Saturday, 28 January 2012

Another Well Handicapped Horse?

Vogses finished 2nd of Thursday, but I totally underestimated Chester Lad who was heavily backed and jumped and travelled much better than my selection. Despite not winning on five attempts over fences this season Vosges still remains on the radar, probably for a novice handicap chase in the North. There are three meetings today at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. I am off to Cheltenham for Festival Trials day and there are one selection on what looks a tremendous card.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +26.08 2012 = +4.2

Cheltenham 4.15 Hinterland 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 3RD (15/8F)
This look a very clever piece of placement by Paul Nicholls as Hinterland being a 4 year old receives 11lb weight for age allowance, so therefore runs off a rating of 130 as opposed to his official mark of 141. I saw Hinterland win at Cheltenham back in November where he easily accounted for subsequent Grade 1 winner Hollow Tree, but was no match for Baby Mix when set off 2/7 favourite in December.  Interestingly Hinterland had an entry in the earlier Juvenile hurdle but the trainer has decided not to take on Baby Mix, Hollow Tree and Grumeti , but go for this race which I consider to be the easier option and I don’t believe the trainer would run him in such a competitive handicap unless he believed him to be well in. 

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Third Time Lucky For An Old Selection

Two meetings today at Newcastle and Warwick and there is one selection at Newcastle.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +27.08 2012 = +5.2

Newcastle 1.45 Vosges 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 2ND (15/8)
Vosges is an old favourite of the blog having been selected twice already this season. Following his last selection I wrote” James Ewart had four runners yesterday and my selection Vosges was the only one not to win. Although beaten I am not disappointed,  as it is something you have to accept in this game and at the prices Vosges was the only horse I wanted back at. As expected there was good support for him in the market and he jumped well but was unable to peg back the front running Carrietau. So one point dropped on the day, but I would expect to get that back from Vosges later in the season”. So today is the day I expect to get the loses back on Vosges as subsequent to this run he has had two further creditable runs at Musselburgh finishing 2nd to Maggio who had previously run behind Al Ferof at Cheltenham and 3rd last time out behind Charminster. It is this last run which makes him a selection again today. In this race he set out to force the pace with Charminster and as a result didn’t jump as well as normal and looked to be going a stride quicker than he wanted. As they turned for home Charminister’s class showed and he pulled clear and the early efforts told on Vosges allowing Degas Art to come and grab 2nd after the last. I was very impressed with Charminster and he went into the notebook as one to follow so assuming Vosges is ridden with more restraint I am convince he will reverse the form with Degas Art and I don’t think the Donald McCain horse Chesters Lad is in the same class as Charminster.Oops got that wrong. Correct on reversing form with Degas Art, but Chester Lad looked better than I thought he would be.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Discipline and Patience

Two cards today at Hereford and Musselburgh and once again after reviewing the cards there are no selections. As I have mentioned previously the main reason for doing the blog is to add discipline to my betting and stop me betting for the sake of it, so after a good weekend I am happy to be disciplined and wait patiently for the betting next opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +27.08 2012 = +5.2 

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Keeping The Winnings Safe

One uninspiring meeting today at Leicester so there is no bet.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +27.08 2012 = +5.2 

Monday, 23 January 2012

Quiet Day After Successful Weekend

Loose Chips was very impressive yesterday, always travelling well and quickening up from the home turn to win comfortably. What surprised me was he drifted out to 7/1 considering I thought he had the best form in the race – but I’m not complaining :-).  So a very successful weekend with both selections winning moving the blog back into profit for the year. One meeting at Wetherby today, but having reviewed the card a couple of times there is no selection today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +27.08 2012 = +5.20 

Sunday, 22 January 2012

Chance To Build On Yesterday's Winner

Nice winner yesterday with Shuil Royale who had been on my radar all season and I thought he was as well handicapped as he proved in the race. I expect him to go on from this and continue to progress up the ratings. A 3.94PT profit on the day which finally gets me in profit for the year. Two meetings today at Market Rasen  and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.88 2012= +1.00

Towcester 1.40 Loose Chips 1/2PT E/W @5/1 Various 1st (7/1)
On paper this looks a fairly competitive novice hurdle race with all the major stables (Pipe, Henderson, King) represented, but the one I fancy is the Charlie Longsdon trained Loose Chips who made a very encouraging hurdles debut here on Boxing Day when making a bad mistake at the last which ultimately cost him the race. Having watched a replay of the race what I liked was despite the mistake he was closing all the way to the line and the winner Gores Island who passed him at the last has gone on to defy a penalty in a much more competitive race at Doncaster. Surprised market drift given I thought it had the best form on offer - always travelling well and beat the favourites comfortably.