Happy New Year

Wednesday 1^st January 2014

Cheltenham 12.10 Ballyalton 1PT WIN@9/4 Various 

Ballyalton was visually very impressive at the last Cheltenham meeting at a trip short of his best.  Racing Pulse is a big danger based on his impressive performance at Newcastle, but I think Ballyalton will have too much class and speed for him over this trip.
4TH 3/1(drifted in market, not able to quicken going to last, disappointing run)

Cheltenham 2.30 Double Ross 1PT WIN@2/1 Various 

I expect him to be able to defy the 7lb increase for a victory in a much more competitive race here at the last meeting, where he had the race won from the top of the hill.  Stable amongst winners again yesterday.
1ST 11/8F rule 4 (well backed, always in control, comfortable) 1.9PT Profit

Catterick 3.25 Five in a Row 1PT WIN@10/11Bet 365

Winner of a point and a bumper (second has won twice since). He was highly tried on hurdle debut behind Ballyalton and Oscar Rock. This represents a drop in class and the step up in distance is also a plus.
2ND 10/11F (disappointing in a slow tactical affair).

YTD running total -0.10PTS

Lets Try Again

Apologies for the lack of recent updates but dealing with a recent loss of my mother has had to take priority over updating the blog. 

Two meetings today at Catterick and probably the final ever meeting at Folkestone and there is one selection at Catterick 

Catterick 1.40 Kent Street 1/2PT E/W@13/2 various.(UR at half way. Did not jump with any confidence - one to avoid in the future)

Kent Street was the last selection posted on the blog and having been well back managed to unseat his rider at the 1st. He had been on my radar as a handicap chase project since the start of the season and after two encouraging runs at Carlisle I believed he had a really good chance last time. Today is a much more competitive race but provided his jumping holds up and I am taking this into consideration in the current price,  I believe he has a great E/W chance based on his earlier runs. 

P&L for 2012 -11.56

One For Today

Yesterday was frustrating with the selection Up To Something easily disposing of the odds on fav as expected only to get collared going to the last by a 20/1 outsider, but that the unpredictabilty of racing.
Moving onto today there are two meetings at Catterick and Hereford and there is one selection at Catterick.

Catterick 2.50 Kent Street 1PT WIN @4/1 various (UR 11/4F -Unbelievable second time in two weeks may selection has been well backed only to come down at the first)

Kent Street has been on my radar as a handicap chase project since the start of the season and after two encouaging runs at Carlisle I believe his chance comes today. His first run at Carlisle was very encouraging where he stayed on very well from 3 out in a competitive novice chase under hands and heels and the jockey received a ban for taking things too easy. His 2nd run was equally as good and he is now is dropped into handicap company. Despite running off top weight this is not a great race. My only concern is the step up to the extended 3 miles, but the way he was stayed on up the stiff Carlisle finish I doubt it should pose a problem.

P&L for 2012 -10.56

Winners To Flow Again?

No selection for the past few days as racing hasn’t been too great and I’ve been paper selecting in various races to prove I can still pick winners. Yesterday was good for the confidence with 5 selections and 4 winners (7/2, 7/4, 5/1 and 8/1) but not for the pocket as there was no money on them. Saturday’s selection Prospect Wells was typical of the current run – well backed and running poorly. On to today with two meeting as Catterick and Fontwell with one selection coming at Fontwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +17.42 2012= -3.0

Fontwell 3.05 Jenny’s Gold 1/2PT E/W @9/1 William Hill 4th (16/1)

Jenny’s Gold caught my eye a few weeks ago at Plumpton when being backed throughout the day for a 3 mile plus handicap hurdle.  Having backed the horse a couple of years ago when she won a bumper at Towcester I took more of an interest in her run and feel this drop back in trip today will see her go very close. During the Plumpton race she was held up at the back for the first mile and then jockey made a strange mid race move rapidly moving her from last to the leading group. Before three out she was travelling strongly and I was wishing I had been on, but from three out she faded eventually finishing 6^th. My view was she didn’t stay the extended 3 mile trip and the mid race exertions wouldn’t have helped. Today she runs off a 2lb lower mark over half a mile less and if ridden with restraint should go very close. She was available at 12/1 with VC last night but unfortunately they’ve closed my account so I couldn’t get on.Considering drift in the market was never going to win and never looked like getting placed from the home turn and plugged on the gain 4th after the last. Disappointing effort, although I still think there is a race in her.

Happy New Year To All Readers

Welcome to 2012 hopefully on a gambling front it will start in much better fashion than 2011 ended, as yesterday’s selection Tafika sum up what a disastrous month December was when falling at the first fence. The only comfort I take from my last two selections has been that they were also selected by fellow bloggers, Rowan Tiger by Patient Speculation and Tafika by Longshot, whose knowledge and reasoning I greatly respect.

On to today with five National Hunt meetings at Catterick, Cheltenham, Exeter, Fakenham and, Musselburgh. My initial selection for the day was Hawk Mountain who looked on a very good mark for his handicap debut at Fakenham and I thought the 9/4 on offer last night was massive. Sadly the ground must now be too soft and he is now a non runner, which leaves me with one other selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.42

Cheltenham 1.05 Sonovic 1PT WIN @5/4 Various Unplcd (6/5F)

I very rarely recommend backing this short but Sonovic put a highly impressive case debut at Newbury chasing home Grand Crus and given the way he won the Feltham last week I expect him to take this in receipt of weight  from Invictus and Solix on his way to better things. Paul Nichols comments on his Betfair blog stengthen my support for this selection as he comment that Sonovic delighted me when winning his novice hurdles last season, as this point winner has always been a chaser in the making. And he showed just that when running Grands Crus to two lengths at Newbury, albeit getting 7lb. The winner obviously advertised the merit of that form when winning the Feltham so impressively, meaning we clearly have a Sun Alliance horse on our hands. That said, he is not short of speed so I don't think the step back in trip will be that much of a problem.

Another Second

With Crackentorp being a non runner yesterdays only selection Maringo Bay was given a fine ride by Noel Fehily delaying his final challenge till approaching the last, but having jumped upside favourite Alfie Spinner he was clearly not as good as I thought and the favourite always had him held on the way to the line. So another second to add to the pretty dismal December statistics. Two meetings today at Leicester and Catterick and I have one selection where I am putting experience before potential with a big priced selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +23.42

Leicester 2.00 Sole Survivor 1/2PT E/W@12/1 Various

Sole Survivor was a wining selection for the blog on his seasonal debut at Warwick in November showing real battling qualities to get up on the line after looking beaten leaving the back straight. My first thoughts after that run was that he would need a step up to 2 ½ miles which he gets today.  Subsequent to his winning run I believe he ran to an improved level at Sandown last time and was bang there at the second last before making a dreadful mistake after which he was heavily eased to come home in his own time. That was a high class novice hurdle with Tetlami who was first and Knights Pass (third) both winning at  Kempton this week. Today he takes on horses of potential from the King, Henderson, Pipe and Lavelle yards but at the price I am happy to put experience before potential.