Saturday, 8 September 2012

Third Time Lucky - Now a Non Runner

Disappointing effort from Louis Ludwig at Sedgefield on Thursday where he could only manage to finish 4th and he will find it difficult to win again when he goes up to his new handicap mark. One meeting tomorrow at Fontwell and there is one selection in the handicap hurdle.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Fontwell  4.45  Quaddick Lake 1PT WIN @ 3/1 PP (Non Runner)
Quaddick Lake is once again the selection despite being beaten the last two times he has been put up as the blog selection. There are two main reasons for this, firstly the step up to two and three quarter miles which he looks as though he needs and the fact that the form of his last two runs looks solid which Hi Note who finished 2nd at Fontwell winning two races on the Flat and Gay Sloane who finished 3rd at Newton Abbot winning the other day. Although up another 5lbs since his last run I think this is a fairly weak race and the price on offer represent fair value. 

Friday, 7 September 2012

Thursday, 6 September 2012

Nice Start To Month

Nice start to the month yesterday with Scotsbrook  Cloud winning at Hereford to make it three of winning selections in a row over the past couple of weeks and four out of the last five. With limited National Hunt racing at the moment and small fields opportunities are limited and it is a matter of finding value bets in small fields like yesterday. Moving on to today there is one meeting at Sedgefield and again one selection.

P&L for 2012 -3.44

Sedgefield  5.30  Louis Ludwig 1PT WIN @ 9/4 Betfred (4th 5/2F)
Having missed the winning gamble on Louis Ludwig last week I’m still going to put him up here to follow up as he won last week at Stratford in a canter. I had noticed he appeared to be returning to form in his previous race and the booking of Richard Johnson (only ride at the meeting) replacing an amateur jockey looks significant and that connections are expecting the horse to follow up under a penalty.Weak in the market throughout the day. Held up and never really looked threatening.

Wednesday, 5 September 2012

One For Today

One meeting today at Hereford and we have the first selection of the new month.

P&L for 2012 -5.07

Hereford 4.10 Scotsbrook Cloud  1PT WIN @ 13/8 PP(1ST EvsF)
Only 5 go to post for this novice chase and Scotsbrook Cloud looks the value in receipt of the 12lb from his two market rivals. The winner of five hurdle races he hasn’t looked a natural so far over fences, but comes here on the back of a very good run over hurdles in a valuable handicap at Newton Abbot and on his last run over fences he was sent off joint favourite for the Summer National at Uttoxeter where he was pulled up. This is a big drop in class and if he can get his jumping together he should win in receipt of the weight. Heavily backed.Jumped better but doesn't appear a natural.Won cheekily on the line after showing a good turn of foot from the last.

Sunday, 2 September 2012

Quiet Sunday

A quiet start to the month with no selections today at Newton Abbot as the course has been waterlogged for the past few days and although the ground is soft/heavy in places it is unclear how it will ride. Recent selection Quaddick Lake runs again today but with stable having two runners and Nick Schofield choosing to partner hat trick seeking favourite On The Bridge I cannot put him up as a selection.

Yesterday I was planning to put up Quinder Spring as a selection at Market Rasen as I thought he had won very comfortably at Cartmel but when I saw the handicapper had hiked him up 12lbs I thought it was too much and decided against the bet. I was proved correct and despite him being backed in from 3/1 to 5/4F he was unable to defy the increase in weight and was beaten into 2nd.

Despite hitting the frame with all selections last month, which shows my form is good, I only showed just a small profit and I am still showing a year to date loss,(Results page has been updated) but feel confident I will turn it round in the next 4 months particularly when the National Hunt season gets in full swing.