Nothing Today

Another day of competitive racing with three meetings at Doncaster, Musselburgh and Newbury and there is no selection. November has shown a small profit and I will update the pages later.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Back With An Old Favourite.

After an enforced break due to the weather the blog is back with one selection tomorrow at the only National Hunt meeting to survive at Musselburgh.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

Musselburgh  2.35 Ostland 1/2PT E/W @9/1 Various Unplcd (9/1)

Ostland was a winning selection over fences for the blog back in October and returns after a break to carry top weight in this competitive handicap hurdle and is the selection for a number of factors. He is 8lb better off than his chase rating, it is his first hurdle attempt over 3 miles although he has won over the distance when chasing, he has a preference for going right handed, jockey Kielan Woods is well worth his 5lb claim and the stable remain in good form with a winner at Kempton today. In his last run over hurdles last April at Cheltenham over two and half miles he took up the running on the home turn but was outpaced going to the last and stayed on at one pace up the hill. As all his subsequent runs in chases have been over further the trip should be no problem and his trainer comment on his website that  I did not think he would be ready to run so quickly, however after a sparkling bit of work on Wednesday in Lambourn, we have decided to take a chance.  Taking the factors above into consideration and the price available I think it is worth backing him. Ran too free throughout race went on home turn and actually traded at 1.37 in running before weakening.

Discipline and Patience

Two cards today at Hereford and Musselburgh and once again after reviewing the cards there are no selections. As I have mentioned previously the main reason for doing the blog is to add discipline to my betting and stop me betting for the sake of it, so after a good weekend I am happy to be disciplined and wait patiently for the betting next opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +27.08 2012 = +5.2 

Happy New Year To All Readers

Welcome to 2012 hopefully on a gambling front it will start in much better fashion than 2011 ended, as yesterday’s selection Tafika sum up what a disastrous month December was when falling at the first fence. The only comfort I take from my last two selections has been that they were also selected by fellow bloggers, Rowan Tiger by Patient Speculation and Tafika by Longshot, whose knowledge and reasoning I greatly respect.

On to today with five National Hunt meetings at Catterick, Cheltenham, Exeter, Fakenham and, Musselburgh. My initial selection for the day was Hawk Mountain who looked on a very good mark for his handicap debut at Fakenham and I thought the 9/4 on offer last night was massive. Sadly the ground must now be too soft and he is now a non runner, which leaves me with one other selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.42

Cheltenham 1.05 Sonovic 1PT WIN @5/4 Various Unplcd (6/5F)

I very rarely recommend backing this short but Sonovic put a highly impressive case debut at Newbury chasing home Grand Crus and given the way he won the Feltham last week I expect him to take this in receipt of weight  from Invictus and Solix on his way to better things. Paul Nichols comments on his Betfair blog stengthen my support for this selection as he comment that Sonovic delighted me when winning his novice hurdles last season, as this point winner has always been a chaser in the making. And he showed just that when running Grands Crus to two lengths at Newbury, albeit getting 7lb. The winner obviously advertised the merit of that form when winning the Feltham so impressively, meaning we clearly have a Sun Alliance horse on our hands. That said, he is not short of speed so I don't think the step back in trip will be that much of a problem.

Two Selections Today

Ballyfitz was well backed yesterday and was travelling well when making two horrendous mistakes down the back straight the 2^nd of which resulted in a unseated rider. Whether he would have been in contention at the end of the race if he hadn’t made those mistakes is difficult to say. That’s now five successive loser over the past two weeks but I’m not going to panic and will be using the same approach to my selections and continue to looking for value. There are two meetings today at Musselburgh and Plumpton and for a Monday the cards are very good and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +27.42

Plumpton 1.10 Invictus 1PT WIN@2/1 B365 1st (7/4)

I am prepared to take on the Irish raider and favourite Gift Of Dgab in this five runner novice chase with Invictus for two reason. Firstly I was very impressed with his fencing debut at Hereford a couple of weeks ago where he got into a nice rhythm and fenced quick and accurately and could be called the winner along way from home and secondly the form of the Alan King stable (8 winners in the past fortnight) compared with the Tony Martin stable who have only managed one winner in the same period. Travelled and jumped well Choc went for a gap on brave gap on inside going into home turn which proved a winning move.

Musselburgh 1.20 Anna’s Arch 1PT WIN@9/4 Boylesports 4th (10/3)

Anna’s Arch was a blog selection back in August when very easily defying a penalty in a bumper at Bangor after being heavily backed. Two subsequent runs in bumpers failed to deliver a 3^rd win( which is very difficult to achieve) and today he makes his novice hurdle debut in a very winnable race and from the market he has the ex winning flat racer Dimension to beat but I am always wary of flat horses starting their jumping careers at the age of 7. Weak in market and never travelling

One For Today

Three meetings today at Doncaster, Newbury and Musselburgh and it’s off to Scotland we go for the selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42

Musselburgh 2.25 Vosges  1PT WIN @7/2 Various 2nd (9/4)

Vosges was a selection earlier in the season when running disappointingly at Kelso in a two mile six furlong novice handicap chase in which the 1^st and 4^th have both won since.  Given the reports that had been coming out from the yard much more was expected and immediate reaction from the trainer was that the horse didn’t stay and a drop back in trip would suit. Today he runs at the minimum trip, on a course he won twice at last season. With race conditions allowing him to get 4 year olds a weight allowance and with the trainer hitting form I think the current price on offer represents excellent value. Jumped ok was always in 2nd place unable to catch all the way winner who got an easy lead.

There are two meetings tomorrow at Musselburgh and Towcester. Not the highest quality cards but there is one horse which stood out when I had a quick glance at the cards earlier this evening and I notice it has been backed with a number of firms.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.97

Musselburgh  1.00 1/2PT E/W Alfie Flits @7/1 Boylesports Unplcd (9/1)

When I had a quick glance at this race I thought Alfie Flits at somewhere near his best would be a class above these and my initial thoughts seem to be vindicated as he has already been backed with one or two firms already. A formally useful novice hurdler he spent last season novice chasing and never really looked a natural, but if we go back to his hurdle form of two seasons ago he was competitive in class 2 hurdles off a stone more than his rating tomorrow. The Alan Swinbank stable are in reasonable form and at the price available I am prepared to support my initial thoughts. (Alarming drift from 5/1 to 9/1 and then Racing UK confirmed the horse looked in need of the run and ran accordingly)