Quiet Boxing Day

Plenty of meetings today but with the ground riding heavy at almost all meetings and the markets looking tight for the horses I was interested in there is no selection today.

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Thursday Plot Horse?

Only Market Rasen survives today and initially when I looked there was nothing of appeal, however a more detailed second glance has found one horse of interest in the first race:-

Market Rasen  12.50 Red Jade 1PT WIN@6/5 William Hill.(3RD 5/4F very disappointing effort beaten over a mile from home)
In my initial glance I thought why has Mrs K Burke booked Nick Scholfield to ride Red Jade in this claiming race, the horse is a class above these and would win easily at his best. A more detailed analysis has revealed that the trainer is now Kieran Burke and the new owner is non other than Anthony Knott of Hunt Ball fame who is known to like a tilt at the ring especially when his horse has stones in hand. Whilst I doubt Red Jade is a Hunt Ball I would think he will have enough in hand to win this.

P&L for 2012 -6.86

One For This Evening

Two meetings today at  Perth and an evening meeting at  Market Rasen and there is one selection in the novice chase this evening

P&L for 2012 -7.42 

Market Rasen 6.40 Aneyeforaneye   1PT WIN @ 9/4 B365 (2nd 11/4)

Aneyeforaneye is a fairly useful mare in her grade and showed an improved level of form when winning on her novice chasing debut at Uttoxeter recently beating good yardstick in the 128+ rated Geneva Geyser. Having watched the race back again a couple of times she actual won by a very easy neck with the jockey only resorting to the whip once on the run in.  If she turns up in the same vain of form this evening I think she should be able to defy her 6lb penalty.
Failed by a length to peg back heavily gambled on favourite after being hampered when race turned into a sprint from 3 out.

Selection Now Non Runner

One meeting today at Market Rasen and Louis Ludwig the horse I was planning to select is now a non runner, so there is no bet.

P&L for 2012 -6.42            

Two For Today

A very quiet week on the betting front with just with just the one selection since last Saturday who was heavily backed from 11/1 into 9/2 Fav but then disappointed during the race not jumping as fluently as he had in previous races. There are two meetings today at Market Rasen and Ffos Las and there are selections at both meetings.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +22.08 2012 = +2.70

Ffos Las 2.00 Loose Chips 1PT WIN @11/4 Various Unplcd (10/3)

Loose Chip was a winning selection for the blog at Towcester about a month ago over two miles when winning at 7/1. He won very comfortably that day and  trainer Charlie Longsdon has the final of this EBF series as his long term objective. The stable also have a line to the favourite who they trained to win a NH Bumper earlier in the season, so at the price he represents good value to follow up.Poor effort weakened dramatically from home turn clearly something amiss.

Market Rasen  3.15 Maringo Bay 1/2PT E/W and 1/2PT WIN @7/2 various (2nd 5/2)

Maringo Bay was a selection last time in December when running 2^nd to Alfie Spinner at Chepstow. At the time I said it was money lent and today is the day to recoup the loses. His form in all this novice chases is solid with his third behind Invictus at Plumpton in December looking very impressive given the way Invictus won the grade 2  Reynoldstown chase yesterday at Ascot yesterday. Today he receives weight from his two market rivals and with the Charlie Mann stable in much better form than December I expect him to go very close although I have a lot of respect for favourite Mics Delight hence the strange staking recommendation. Well backed again and jumped exceptionally but just beaten by a classier horse. Has an entry in 4 mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and the 33/1 with William Hill looks tempting.

Chance To Build On Yesterday's Winner

Nice winner yesterday with Shuil Royale who had been on my radar all season and I thought he was as well handicapped as he proved in the race. I expect him to go on from this and continue to progress up the ratings. A 3.94PT profit on the day which finally gets me in profit for the year. Two meetings today at Market Rasen  and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.88 2012= +1.00

Towcester 1.40 Loose Chips 1/2PT E/W @5/1 Various 1st (7/1)

On paper this looks a fairly competitive novice hurdle race with all the major stables (Pipe, Henderson, King) represented, but the one I fancy is the Charlie Longsdon trained Loose Chips who made a very encouraging hurdles debut here on Boxing Day when making a bad mistake at the last which ultimately cost him the race. Having watched a replay of the race what I liked was despite the mistake he was closing all the way to the line and the winner Gores Island who passed him at the last has gone on to defy a penalty in a much more competitive race at Doncaster. Surprised market drift given I thought it had the best form on offer - always travelling well and beat the favourites comfortably.

Another Winner Yesterday

Sole Survivor proved another profitable day for the blog, surprisingly drifting out to a SP of 12/1 having been advised at 10/1 and being backed during the morning to as low as 6/1. Always in the front rank he jumped ok early on, but started making mistakes from about 4 out and I must admit I thought he would drop away and finish mid field and be better for the run, but to his credit he showed great courage to battle back from the home turn and get up on the line. He is clearly a stayer and a step up in trip will suit next time out. So another 7.2PTs profit on the day.Three meetings tomorrow at Hereford, Market Rasen and Wincacton and there is one selection at Market  Rasen.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.67

Market Rasen 1.50 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @11/8 B365

This is a fairly competitive novice chase and I was immediately attracted to the booking of the champ AP McCoy for trainer John Quinn in the absence of suspended stable jockey Dougie Costello. Having gone into the form of the horse and visited the trainers website I can now understand why the jockey booking. John Quinn comments “this lad surprised me last season. I fell in love with him when I saw him at the Brightwells point-to-point to sale last year. However, I bought with a view to him being a long term project and he probably still is. Yet the speed he shows at home for a horse with his breeding is amazing. He won his novice hurdle at Wetherby from a well regarded horse in Trustan Times. We then ran him in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and it was a case of asking too much from him too soon. He has strengthened nicely through the summer months and he will now go novice chasing. Big horse, big future”.  Given the jockey booking I expect a big run today.