Well Handicapped? Change of Luck Needed.

Thursday 30^th January

Wincanton 2.10 Shantou Magic 1PT WIN  9/2 Stan James 

Highly thought of by his trainer as evidenced when finishing 4^th in the Grade 1 Challow hurdle over the Christamas period, following two wins in ordinary novice hurdles. He makes his handicap debut today off an attractive mark of 138 and has been already been backed.

Guaranteed Result For Today

I can guarantee that my selection will not fall at the first as I've not got one!!!!!!!!

Deja Vu yesterday as Kent Street was nicely backed only to make a mistake and unseat Ryan Mania at the first fence to follow on from Brackloon High who did the same thing a couple of weeks ago to continue my run of bad luck. Over the last 30 years I've had runs of bad luck but this is different as it appears to have lasted for most of the year and have never had a consistent run of winners. I don't intend to change my selection criteria as I take comfort from previous years records that it will turn at some stage and the winners will flow on a regular basis again.

The meeting at Wincanton survives but there is no selection.

P&L for 2012 -11.56

A Dangerously Handicapped Horse?

No bet again yesterday after another 2^nd on Thursday. With Haydock surviving the heavy rain all three meetings have survived and the selection comes from Wincanton.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.48 2012= -2.94

Wincanton 2.45 Shuil Royale 1/2PT WIN and 1/2PT E/W @7/2Various 1st (5/2F)

Dare I say it but I think Shuil Royale is dangerously handicapped. A dual bumper and novice hurdle winner last season he started the season off a mark of 120 and last time out at Ascot was seen doing his best work at the end of the race in a class 3 hurdle behind the highly regarded Our Father and Shoreacres (was a very good 2^nd last time out). With the very useful Tom Cannon claiming 5lb Shuil Royale today runs off 110 and I would consider him “thrown in” if the David Arbuthnot stable was in winning form(not had a winner since August) but there was encouragement in the way a runner from the stable ran earlier in the week, hence the unusual 1 and 1/2 total stake today. Well backed and won comfortably like a dangerously handicapped horse, I expect him to progress on to much better things now.

Better Quality Racing Today

After a couple of quiet days with no selections due to the quality of racing on offer, there are three meetings today at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and there is just one selection in an attempt to end this losing run.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.42 2012= -2.0

Sandown 2.35 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN @7/4 Various

Prospects Wells has done well in four starts for Paul Nicholls this season; winning at Chepstow and Newbury in between good efforts in defeat at Cheltenham and Ascot. In his last run was in the The Ladbroke he was sent off the 11-4 favourite appeared outpaced at a critical stage against some better-handicapped rivals but stayed on really well toward the finish so the Sandown hill should play to his advantage here.

Back With A Selection

Festive Greetings to all my readers and I hope you all had a good one yesterday. I’m back with the blog after a short break due to time commitments and poor form and in this period I have had a further 7 bets with one winner, three seconds, two fours and one unplaced showing a net loss of -0.6PTS.(Will not be recorded on the blog). So in summary my selections are still running well, but for whatever reason not visting the winners enclosure as frequently as I’d like, so lets hope I can start putting this right from today. Eight meetings today and after my initial glance at the cards 12 horses interested me, but after further analysis I have narrowed it down to just one selections

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +25.42

Wincanton 1.40 Shoreacres 1PT WIN@3/1 Various

Shoreacres was a selection earlier in the season when a non runner at Aintree over fences and two subsequent runs over fences failed to see him sparkle, but a return to hurdles at Ascot and positive tactics last time out almost saw him spring a surprises at 33/1, just being caught after the last by the heavily backed David Pipe trained Our Father with the third Shuli Royale 14 lengths back in 3^rd. I think the form is much stronger than the favourite who was a fortunate winner at Cheltenham last time when the leader fell at the last. At the price in this small field he represents good value.

Another Winner Yesterday

Sole Survivor proved another profitable day for the blog, surprisingly drifting out to a SP of 12/1 having been advised at 10/1 and being backed during the morning to as low as 6/1. Always in the front rank he jumped ok early on, but started making mistakes from about 4 out and I must admit I thought he would drop away and finish mid field and be better for the run, but to his credit he showed great courage to battle back from the home turn and get up on the line. He is clearly a stayer and a step up in trip will suit next time out. So another 7.2PTs profit on the day.Three meetings tomorrow at Hereford, Market Rasen and Wincacton and there is one selection at Market  Rasen.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.67

Market Rasen 1.50 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @11/8 B365

This is a fairly competitive novice chase and I was immediately attracted to the booking of the champ AP McCoy for trainer John Quinn in the absence of suspended stable jockey Dougie Costello. Having gone into the form of the horse and visited the trainers website I can now understand why the jockey booking. John Quinn comments “this lad surprised me last season. I fell in love with him when I saw him at the Brightwells point-to-point to sale last year. However, I bought with a view to him being a long term project and he probably still is. Yet the speed he shows at home for a horse with his breeding is amazing. He won his novice hurdle at Wetherby from a well regarded horse in Trustan Times. We then ran him in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and it was a case of asking too much from him too soon. He has strengthened nicely through the summer months and he will now go novice chasing. Big horse, big future”.  Given the jockey booking I expect a big run today.

Thursday 13th October

Another day another winner yesterday with Persian Gates winning very easily, but having taken 7/1 the evening before I was hit with a hefty 25p deduction so only a 2.81pt profit on the day. Still better than a 1pt loss. Things are going well at the moment with the last three selections winning, but one of the reason for doing the blog is to add further discipline to my betting and to stop me looking for winners. There are two meetings today at Wincanton and Uttoxeter and today is a typical day were in the past I would go searching for winners and probably end up losing on the day because nothing stands out as a strong bet, instead of waiting until the next opportunity comes along. After all there will be plenty of selections to back or lay between tomorrow and the end of April. I'm off to Cheltenham tomorrow for the two day Open fixture so should be able to find a few selections over the coming days.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81