Friday, 23 November 2012

Roll On 2013

I believe there is an element of luck in betting on National Hunt racing and usually I have found that my luck evens itself out over a season. However in 2012 this hasn't happened and yesterday again I experienced further bad luck with my selection Brackloon High, who was continually backed during the day going off the 9/2 2nd favourite falling at the first, having never fallen in his life before. Given that my luck doesn't appear to have evened itself outside during 2012 hopefully the things can only get better for 2013. Anyhow there are six weeks remaining of 2012 and racing goes on with two meetings tomorrow at Haydock and Ascot and one selection at Haydock.

Haydock 12.55 Double Ross 0.5PT E/W @6/1 Stan James (4/1F Made all till a bad mistake at the last and run out of frame on run in)
Double Ross was a beaten blog selection in a novice chase over fences earlier in the season and I was at Cheltenham last weekend when he returned to hurdles and made all for a very impressive victory. He carries a 7lb penalty tomorrow but I doubt this will stop him given the manner of his victory last week and in particular his fast accurate jumping. I expect Double Ross to jump off and try and make all again tomorrow, however given my current luck I'm going each way as I am wary that there was over a furlong run in from the last to the finish line today and I'd hate to be caught on the run in.

P&L for 2012 -8.86


Ascot 3.15 Brackloon High 0.5PT E/W @9/1 Betfred  (Unbelievable. Backed into 9/2 and fell at first -when is my luck going to change?)
Brackloon High looks well handicapped in this race based on his novice chasing form last season against what in the main looks an exposed set of handicappers. Ignoring his last two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree where he was probably out of his depth, he had a progressive profile and can hopefully build on that today. The main danger appears to be Loch Ba but he has been put up a stone for winning a moderate race at Kempton last time.

P&L for 2012 -7.86

Thursday, 22 November 2012

Thursday Plot Horse?

Only Market Rasen survives today and initially when I looked there was nothing of appeal, however a more detailed second glance has found one horse of interest in the first race:-

Market Rasen  12.50 Red Jade 1PT WIN@6/5 William Hill.(3RD 5/4F very disappointing effort beaten over a mile from home)
In my initial glance I thought why has Mrs K Burke booked Nick Scholfield to ride Red Jade in this claiming race, the horse is a class above these and would win easily at his best. A more detailed analysis has revealed that the trainer is now Kieran Burke and the new owner is non other than Anthony Knott of Hunt Ball fame who is known to like a tilt at the ring especially when his horse has stones in hand. Whilst I doubt Red Jade is a Hunt Ball I would think he will have enough in hand to win this.

P&L for 2012 -6.86

Wednesday, 21 November 2012

Wet Wednesday - My Thoughts and Selections

With Warwick being off, only the meeting at Hexham survives and I expect the ground to be desperate. However there is one selection for which I expect the ground to pose no problems:-

Hexham 1.40 Dotties Dilema 1PT WIN@2/1 various.(2nd 11/4F beaten by a 125/1 outsider-ran a bit free and didn't fully get home.)
Dotties Dilema ran to free last time when disappointing favourite in a better class race at Newcastle, with the winner Duke of Naven finishing 4th in a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. Like today he was carrying a penalty, but today represents a drop in class and he is unbeaten in 2 runs at Hexham and appears to handle soft and heavy ground so the ground today shouldn't pose a problem.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

There is one horse of interest which is  not strong enough to be recommended as an official blog bets.
Hexham 3.10 Samson Collonges 1PT WIN@7/4 various.(won well last time and looked progressive, but drop back to 2 1/2 miles a slight concern) 

Monday, 19 November 2012

Quiet Monday - My Thoughts

Wishful Thinking did the business in a fashion yesterday, as I said in the write up Evs looked value in a race where conditions were in his favour and it was a race for him to lose rather than the others win. He tried his hardest to lose it with a terrible mistake at the first, but thankfully survived and his class told.

After being spoilt over the last three days at Cheltenham watching high quality horses competing for valuable prizes, today with the odd exception (1.20 Plumpton Broadbackbob) we return to usual Monday fare of low quality animals running around the "gaff tracks". Whilst there are one or two horses of interest:- 
Leicester 2.10 Court in Session (Interesting jockey booking with AP onboard)
Leicester 2.40 Open Day (Having been dropped so far in the handicap, should be capable of winning off this mark, but was disappointing at Haydock on return).
Plumpton 2.20 Camden (Satisfactory debut in a competitive novice chase at Stratford where we was wrong at the weights. Wish I could have got some of the 8/1 available last night).

Non are strong enough to be recommended as an official blog bets.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Sunday, 18 November 2012

Another Shortie

This looks a two horse race on paper and given Wishful Thinking is a class 1 performer getting weight from a handicapper Evs looks extremely good value.

Cheltenham 2.20 Wishful Thinking@Evs B365(1st @8/11F class told despite so poor jumping)

P&L for 2012 -5.44