Saturday, 21 January 2012

A Dangerously Handicapped Horse?

No bet again yesterday after another 2nd on Thursday. With Haydock surviving the heavy rain all three meetings have survived and the selection comes from Wincanton.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.48 2012= -2.94

Wincanton 2.45 Shuil Royale 1/2PT WIN and 1/2PT E/W @7/2Various 1st (5/2F)
Dare I say it but I think Shuil Royale is dangerously handicapped. A dual bumper and novice hurdle winner last season he started the season off a mark of 120 and last time out at Ascot was seen doing his best work at the end of the race in a class 3 hurdle behind the highly regarded Our Father and Shoreacres (was a very good 2nd last time out). With the very useful Tom Cannon claiming 5lb Shuil Royale today runs off 110 and I would consider him “thrown in” if the David Arbuthnot stable was in winning form(not had a winner since August) but there was encouragement in the way a runner from the stable ran earlier in the week, hence the unusual 1 and 1/2 total stake today. Well backed and won comfortably like a dangerously handicapped horse, I expect him to progress on to much better things now.

Thursday, 19 January 2012

One For Today

No bet yesterday but with three meetings today at Lingfield, Ludlow and an excellent competitive card at Taunton I have one bet.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +19.48 2012= -1.94

Lingfield 2.00 The Tracey Shuffle 1PT WIN @9/4B365 2ND(4/6F)
A dual bumper winner of soft ground last season before running a decent race in the Cheltenham bumper where he finished 10th this novice hurdle looks an ideal starting point for a horse I expect to go onto much better things. A brother to the ill fated Mr Thriller and a half brother to Gaspara he has proven class in his pedigree and the trainer comments in his stable tour “He’ll be a lovely staying novice hurdler on easy going”. The main danger comes in the form of Ile De Re won the Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap at Ascot and though he's shown promise in two starts over hurdles I believe he will need an even more strenuous test of stamina to exploit his full potential. With main market rival being a non runner this looked a simple task for The Tracey Shuffle, but after a prolonged battle with Becausewecan until approaching the 2nd last he was outstayed by a 40/1 shot to leave me pulling out what hair I have left :-(.

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Another Second and Link to an Excellent New Website

Sammy Spiderman finished 2nd yesterday and was beaten by a well handicapped horse in Allanard, although looking back greed got the better of me in having the bet as I did put in the write up that I was worried that the ground may not be soft enough for my selection, which was reflected with the market drift. From the way he jumped and ran I think Sammy Spiderman is at peak fitness and if he turns up again at Ayr in two weeks time and the ground has gone heavy then he would be worth another consideration. Two meetings today at Newbury and Southwell but I cannot find a selection. One of the most interesting races today is the hunter chase at Newbury and although I don't bet in these type of races I was very impressed when I saw My Flora win at Stratford last May and I have just come across the following site which gives a comprehensive analysis of today's race

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +19.48 2012= -1.94 

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Ayr Selection

No bet yesterday but once selection today at Ayr to hopefully build on the victory of Swincombe Flame on Saturday.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94

Ayr 2.10 Sammy Spiderman 1PT WIN @11/4Various 2nd(7/2)
I wouldn’t usually have a selection in a race like this and not an 9 year old exposed handicapper but he appears to be running into form, is on a winnable handicap mark, all four of his wins have come at Ayr and there are doubts about his three main market rivals. He caught my eye last time staying on all the way up the straight at Newcastle to finish 2nd to a gambled on winner Playing The Field and that is some of  the best recent form on offer. Of this market rivals there appears to be little confidence from the stable for Quinder Spring as Lucinda Russell quotes on her website “Quinder Spring has struggled to hit form and we are trying a visor on him to help him concentrate. He is slipping in the handicap ratings and should appreciate the track”. Ballycarron Lad has the most potential in the race but the regular jockey who has ridden him on the past two occasions is replaced by a 7lb amateur, even though he has other rides at the course which I see as a negative and Allanard although running well appears to be in the grip of the handicapper and he is also visored for the first time in an attempt to eke out some improvement. My only nagging doubt about Sammy Spiderman is if the ground will be soft enough but at the current price it is worth taking this risk. Beaten by a better handicapped horse although ground may not have been soft enough

Monday, 16 January 2012

No Selection Today

One average looking meeting a Plumpton today and there is no selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94 

Sunday, 15 January 2012

Winner Eventually and Time To Reflect

Swincombe Flame finally managed to end the dreadful losing run of 13 bets yesterday, when getting up on the line to win by a nose at 9/2 having been advised at 13/2. These types of  losing runs which will always occur at the price range in which I operate but this one has contained an enormous amount of bad luck (beaten by a nose, short head and a solid jumper falling at the first) so it was nice to see the luck change yesterday and the nose verdict to go my way. For those who have been following the blog regularly I hope we can kick on from here and look to build up to a profit of around 50PTS which is what I have achieved over the past 5 years. Thanks for those readers particularly Mark from Patient Speculation who have commented throughout the bad run, although I always tried to remain positive there were times when I was pulling my hair out as results failed to go my way. A classic example yesterday being Alfie Spinner who ran a perfectly solid race, but came up against a much better horse in Frascati Park, who I had dismissed on the basis of two factors 1. He had never been over the trip and 2. All his best form was going the other way round. Neither proved to be a hindrance and he went out and made all with Alfie Spinner chasing him the whole way. This is what I love about gambling on  horse racing you think you have every angle covered but until the race has been run there could be other variables that you didn't consider or weren't aware of.

As Kelso has been abandoned today there are no selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94