Make or Break Day

Kent Street was a poor selection yesterday as after a mistake at the first he jumped with no fluency and it was only a matter of time before he fell or unseated, which he did at half way. I still think there is ability there and he may pop in at a big price over hurdles later in the season. Two meetings today at Newbury and Ludlow.

Ludlow 1.40 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @4/1 various. (PU 7/2JF Poor effort but I found the reason on the BHA website." The representative of Jonjo O’Neill, the trainer of MOONLIGHT DRIVE (IRE), which was pulled up, reported that the gelding was unsuited by the soft ground"). So one to keep a lookout for in the spring on better ground.

I believe Moonlight Drive is a much better horse than his current rating of 125 and the move from John Quinn to Jonjo O'Neill looks interesting. The horse clearly has significant potential being a point winner and on the form of his initial novice hurdle win, when he beat Trustan Times at Wetherby. Last season was a bit of a waste after a promising novice chase debut when partnered by AP Mcoy when usual jockey Dougie Costello was suspended, he reverted back to hurdles and was disappointing. This is a fairly competitive handicap chase and I think it is make or break day for Moonlight Drive to starting fulfilling the potential he undoubtedly has, by taking this before moving on to better things.

P&L for 2012 -12.56

New Week Change of Luck?

Saturday rounded off a poor week for the blog with Double Ross making all as expected and going to the last in front only to make a terrible mistake there and then be caught on the long run in. What I didn't expect was for him to be caught and passed by three horses and end up out of the places. Still racing goes on and there are two meetings today at Kempton and Ludlow with one selection at Kempton.

Kempton 12.30 Loose Chips 0.5PT E/W @11/2 Boylesports(1ST @4/1JF Made all, jumped well, fairly comfortable)

A winner of the blog earlier in the year and went into the note book again last month when trying to make all at Haydock only to be passed and caught at the last. Was heavily eased on the run in and the handicapper has left him on the same mark. The form is strong with the winner of the Haydock race finishing 4th at Cheltenham next time and the runner up winning at Haydock on Saturday. Today's race does not look any strong than the Haydock race and with the application of blinkers for the first time he should go very close.

P&L for 2012 -9.86

One For Today

No bet yesterday but with three meetings today at Lingfield, Ludlow and an excellent competitive card at Taunton I have one bet.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +19.48 2012= -1.94

Lingfield 2.00 The Tracey Shuffle 1PT WIN @9/4B365 2ND(4/6F)

A dual bumper winner of soft ground last season before running a decent race in the Cheltenham bumper where he finished 10^th this novice hurdle looks an ideal starting point for a horse I expect to go onto much better things. A brother to the ill fated Mr Thriller and a half brother to Gaspara he has proven class in his pedigree and the trainer comments in his stable tour “He’ll be a lovely staying novice hurdler on easy going”. The main danger comes in the form of Ile De Re won the Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap at Ascot and though he's shown promise in two starts over hurdles I believe he will need an even more strenuous test of stamina to exploit his full potential. With main market rival being a non runner this looked a simple task for The Tracey Shuffle, but after a prolonged battle with Becausewecan until approaching the 2nd last he was outstayed by a 40/1 shot to leave me pulling out what hair I have left :-(.

Two For Today

After a quiet week there are three competitive meetings today at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Ludlow  1.10 The Chazer 1PT WIN@7/2 Various

Reading the form literally is small field novice chases can sometimes be misleading,  but  in this case I don’t think so and I am confident  the handicapper has got it wrong. The Chazer made his chase debut a month ago at Bangor finish 2^nd to the mighty  Peddlers Cross beaten only 4 ½ lengths. The race comment from the race are “raced keenly, held up in rear, went 2nd 8th, switched right and tried to challenge approaching last, always fighting losing battle, eased when no chance final 110yds”. What impressed me although he was never going to win his jumping was fast and accurate against a far superior rival and it was only after the last that the jockey eased off. Taking the above factors into consideration I believe the horse ran to a higher mark than the 121 he ran off that day and runs off again today. With the Richard Lee yard remaining in tremendous form he is worth a bet to see if I can prove the handicapper wrong.

Huntingdon 3.30 Amalric 1PT WIN@9/2 Various

I very rarely put selections up in bumpers but Amalric caught my eye when running a highly promising race in a competitive bumper in November. He was travelling extremely well on the inside going into the final half mile, but was short of room as the pace quickened losing valuable ground, but once clear stayed on all the way to the line to finish a comfortable 3^rd to a well regarded winner.  Today represents a race of similar class, but given the normal improvement from race 1 to race 2 I expect him to go very close.

Quiet Day and a Few Thoughts

Renard again drifted in the market from the advised price but was too good for his rivals under a very positive Aidan Coleman ride to give another 3pts profit for the blog. Historically October and November tend to be my most profitable months of the season and this year is no exception. I am hoping by doing the blog it will add further discipline when I inevitably hit a bad run and stop me trying to “gamble” my way out of it, which I have tended to do in the past, thus eroding my profits. I remember a few years ago having an excellent November and then having 18 losing bets of the trot in a two week period in December, hopefully by doing the blog this won’t happen again. Three meetings today at Ffos Las, Kempton and Ludlow and having reviewed the cards there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

The Good Run Continues

The good run continues with another winning selection yesterday with Dream Function winning the last at Exeter in very impressive fashion having been backed in from 4/1 to a starting price of 2/1 and in the process  overturing the highly regarded Swincombe Flame. Two meetings today at Ludlow and Taunton and having looked at the cards there is no bet.  I’m off the Cheltenham for the three day Paddy Power meeting tomorrow so I’ll be getting stuck into tomorrow’s card once the declarations are available.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.97