day Open fixture, but I have to say the card tomorrow is pretty disappointing due to the good to firm ground. Having been through the card I have found one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81

Cheltenham 5.05  1/2PT E/W Damman@12/1 with Boylesports

I don’t usually play in Amateur riders handicap chases but today I’m going make an exception and take a chance with Damman at the price available, who I saw running at Stratford in the novice hunter chase final in May. Having won his previous hunter chase at Cheltenham he was well backed that night but the tight Stratford track clearly didn’t suit him and was under pressure and struggling with over a circuit to go. To his credit he battled really well and ending up running on again to take third. The return to a more galloping track like Cheltenham, the fact he has form on quick ground together with the desire for his trainer Fergal O’Brien (having spent the past 19 years as Head Lad at the hugely successful Nigel Twiston-Davies yard) to make an impact with his first runners at his local track all add up to me expecting a big run. 

Thursday 13th October

Another day another winner yesterday with Persian Gates winning very easily, but having taken 7/1 the evening before I was hit with a hefty 25p deduction so only a 2.81pt profit on the day. Still better than a 1pt loss. Things are going well at the moment with the last three selections winning, but one of the reason for doing the blog is to add further discipline to my betting and to stop me looking for winners. There are two meetings today at Wincanton and Uttoxeter and today is a typical day were in the past I would go searching for winners and probably end up losing on the day because nothing stands out as a strong bet, instead of waiting until the next opportunity comes along. After all there will be plenty of selections to back or lay between tomorrow and the end of April. I'm off to Cheltenham tomorrow for the two day Open fixture so should be able to find a few selections over the coming days.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81