One For Warwick

Saturday 11^th January 2014

Warwick 1.55 Sew On Target 1PT WIN  4/1 Paddy Power

Been running well from the front in much more competitive handicaps at Cheltenham. Has won on the ground and this represents a big drop in class.(Unplaced 5/1 - unable to dominate and soon beaten after two out - disappointing effort)

YTD Running Total -3.10PTS

Wet Wednesday - My Thoughts and Selections

With Warwick being off, only the meeting at Hexham survives and I expect the ground to be desperate. However there is one selection for which I expect the ground to pose no problems:-

Hexham 1.40 Dotties Dilema 1PT WIN@2/1 various.(2nd 11/4F beaten by a 125/1 outsider-ran a bit free and didn't fully get home.)
Dotties Dilema ran to free last time when disappointing favourite in a better class race at Newcastle, with the winner Duke of Naven finishing 4th in a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. Like today he was carrying a penalty, but today represents a drop in class and he is unbeaten in 2 runs at Hexham and appears to handle soft and heavy ground so the ground today shouldn't pose a problem.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

There is one horse of interest which is  not strong enough to be recommended as an official blog bets.- 
Hexham 3.10 Samson Collonges 1PT WIN@7/4 various.(won well last time and looked progressive, but drop back to 2 1/2 miles a slight concern) 

Third Time Lucky For An Old Selection

Two meetings today at Newcastle and Warwick and there is one selection at Newcastle.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +27.08 2012 = +5.2

Newcastle 1.45 Vosges 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 2ND (15/8)

Vosges is an old favourite of the blog having been selected twice already this season. Following his last selection I wrote” James Ewart had four runners yesterday and my selection Vosges was the only one not to win. Although beaten I am not disappointed,  as it is something you have to accept in this game and at the prices Vosges was the only horse I wanted back at. As expected there was good support for him in the market and he jumped well but was unable to peg back the front running Carrietau. So one point dropped on the day, but I would expect to get that back from Vosges later in the season”. So today is the day I expect to get the loses back on Vosges as subsequent to this run he has had two further creditable runs at Musselburgh finishing 2^nd to Maggio who had previously run behind Al Ferof at Cheltenham and 3^rd last time out behind Charminster. It is this last run which makes him a selection again today. In this race he set out to force the pace with Charminster and as a result didn’t jump as well as normal and looked to be going a stride quicker than he wanted. As they turned for home Charminister’s class showed and he pulled clear and the early efforts told on Vosges allowing Degas Art to come and grab 2^nd after the last. I was very impressed with Charminster and he went into the notebook as one to follow so assuming Vosges is ridden with more restraint I am convince he will reverse the form with Degas Art and I don’t think the Donald McCain horse Chesters Lad is in the same class as Charminster.Oops got that wrong. Correct on reversing form with Degas Art, but Chester Lad looked better than I thought he would be.

Chilly Saturday

Thursday’s selection Jennys Gold was a big drifter during the day from 9/1 to 16/1 and I didn’t hold much hope she would win before the start, but she actually race an ok race once again travelling well into contention on the 2^nd circuit before being outpaced from the home turn. I’m convinced there is a race in her off this mark and if there is a booking of a professional jockey next time I’d certainly be interested in backing her again. Still no winner in 2012 and the losing run is now up to 12, but I am convinced the winners will flow again soon. Two meetings remain today at Warwick and Kempton although Kempton faces a third inspection at 11.00 and Warwick has not warmed up a quickly as expected. If racing goes ahead there are two selections one at each meeting and both trained by Nick Williams.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +16.42 2012= -4.0

Warwick 1.25 Alfie Spinner 1PT WIN @7/2Various 2nd (10/3)

Back on the 27^th December I put up Maringo Bay a horse I rate highly in a novice chase at Chepstow as that day I thought he only had the favourite Alfie Spinner to beat and going into the race I thought he had a better chance than the favourite. As the race panned out Alfie Spinner made all and looked a sitting target all the way up the home straight for Maringo Bay to come past but having jumped upside at the last Alfie Spinner was able to pull out more and won going away in the style of a good horse. Today we will see how good the form is as Alfie Spinner runs in this competitive novice chase. With the five fences coming up quickly down the back straight I expect Alfie Spinner to use his fast accurate jumping to his advantage and put his rivals under pressure on the final circuit. Could never get to the front and was beaten by a better horse who was unproven over the trip and up to date all his best form was the opposite way around :-(. 

Kempton 2.50 Swincombe Flame 1/2PT E/W @13/2 Sporting Bet 1st (9/2F)

Swincombe Flame is a mare I have had on my radar all season and was successful in opposing her on her seasonal debut at Exeter when I selected Dream Ahead.Since then, her only defeat, she has won her next two novice hurdles comfortably and makes her handicap debut here off a very attractive mark of 123. This is an extremely competitive event but if she is going to progress onto the better class mares events later in the season then she must  go very close in this race. After 13 consecutive losers I finally manage to find a winner again with Swincombe Flame battling really well after the last to get up on the line.

When Your Luck Is Out

No luck again yesterday with Rowan Tiger making a bad mistake at the third last when in front which ultimately cost him third place on the run in. However this was an above average novice hurdle with the winner Grumeti  being talked about as a Triumph hurdle candidate, so Rowan Tiger remains one to follow particularly if dropped into a handicap off his current mark. Three meetings today at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and there is one selection at Warwick in an attempted to round off the year with a winning selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.42

Wawick  2.20 Tafika 1/2PT E/W @8/1B365 Fell (8/1)

A very competitive handicap chase but the one which caught my eye is Tafika who jumped exceptionally well on his season debut at Bangor earlier this month, before lack of peak fitness told and Denis O’Regan accepted defeat before two out allowing him to coast home in his own time. The trainer states on his website that he had a wind operation in the spring and may be a very well-handicapped horse. Given that if Bangor was a pipe opener then given the normal improvement between runs he should go very close today . As I have wrote this the 9/1 that was available has disappeared and 8/1 is now the best available price. Unbelievable Denis O'Regan fails to arrive from Newbury on time and he falls at the first. 

It Could Be A Slog

No selection yesterday but it was interesting that Bishophill Jack who was a selection a couple of weeks ago when he  jumped appallingly managed to win a very weak handicap chase at Wetherby. Two meetings today at Kelso and Warwick and the selection comes from Kelso. 

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Kelso 2.30 Ballyfitz 1PT WIN@9/2 B365 Unseated rider (10/3F)

I was at Cheltenham recently when Ballyfitz finished 2^nd to Galaxy Rock and I remember at the time thinking “where did he come from” as he was doing his best work at the finish and really staying on up the hill. Although in the twilight of his career he ran well over these marathon trips last season finishing 4^th in the Welsh National and 2^nd in both the National trial at Haydock and in the Midlands National. The ground should not be an issue today and he has had a good break since Cheltenham whereas one or two of his rival have run much more recently in testing ground over these extended trips. With the stable in goodish form this represents a drop in class for Ballyfitz and I am expecting a very bold show.

Almost Missed A Selection

Having just read an update on Paul Webbers website there is a horse running today which I almost missed as for some reason I have failed to get an e-mail from the Racing UK Nagme service

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.47

Warwick 15.00 Sole Survivor 1/2PT E/W  @10/1 Bet365 (1st 12/1)

Sole Survivor was a horse I was following last season who had three runs in bumpers. He is highly thought of by his stable and makes his debut today in a fairly competitive novice hurdle, although a couple of the shorter priced horses in the market look as though they need further than this minimum 2 mile trip. The latest stable view on the horse on their website  is “one of the best looking horses in the yard, has schooled so impressively and will hopefully make his debut over hurdles next week. We are getting excited about this horse”.  At his current price I think he is worth an investment. Looks to need further than minimum 2 mile trip but stayed on well from home turn to get there on the line for another nice priced winner.