Belated Happy 2013 - One To Watch

Decided to give racing a miss yesterday and go to watch my local team Wigan play Manchester Utd. To say play would be an understatement as they were totally outclassed and being a neutral I could really appreciate the skill and class that some of the Utd players possess and why in the case of Robin van Persie £24m looks money well spent. 
Yesterday on the racing front there was nothing strong enough for a bet. Today there is one meeting at Ayr and one horse of of interest but not an official bet as I believe the favourite will be difficult to beat.

Ayr 12.50 Our Joey (Backed in from 5/1 early in the morning to 6/4F and ran out at 2nd last when probably beat. One to keep on the side of when stepped up in trip)

Dual bumper winner who should have won on his novice hurdle debut when falling at second last. Outclassed at Cheltenham last time but didn't run as bad as finishing position would suggest. Trip may be a bit short today but can put jumping experience to good use, although I believe the favourite Halo Moon will be difficult to beat after turning over a well regarded sort from the Pipe stable on his debut. 

A Significant Jockey Booking

My last selection on the blog was Synchronised in the Grand National who ended up tragically being killed along with According To Pete.  As an avid  follower of National Hunt racing for over 25 years death and serious injury is the sad aspect of the sport that I have had to accept ever since witnessing my favourite horse at the time Sherwood Gunner trained by Owen Brennan breaking his neck at Uttoxeter many moon ago.  For me it is not about the money lost on the bet it is more about the horse being denied the opportunity to fulfil its potential, none more so than earlier this year when Hidden Keel lost his life a Cheltenham, as the trainer had the same views as me that this horse was destined for much greater things. 

Three meetings tomorrow at Ayr, Fontwell and the first of many evening meetings at Southwell with one selection which is I think is a stand out bet based on form and jockey booking.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.92 2012 = -3.46

Ayr 3.25 Vintage Star 1PT WIN @ 7/2 Various Pulled Up (9/4F)

When looking through the card the booking of Barry Geraghty replacing a 7lb claimer for this improving hurdler of Sue’s Smith’s looking very interesting as Geraghty has only ridden once for her in the past 5 years. On the basis of his last three runs Vintage Star is an improving horse and the step back up to 3 miles should be to his advantage, as he was staying on really well at Haydock last time over and inadequate 2  1/2 miles trip in what seemed a much more competitive race than this and the handicapper has been very lenient only raising him an 1lb. Currently available at 7/2 he looks extremely good value. Backed as expected, but didn't jump well and was soon beaten once the tempo increased. Still believe he will make a nice staying novice chaser next season.

Value In An Odds On Bet?

A week on from a successful winning bet with Sammy Spiderman at Ayr we return to the track again for another bet this time in the three runner novice chase.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +5.70 

Ayr 2.35 Lie Forrit 1PT WIN @5/6 Various 2nd(EvsF)

Only three runners go to post for this novice chase and whilst I do not like betting odds-on in novice chases at the prices Lie Forrit appears to be a value bet.  Easily the best of these over hurdles he made a very pleasing novice chase debut at Kelso in November after being off 20 months with injury. What impressed me about his debut run was his quick accurate jumping and given quite a bit to do from 3 out showed great battling qualities to run down Blenheim Brook on the run in. Whether it was the bounce factor or the effects of a hard race Lie Forrit returned to Kelso 25 days later and didn’t jump as well and was unable to peg back Blenheim Brook’s stable mate Bold Sir Brian on the run in. Today the step up in trip is a big plus for Lie Forrit who at his best over hurdles is 18lbs better than Blenheim Brook so at the current price is in my opinion a value bet. Outpaced at critical stage in a very tactical race and stayed on really well after the last.

Conditions Spot On For Sammy?

No bet yesterday. Two meetings today at Ayr and Plumpton and there is one selection at Ayr after it survives a morning inspection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +3.2

Ayr  2.55 Sammy Spiderman 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 1ST (5/2F)

Sammy Spiderman was a selection two weeks ago when finishing second at this course after which I wrote “Sammy Spiderman finished 2nd yesterday and was beaten by a well handicapped horse in Allanard, although looking back greed got the better of me in having the bet as I did put in the write up that I was worried that the ground may not be soft enough for my selection, which was reflected with the market drift. From the way he jumped and ran I think Sammy Spiderman is at peak fitness and if he turns up again at Ayr in two weeks time and the ground has gone heavy then he would be worth another consideration”. Since then Allanard has run again in a much better race at Newcastle and looked the winner until falling two out. Sammy Spiderman drops back to two miles and five furlongs today which is a slight concern but given he has his favoured heavy ground and that fact he is in receipt of weight from all his rivals I expect him to record win number five at the course. Its great when a plan comes to fruition but watching I was never comfortable he would catch all the way leader Something Silver until halfway up the run in when Sammy Spiderman's stamina came into play.

Ayr Selection

No bet yesterday but once selection today at Ayr to hopefully build on the victory of Swincombe Flame on Saturday.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94

Ayr 2.10 Sammy Spiderman 1PT WIN @11/4Various 2nd(7/2)

I wouldn’t usually have a selection in a race like this and not an 9 year old exposed handicapper but he appears to be running into form, is on a winnable handicap mark, all four of his wins have come at Ayr and there are doubts about his three main market rivals. He caught my eye last time staying on all the way up the straight at Newcastle to finish 2^nd to a gambled on winner Playing The Field and that is some of  the best recent form on offer. Of this market rivals there appears to be little confidence from the stable for Quinder Spring as Lucinda Russell quotes on her website “Quinder Spring has struggled to hit form and we are trying a visor on him to help him concentrate. He is slipping in the handicap ratings and should appreciate the track”. Ballycarron Lad has the most potential in the race but the regular jockey who has ridden him on the past two occasions is replaced by a 7lb amateur, even though he has other rides at the course which I see as a negative and Allanard although running well appears to be in the grip of the handicapper and he is also visored for the first time in an attempt to eke out some improvement. My only nagging doubt about Sammy Spiderman is if the ground will be soft enough but at the current price it is worth taking this risk. Beaten by a better handicapped horse although ground may not have been soft enough

Poor Run Continues

Sonovic was very disappointing selection yesterday never travelling or jumping with any fluency before a bad mistake after jumping 4 out put paid to any chance he may have had. A poor start to the year and with three meetings today at Ayr, Folkestone and Plumpton, there is one selection in an attempt to break the losing streak.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8/11 +19.42       2012= -1.0

Ayr 1.55 Prospeco 1PT WIN @7/2 William Hill Various

Prospeco was a selection earlier in the season when heavily backed at Wetherby over two miles when only managing to finish fifth. On that run I thought a step up to 2 ½ miles and softer ground would suit and he tried this a Newcastle when once again well backed and finished 2^nd to the very well handicapped and gambled on Papa Caruso. Today he returns to his favourite track Ayr (3 wins and a second from 4 runs) on soft ground and should be spot on for a big run. Available at 4/1 last night he has already been clipped into 7/2