Saturday, 22 October 2011

Exciting days racing today with three excellent meetings at Aintree Chepstow and Stratford to whet the appetite for future Saturday’s over the coming weeks. There will be plenty of pointers from the meetings today for future races and there are many horses that are of interest for backing later in the season.  Having had a shortlist of eight I have narrowed it down to what I consider the strongest two selections.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +11.81

Aintree 5.15 1PT WIN Shoreacres @5/1Bet365 - Non Runner
The overall profile of Shoreacres is disappointing and he has obviously had his problems over the past couple of seasons having only run three times in the past 18 months, but when Shoreacres is right he can be very good and his handicap mark of 133 here appears reasonable. He has won first time out in three of the past five seasons and the booking of AP McCoy looks fairly significant(who on him first time out last season), whilst the Brendan Powell yard remain in good form.

Stratford 3.50 1PT WIN Magnifique Etoile @5/6 William Hill - Winner (4/9F)
Magnifique Etoile put up a very impressive seasonal debut at Market Rasen four weeks ago in a bumper. Travelling easily throughout the race he quickened exceptionally easily and pulled 22l clear of modest opposition, but the manner of his victory left the impression he could be a useful recruit to hurdling. He makes his hurdles debut today and on his website Charlie Longsdon seems fairly confident stating “he has schooled well and now it is up to him to do it on the course”.  The opposition is not that strong and this looks an easily winnable opportunity. A class above opposition as reflected by the betting but his jumping was very hit and miss.

Friday, 21 October 2011

Friday 21st October

Aikman was heavily backed yesterday into 5/4F was only able to finish 3rd. Clearly the trip was too short for him against the class of opposition and both the main dangers I advised Frascati Park and Bold Sir Brian finished in front of him.One meetings today at Fakenham and having gone through the card there is no selection
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +11.81
Three cards tomorrow so there should be at least one selection.

Thursday, 20 October 2011

Thursday 20th October

A disappointing run from Illysantachristina yesterday. She was only able to finish 4th.  There was no pace in the race and it turned into a bit of a sprint from the home turn and she was unable to quick and hung very badly after the last, so maybe she needs a break. Two meetings today at Carlisle and Ludlow and Carlisle is an excellent card with many Southern trainers making the long journey north in search of the better ground and I have one selection.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +12.81

Carlisle 5.00 1PT WIN Aikman@15/8 with Bet365 - Lost 3rd (5/4F)
Aikman was a winning selection of an intermediate hurdle for the blog a couple of weeks ago and today makes his eagerly awaited chasing debut. From what I have read the stable seem fairly confident that the drop back in distance to two miles on this stiff track will not be an issue and it is expected that his fitness will have improved from his last run where he was only 80% fit. The main dangers are Frascati Park and Bold Sir Brian, but horses from both stables are appearing to need their first runs of the season.

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Wednesday 19th October

Two meetings tomorrow over jumps at Fontwell and Worcester. There is one selection at Worcester.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +13.81

Worcester 4.20 1PT WIN Illysantachristina  @10/3 with Boylesports -Lost 4th (10/3F)
Illysantachristina caught my eye in her most recent run at Ffos Las when she travelled and jumped fluently and having gone into the led three out was caught approaching the last by a well back favourite. That was a fairly competitive handicap hurdle and tomorrow she appears in a much weaker mares only handicap hurdle off the same rating. She is the progressive horse in the race having won three of her last six races and her train Bernard Llewellyn  is in fair form having had 2 winners and 4 seconds in the past 14 days whilst jockey Aodhagan Conlon rode a winner for the stable last week and has won on her previously. Given all the factors above 10/3 appears a fair price for her to add another victory to her progressive profile.

Monday, 17 October 2011

Tuesday 18th October

Another winner today with Runshan being backed throught the day and starting 5/4F. 3PT profit on the day for the blog if you were able to get the early price yesterday evening like myself.  Having a bet for me is all about getting the “value” and at the price of 3/1 or 5/2 Runshan was very good “value”, but I don’t think I’d have been selecting him if he had been a 5/4 shot last night. If you weren’t able to get the 3/1 or 5/2 I have added a new selection to the right hand side of the blog with links to a number of bookmaker sites offering promotions when you join. Just click the links and they will take you to the sites and you will be able to open your new accounts.

The race went exactly as expected with Runshan jumping out and making all and his rivals dropping away one by one for a very comfortable victory. One meeting at Exeter tomorrow which is a very poor card and there is no selection.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +13.81

Sunday, 16 October 2011

Monday 17th October

Spot on with the Lay on Nearby today it is a horse definitely on the downward grade and was no match for the progressive Pepe Simo who would have been a backed selection if the Paul Nichols stable had been in better form. There is one very poor meeting at Plumpton tomorrow and I wouldn’t usually be getting involved in this type of card, but after a quick glance through the runners there is one horse that caught my eye and at the current price available is worth a bet.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +10.76

Plumpton 3.50 1PT WIN Runshan @3/1 with Paddy Power - Winner (5/4F)
This is a race where the new whip rules may play to our advantage as Runshan is very one paced plodder who likes to lead and if he is allowed to dominate he may be able to get his other three rivals off the bridle with a circuit to go and with only three cracks allowed before the final fence they may struggle to peg him back. Runshan caught my eye on his seasonal debut two weeks ago at Uttoxeter, making most and jumping well for Tom Scudamore over an inadequate trip before failing to give 23lbs to an inform rival.The trip up from 21 to 26 furlongs today is a big advantage and the David Bridgewater stable is in excellent form at the moment with two winners and a second from four runners in the past 14 day and Tom Scuadmore has a record off one win and two seconds on this horse in the past 12 months. Taking all these factors into consideration I think this is an excellent bet at 3/1.

Sunday 16th October

Yesterday was disappointing as we only broke even, despite the two selections being heavily backed. Firstly Vosges was well backed into 4/1 but was never travelling as well as expected and was beaten with a circuit to go. James Ewart tweeted last night that they will reconsider the trip for future runs. The second selection Secret Tune continued to be backed all day before going off 9/2F. He moved into contention 1/2mile out but was very one paced and stayed on to take 3rd. The main points to take away from my two days at Cheltenham are the Paul Nichols horses look and are running like they need their first runs of the season and the Phillip Hobbs runners despite a winner yesterday seem to be running flat (only 2 winners in past 14 days). One meeting today at Kempton and given the above comments a very tricky selection.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81

Kempton 4.25 1PT LAY Nearby@2.8(Winning Lay 0.95PT Profit)
I thought Nearby would make a decent chaser but appears not to be in love with the game and has shown no sparkle over fences running well below his official rating. He reverts back to hurdles here and according to the handicapper appears 11lb well in at the weights. However looking back at his form he has not won for 8 races and his performances over fences would suggest he is no longer as good as his rating and looks as though he is on a downward curve.