Saturday, 12 November 2011

Great To Be Back To Winning Ways

Nice to bounce back after Friday’s disappointment with an excellent result in the Paddy Power with Great Endeavour delivering a highly impressive performance to win at an SP of 8/1. I hope most of you who have backed him managed to get the 12/1 which was available when I posted the blog for a 7.5pt profit on the day. If you didn’t get the 12/1 consider opening accounts with all major bookmakers (links available on the right hand side of the blog). There are two meetings tomorrow at Cheltenham and Fonwell and the selection comes at Fontwell.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.47

Fontwell 12.55 It’s A Classic 1PT WIN  @6/1 Bet365 2nd (8/1)
I don’t usually back horses with letters in their form but this is such a bad race that I really fancy It’s A Classic on the price on offer even though in his last three runs he has been brought down, pulled up and refused. This hurdle race over 3 miles and 3 furlongs on soft ground is going to be a real stamina test and even though It’s A Classic refused last time out at Carlisle he caught my eye as he jumped and travelled well and was still in contention at the 2nd last in a competitive 3 mile handicap chase. Renard a winner for the blog earlier this week also refused in this race. Tomorrow he reverts to hurdles for the first time in 5 years off a mark 9lb lower than what he ran off at Carlisle last time. Although he is 10 he has only had 26 starts and his form is far better than anything else in the race with 4 wins 4 seconds and 4 thirds, something I doubt any of his rivals will ever achieve. The stable is in reasonable form particularly on the flat and as this is such a bad race at 6/1 he is worth taking a chance with.

Hoping For A Better Day

A very poor day yesterday with all four selections failing to deliver. Firstly I found out after posting the Blog that the priority for Zaru yesterday was to get him round after his fall last time and the market drift reflected this. He ran ok to finish 5th and is now qualified for handicap hurdles so remains of interest. Time For Spring looked very one paced when the race quickened from the top of the hill and finished very tired in 5th.  Prospect Wells looked like a welcome winner as he past me half way up the Cheltenham run in, being ¾ of a length clear but his stride was shortening and Steps To Freedom was coming with a fair rattle and nabbed him on the line by a neck. Finally the way Grand Crus was travelling I doubt Cue Card would have beaten him even if he had stood up. So 4pts dropped on a very disappointing day.
Three meetings today at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. Having analysed the cards there is one selection in the big race at Cheltenham.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +14.97

Cheltenham 2.35 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W @12/1 Various 1st 8/1
Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival. That day the he had jumped well but looked as though he probably didn’t stay the 3 miles, so the drop back in trip should suit and with the current form of the David Pipe yard(3 winners yesterday) the 12/1 available looks  good each way value.

Friday, 11 November 2011

Cheltenham For The Next Three Days

Off to Cheltenham today for the three day Paddy Power meeting so having analysed the Cheltenham and Newcastle cards in some detail I have come up with no less than four selections.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.97

Newcastle 12.30 Zaru 1/2PT E/W@6/1 B365 5th(9/1)
Overall  Zaru has a disappointing profile having failed to win a race so far, but I am the price I am prepared to give him one last chance. A hard puller that has been difficult to settle in previous races he showed similar traits at Kelso first time out this season, but was still in with a chance at the 2nd last when he fell. The winner of that race Simply Ned defied a penalty in very easy fashion at Kelso earlier this week.  This is no better than the race at Kelso so assuming Brian Hughes can get him to settle then there is a good chance he will be able to fulfil the promise he showed in bumpers last season.

Cheltenham 1.10 Time For Spring 1/2PT E/W@6/1 Various 5th(10/3F)
A winner of his only novice chase Time For Spring looks well handicapped off a mark of 125 and the jockey booking of Sam Waley-Cohen looks significant. Although I initially was not overly impressed with his win at Carlisle the form of the races has worked out well with the 2nd and 3rd winning next time out and his trainer commented after the race that he will improve again when he steps up to 3 miles which he does for the first time tomorrow.

Cheltenham 2.55 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN@7/2 Boylesports 2nd (9/2)
I was very impressed with the debut of Prospect Wells at Chepstow just over two weeks ago in particular the ease with which he scythed through the field from the 3rd last. He was a decent stayer on the flat  and the extra test of Cheltenham will play to his strengths together with the weight he receives from the favourite Steps To Freedom.

Cheltenham 4.05 Cue Card 1PT WIN @13/8 William Hill UR (7/4)
This race is worth the admission fee alone as Cue Card takes on Grand Crus in best novice chase of the season so far. Cue Card really impressed me at this meeting last season and was very impressed with his seasonal debut at Chepstow  with the second and third winning since. I expect Grand Crus to develop into one of the top staying novices this season, but over this trip, with a fitness advantage and his stable bang in form it has to be Cue Card for me.

Thursday, 10 November 2011

The Good Run Continues

The good run continues with another winning selection yesterday with Dream Function winning the last at Exeter in very impressive fashion having been backed in from 4/1 to a starting price of 2/1 and in the process  overturing the highly regarded Swincombe Flame. Two meetings today at Ludlow and Taunton and having looked at the cards there is no bet.  I’m off the Cheltenham for the three day Paddy Power meeting tomorrow so I’ll be getting stuck into tomorrow’s card once the declarations are available.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.97

Wednesday, 9 November 2011

Another winning day yesterday with Renard winning as expected at a bonus price of 4/1 having drifted from 9/4 so I hope those who backed it did with a best odds guaranteed bookie.(If you haven’t,  consider opening accounts with the bookies listed further down the page on the right hand side by clicking the links). The day could have been even better had Flinty Bay not made an horrendous mistake at the 2nd last when leading and unseating Dougie Costello. Two meetings today at Bangor-on-Dee and Exeter with one selection in the final race at Exeter.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +14.97

Exeter 3.50 1PT WIN Dream Function @4/1Various (Winner 2/1)
With things on a roll at the moment I am going to take a chance with a win bet on Dream Function to give away the penalty for her previous win against the potentially very useful  Swincombe Flame. I think Dream Flame is a certainty to finish in the first three but it was the way she jumped on her debut which impressed me and the form of the race is strong with the 2nd and 3rd both winning next time. Although she was not of the same class as Swincombe Flame in bumpers, Dream Function may be able to use her experience and fluent jumping to her advantage here. Well backed and always travelling well and put experience to good use jumping better than warm favourite

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

There are three meetings today at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield and after no selections for the few days I am back with two selections today.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +11.97

Sedgefield 2.00 1PT WIN Flinty Bay @5/2Various
This is a little very competitive novice handicap chase for the course and Flinty Bay is the one I fancy. He was very progressive over hurdles winning his final two races and was in touch when unseating his rider on his chasing debut at Carlisle last month. He then went to Aintree a fortnight ago and ran very well behind the promising pair of Edgardo Sol and The Cockney Mackem and I feel this should be within his capabilities, with the main danger being Going Wrong who made a pleasing comeback last time after two years off.

Lingfield 3.10 1PT WIN Renard @9/4 Various
I was kicking myself last Thursday after watch Renard winning at Chepstow as he was a horse I failed to note down in my list to follow next time after catching my eye at Carlisle on his previous run – so a 10/1 winner was missed :-(.  Based on his Carlisle run and his win last week I feel the 7lbs penalty won’t stop him and he looks like the typical Venetia Williams horse who is ahead of the handicapper and will run up  a sequence for wins over the coming weeks.

Monday, 7 November 2011

Three meetings today at Carlisle, Hereford and Southwell and a mixture of small fields and a number of interest races means there is no selection again today. Should be back with something tomorrow.

Sunday, 6 November 2011

Informative days racing yesterday with plenty of runners going into the notebook. Two meetings today at Market Rasen and Ffos Las and again having reviewed the cards there is nothing which stands out as a value bet although based on his performance last week I doubt a 7lb penalty will stop Koup De Kanon in the 2.20 at Market Rasen, but having got 3/1 last week today's price makes little appeal.