Long Wait Till Last At Haydock

Saturday 18^th January 2014

Haydock 3.50 Straidnahanna 1PT WIN  11/4 Various .

Has run well in three novice hurdles this season and come up against the likes of Oscar Rock on debut and Racing Pulse most recently. Ran well over these obstacles in November and in receipt of 6lbs from the Woof who is tongue tied for the first time should go very close. (2nd 7/4JF heavily backed and shortheaded on the line - hard to take)

YTD Running Total -4.10PTS 

Roll On 2013

I believe there is an element of luck in betting on National Hunt racing and usually I have found that my luck evens itself out over a season. However in 2012 this hasn't happened and yesterday again I experienced further bad luck with my selection Brackloon High, who was continually backed during the day going off the 9/2 2nd favourite falling at the first, having never fallen in his life before. Given that my luck doesn't appear to have evened itself outside during 2012 hopefully the things can only get better for 2013. Anyhow there are six weeks remaining of 2012 and racing goes on with two meetings tomorrow at Haydock and Ascot and one selection at Haydock.

Haydock 12.55 Double Ross 0.5PT E/W @6/1 Stan James (4/1F Made all till a bad mistake at the last and run out of frame on run in)

Double Ross was a beaten blog selection in a novice chase over fences earlier in the season and I was at Cheltenham last weekend when he returned to hurdles and made all for a very impressive victory. He carries a 7lb penalty tomorrow but I doubt this will stop him given the manner of his victory last week and in particular his fast accurate jumping. I expect Double Ross to jump off and try and make all again tomorrow, however given my current luck I'm going each way as I am wary that there was over a furlong run in from the last to the finish line today and I'd hate to be caught on the run in.

P&L for 2012 -8.86

Friday

Ascot 3.15 Brackloon High 0.5PT E/W @9/1 Betfred  (Unbelievable. Backed into 9/2 and fell at first -when is my luck going to change?)

Brackloon High looks well handicapped in this race based on his novice chasing form last season against what in the main looks an exposed set of handicappers. Ignoring his last two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree where he was probably out of his depth, he had a progressive profile and can hopefully build on that today. The main danger appears to be Loch Ba but he has been put up a stone for winning a moderate race at Kempton last time.

P&L for 2012 -7.86

A Dangerously Handicapped Horse?

No bet again yesterday after another 2^nd on Thursday. With Haydock surviving the heavy rain all three meetings have survived and the selection comes from Wincanton.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.48 2012= -2.94

Wincanton 2.45 Shuil Royale 1/2PT WIN and 1/2PT E/W @7/2Various 1st (5/2F)

Dare I say it but I think Shuil Royale is dangerously handicapped. A dual bumper and novice hurdle winner last season he started the season off a mark of 120 and last time out at Ascot was seen doing his best work at the end of the race in a class 3 hurdle behind the highly regarded Our Father and Shoreacres (was a very good 2^nd last time out). With the very useful Tom Cannon claiming 5lb Shuil Royale today runs off 110 and I would consider him “thrown in” if the David Arbuthnot stable was in winning form(not had a winner since August) but there was encouragement in the way a runner from the stable ran earlier in the week, hence the unusual 1 and 1/2 total stake today. Well backed and won comfortably like a dangerously handicapped horse, I expect him to progress on to much better things now.

Selection For Taunton

No selection yesterday and with two meetings today at Haydock and Taunton and there is one selection at Taunton. I live about 5 miles from Haydock and am actually surprised the meeting is going ahead given all it has done for the last 48hrs is rain heavily so I would expect the ground to be very testing.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

Taunton  2.20 Rowan Tiger 1/2PT E/W @9/2Various

Rowan Tiger won very easily at Bangor last time and I would expect him to go close to defying  the penalty in this fairly competitive novice hurdle considering Tony McCoy has chosen to ride him again. However this will be no easy task as he was over 20lbs inferior on the flat to favourite Ted Spread, but like Bangor I expect him to go out and make all and put pressure on the others jumping in the later stages of the race. If he is unable to defy the penalty I cannot see him finishing outside the first three so hence at the price this is really a bet to nothing.

Fantastic Days Racing

The race Mr Moonshine won yesterday panned out as expected as he made all jumping fluently and having his rivals in trouble from three out for a comfortable win and an additional 2.75PTS for the blog. Fantastic days racing today with three meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon with one selection at Ascot.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Ascot  1.00 Bishophill Jack 1PT WIN@7/1 various. PU (4/1)

Speculative selection today with a horse that is well thought of by the yard. He has gambled on for this first run in a handicap hurdle at Huntingdon last season but ran appallingly after which his train mentioned he was a big immature baby who would be better over fences this season. After his last run the trainer commented that “Bishophill Jack jumped and ran well but showed that he needs further. Today he steps up to 3 miles and off bottom weight with Jason Maguire on board he has to be given a chance at the price available.Well backed but another appalling run and never got into any rhythm before being pulled up. One to avoid for me from now on.

Hindsight and The Benefit of Twitter

Moonlight Drive travelled and jumped well yesterday in finishing 2^nd but I wish I could have withdrawn the Blog selection after reading the following tweet from Sean Quinn trainers son “We like Moonlight Drive but its his 1st spin over fences + he will definitely come on for the run” and after the race tweeted “MD...well don't say you weren't told. Nice horse though + we're happy enough” .  So consider yesterday a temporary loan to the bookmakers that we will get back with interest at a later stage of the season, as he remains a horse with a lot of potential and is one I will keep on my side. Two meetings today at Ascot and Haydock and there is one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +27.67

Haydock 1.35 Mr Moonshine 1PT WIN @11/4 Paddy Power 1st (11/4)

I was at Carlisle a few weeks ago when Mr Moonshine comfortably beat my selection that day Hidden Keel and it was clearly no fluke. He travelled and jumped well and had my selection in trouble with over a circuit to go. Today is no easy task, as last time he was receiving weight from the field but today he has to give 8lb to his three very decent rivals, however I expect him to attempt to go out and try to make all and if he can get into a nice rhythm like at Carlisle I can see his putting pressure on his rivals jumping. As well as the weight concession there is an additional risk that after he put up a very impressive performance at Huntingdon last season he ran very flat in his following race. However the Sue Smith stable remain in good form and at the price available with the experience jumping fences I think he is a worthwhile bet. Made all jumped well, another comfortable winner

One meeting today at Haydock where there is one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +11.64

Haydock 4.00 1/2PT E/W Dammam @7/1 Various 3rd (11/4F)

I wasn’t going to put up a selection today but I see that Dammam has been backed overnight for this 3mile handicap chase. This was a selection a couple of weeks ago at Cheltenham but ended up being a non runner.  Dammam is a horse who I saw running at Stratford in the novice hunter chase final in May. Having won his previous hunter chase at Cheltenham he was well backed that night but the tight Stratford track clearly didn’t suit him and was under pressure and struggling with over a circuit to go. To his credit he battled really well and ending up running on again to take third. The only doubt I have today is that because of all the course changes over the past few years 3 miles around Haydock is no longer as stiff a test as it used to be, but given Dammam has been backed, the Fergal O’Brien stable are starting to have winners and at the price I am willing to take a chance. Heavily backed from 10/1 overnight but as I thought the 3 miles around Haydock is no longer a stiff test and he was outpaced with over a circuit to go but stayed on but could never get to the all the way winner.