Early One At Towcester

Towcester 1.10 Milord 1PT WIN  5/6 Stan James

Milord finds himself on a confidence boosting mission today after two falls in four runs this season, but his form when fourth in the Fred Winter at the festival is head and shoulders above his opponents here. I assume a clear round will be his priority, but with the booking of Jason Maguire he should have enough class to win this at I expect him to start shorter than his current price(Two lengths clear at the last and in command when coming down - Luck is really out at the moment) 

YTD Running Total -5.10PTS 

Quiet Boxing Day

Plenty of meetings today but with the ground riding heavy at almost all meetings and the markets looking tight for the horses I was interested in there is no selection today.

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Double Recovery Mission

Double recovery mission today in attempting to recover from a poor start to the month on Saturday and recover money lost on a previous selection who ran badly in November. Today there are two meetings at Folkestone and Towcester and there is one selection at Towcester. 

Towcester 1.50 Up To Something 1PT WIN@11/4 various(2nd 9/4 as expected got the odds on Fav beaten only to be done by 18/1 outsider)

Up To Something was a short price selection for the blog at the beginning of November when running terrible at Uttoxeter and being pulled up. It transpires he was a sick horse that day and the form of that race has probably some of the best novice hurdle form on offer so far this season with winner Coneygree subsequently winning impressively at Cheltenham and runner up Corrin Wood losing out by a neck to highly regarded Gevrey Chambertin at Haydock last Friday and the third also winning. For Up To Something to be sent of at such a short price in a race of that quality shows the ability he obviously has and the current price of 11/4 look fair value against the odds on fav, to discover if his poor effort last time was a one off.

P&L for 2012 -9.56

Three For Today

Small winning month in November but again a month plagued by bad luck. There are 26 more day of racing planned for December and my target remains to achieve break-even in what is looking to be my worst ever year for gambling on the horses. It looks like the three meeting at Newbury, Newcastle and Towcester have survived and there are three selections.
A poor day. Managed to beat the SP in all races but that no good if the selections don't win.

Newbury 1.25 Global Power 1/2PT E/W@10/1various (Unplaced 8/1 look to be travelling well till 6 out but seemed one paced after that)
The Oliver Sherwood stable are in tremendous form at the moment and Global Power runs in this competitive novices handicap chase off an attractive mark having according to the trainer been wrong all last season. The trainer comments on his blog today "Global Power is in great form at home and will put up a bold show at a track that should suit. His jumping was good at Fontwell and that race has brought him on a lot physically and mentally. This looks a competitive race but he has a great ew chance".

Towcester 2.10 Thomas Crapper 1PT WIN@3/1 Betfred (4th 15/8F never really got competitive very disappointing effort)
Drop in class from his run behind The New One at Cheltenham last time, where he ran very much like a stayer, so this stiff track should suit. He sets the standard here having been fifth in the EBF final on his final run last season behind the highly regarded Ambion Wood.

Newcastle 2.20 Cinders and Ashes 1PT WIN Evs@William Hill ( 2nd 10/11F never looked happy at any stage)
Winner of last seasons Supreme Novices hurdle at Cheltenham who acts well on heavy ground. This looks an ideal starting point for the season in a race the stable have won for the last couple of seasons with Peddlers Cross and Overturn.

Chance To Build On Yesterday's Winner

Nice winner yesterday with Shuil Royale who had been on my radar all season and I thought he was as well handicapped as he proved in the race. I expect him to go on from this and continue to progress up the ratings. A 3.94PT profit on the day which finally gets me in profit for the year. Two meetings today at Market Rasen  and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.88 2012= +1.00

Towcester 1.40 Loose Chips 1/2PT E/W @5/1 Various 1st (7/1)

On paper this looks a fairly competitive novice hurdle race with all the major stables (Pipe, Henderson, King) represented, but the one I fancy is the Charlie Longsdon trained Loose Chips who made a very encouraging hurdles debut here on Boxing Day when making a bad mistake at the last which ultimately cost him the race. Having watched a replay of the race what I liked was despite the mistake he was closing all the way to the line and the winner Gores Island who passed him at the last has gone on to defy a penalty in a much more competitive race at Doncaster. Surprised market drift given I thought it had the best form on offer - always travelling well and beat the favourites comfortably.

Typical

James Ewart had four runners yesterday and my selection Vosges was the only one not to win. Although beaten I am not too disappointed, as it is something you have to accept in this game and at the prices Vosges was the only horse I wanted back at. As expected there was good support for him in the market and he jumped well but was unable to peg back the front running Carrietau who was given a fantastic ride by Henry Brooke a conditional I have a lot of time for. So one point dropped on the day, but I would expect to get that back from Vosges later in the season. A fantastic days racing again today with previous winning blog selections (Great Endeavour, Dream Function) running at Newbury, but at the prices available they are a bit too short to be considered in these competitive events. In additions there are good meetings at Newcastle, Bangor-on-Dee and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Towcester 2.45 Saint Denis 1/2PT E/W 14/1 various

Like last Saturday this is a speculative selection (I hope it runs better than last weeks)but at the price on offer I think it is worth a bet. Saint Denis caught my eye last season running well in a number of novice hurdles without getting competitive and makes his handicap debut here off a rating of just 97. Although the stable are not in great form the booking of Paddy Brennan looks significant together with the step up to 3 miles for the first time and with the exception of the warm favourite Valid Point the other runners look fully exposed.