Saturday, 10 December 2011

An Old Faithful

Two poor selections on Thursday both running well below what I expected and no selection yesterday. As I write Lingfield has been abandoned so only Doncaster (still in doubt) and Cheltenham remain and there is one selection at Cheltenham.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +26.42
Cheltenham 2.30 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W@8/1 Various
Great Endeavour was a selection when he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup a month ago and in my analysis for the race I wrote “Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival” and he won the race very easily. His subsequent run in the Hennessey was a good one as he was given every chance by Timmy Murphy to get the trip and having hit the front jumping the 2nd last he clearly did not stay the 3 mile 2 furlong trip. Today he runs against a number of horses he beat in the Paddy Power but from a 10lb high mark, but I feel he is capable of beating them again as he was always travelling so comfortably throughout that race and he could be named the winner at the top of the hill. Assuming the Hennessay  has not taken too much out of him the current price is fair value.

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