Happy New Year To All Readers

Welcome to 2012 hopefully on a gambling front it will start in much better fashion than 2011 ended, as yesterday’s selection Tafika sum up what a disastrous month December was when falling at the first fence. The only comfort I take from my last two selections has been that they were also selected by fellow bloggers, Rowan Tiger by Patient Speculation and Tafika by Longshot, whose knowledge and reasoning I greatly respect.

On to today with five National Hunt meetings at Catterick, Cheltenham, Exeter, Fakenham and, Musselburgh. My initial selection for the day was Hawk Mountain who looked on a very good mark for his handicap debut at Fakenham and I thought the 9/4 on offer last night was massive. Sadly the ground must now be too soft and he is now a non runner, which leaves me with one other selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.42

Cheltenham 1.05 Sonovic 1PT WIN @5/4 Various Unplcd (6/5F)

I very rarely recommend backing this short but Sonovic put a highly impressive case debut at Newbury chasing home Grand Crus and given the way he won the Feltham last week I expect him to take this in receipt of weight  from Invictus and Solix on his way to better things. Paul Nichols comments on his Betfair blog stengthen my support for this selection as he comment that Sonovic delighted me when winning his novice hurdles last season, as this point winner has always been a chaser in the making. And he showed just that when running Grands Crus to two lengths at Newbury, albeit getting 7lb. The winner obviously advertised the merit of that form when winning the Feltham so impressively, meaning we clearly have a Sun Alliance horse on our hands. That said, he is not short of speed so I don't think the step back in trip will be that much of a problem.

Disappearance Of Posts Was Only Temporary

Apologies for no posts over the past few days but I have been away on business and been unable to find any time to study the racing. Two meetings today at Exeter and Sandown and there is one selection at Sandown to hopefully get December off to a winning start.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Sandown 3.05 Appleaday 1PT WIN@5/2 Ladbrokes 2nd (13/8F)

This five runner handicap chase is not the most competitive and my preference is for the top weighted, front running grey Appleaday who has good form around the track and if the trainers comments re anything to go by should be up to winning a race like this as he comments on his website “Ran really well on his seasonal re-appearance at Sandown to finish third. He jumped superbly and we hope he'll win next time, possibly a return visit to Sandown on 2nd December is on the cards, as it appears to be his favourite track”. Beaten a short head - was caught on line having jumped really well.

Some Thoughts On Yesterday and a Selection For Today

What a fantastic days racing yesterday and all credit to Paul Nichols and his team for having Kauto Star spot on from what was probably his “Gold Cup” and to Ruby Walsh for giving him the perfect ride.  For me what became clear from the race is if Kauto has reached his peak and is supposedly on the downgrade then the young pretenders (Time For Rupert, Wierd Al and Diamond Harry) have much improvement to make if they are going to be serious challengers to Long Run come March. I mentioned yesterday that my selection Bishophill Jack was speculative and after being backed from 7’s into 4’s I can honestly say that is the worst performance by a selection I have put on my blog since I started in August. Never travelling or jumping with any fluency he was tailed off and pulled up with a circuit to go. Surprisingly as there is nothing reported on the BHA Steward Room “why they ran badly” section it appears the Ascot stewards didn’t bother to ask, although I’m sure there will be something later today on Kim Baileys Blog. Two meetings today at Exeter and Towcester and again one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Exeter 2.30 Renard 1PT WIN@5/2 Boylesports 1st (3/1)

Renard was a selection at Lingfield when he won last time and although up 8lbs for that win I still think he maybe ahead of the handicapper. He jumped well and won with a bit in hand last time and this stiff Exeter track should be ideal. The main danger from the betting appears to be the Phillip Hobbs trained Robin De Creuse who switch to fences is significant in that it is straight into a handicap, but he was a horse I was following last season who has a very disappointing profile and I think he will need further than this trip. So Renard is a fairly confident selection to complete the hat-trick. Jumped well, quickened home turn to get first run, comfortably competes the hat-trick.

Another winning day yesterday with Renard winning as expected at a bonus price of 4/1 having drifted from 9/4 so I hope those who backed it did with a best odds guaranteed bookie.(If you haven’t,  consider opening accounts with the bookies listed further down the page on the right hand side by clicking the links). The day could have been even better had Flinty Bay not made an horrendous mistake at the 2^nd last when leading and unseating Dougie Costello. Two meetings today at Bangor-on-Dee and Exeter with one selection in the final race at Exeter.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +14.97

Exeter 3.50 1PT WIN Dream Function @4/1Various (Winner 2/1)

With things on a roll at the moment I am going to take a chance with a win bet on Dream Function to give away the penalty for her previous win against the potentially very useful  Swincombe Flame. I think Dream Flame is a certainty to finish in the first three but it was the way she jumped on her debut which impressed me and the form of the race is strong with the 2^nd and 3^rd both winning next time. Although she was not of the same class as Swincombe Flame in bumpers, Dream Function may be able to use her experience and fluent jumping to her advantage here. Well backed and always travelling well and put experience to good use jumping better than warm favourite

Beyond after being heavily backed yesterday morning drifted on course to the price I advised and ran ok though was clearly no match for the Paul Nicholls trained King of the Night who was heavily supported on course and given a majestic ride by Ruby Walsh won very easily despite carrying top weight. Today there is a high quality card at Exeter where there is one selection in the big race.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +10.97

Exeter 2.50 1PT WIN Ghizao @11/4 William Hill 4th (9/4)

Given the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard and the receipt of 5lbs for Captain Chris I strongly fancy Ghizao to come out on top of this battle. Last season the selection beat Captain Chris twice and at Newbury gave him 10lbs. Sometimes making the odd mistake at critical stages of races Paul Nicholls mention at his open day that the horse would be  given plenty of schooling and this would be his target before going for the Tingle Creek. Very poor round of jumping