A Significant Jockey Booking

My last selection on the blog was Synchronised in the Grand National who ended up tragically being killed along with According To Pete.  As an avid  follower of National Hunt racing for over 25 years death and serious injury is the sad aspect of the sport that I have had to accept ever since witnessing my favourite horse at the time Sherwood Gunner trained by Owen Brennan breaking his neck at Uttoxeter many moon ago.  For me it is not about the money lost on the bet it is more about the horse being denied the opportunity to fulfil its potential, none more so than earlier this year when Hidden Keel lost his life a Cheltenham, as the trainer had the same views as me that this horse was destined for much greater things. 

Three meetings tomorrow at Ayr, Fontwell and the first of many evening meetings at Southwell with one selection which is I think is a stand out bet based on form and jockey booking.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.92 2012 = -3.46

Ayr 3.25 Vintage Star 1PT WIN @ 7/2 Various Pulled Up (9/4F)

When looking through the card the booking of Barry Geraghty replacing a 7lb claimer for this improving hurdler of Sue’s Smith’s looking very interesting as Geraghty has only ridden once for her in the past 5 years. On the basis of his last three runs Vintage Star is an improving horse and the step back up to 3 miles should be to his advantage, as he was staying on really well at Haydock last time over and inadequate 2  1/2 miles trip in what seemed a much more competitive race than this and the handicapper has been very lenient only raising him an 1lb. Currently available at 7/2 he looks extremely good value. Backed as expected, but didn't jump well and was soon beaten once the tempo increased. Still believe he will make a nice staying novice chaser next season.

February's Elusive Winner?

Back from a short break and after what has been a disastrous month for the blog. I hope to make the last selection a winning one. There are three meetings today at Bangor-On-Dee, Folkestone and Southwell with a selection running in the first at Southwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +19.52 2012 = +0.14

Southwell 2.00 Milgan Bay 1PT WIN @5/4 William Hill

Milgan Bay comes into this four runner handicap with the best form on offer with his third at Kempton on Boxing Day looking much stronger than Ring Bo Ree, given that the winner subsequently landed a Grade 2 novice chase and the runner-up won in a big-field handicap at Cheltenham. Ring Bo Ree has solid claims after two decent performances over C&D this year but I doubt is in the class of Milgan Bay. The trainer reported on his blog that Milgan Bay was in serious form and was hard to pull up after jumping his last set of 3 fences, prior to his run in a jumpers bumper at Kempton last time out when he finished third to subsequent winner Oscar Prairie.

Milder Weather At Last

A few days break but now it appears with the milder weather that National Hunt Racing is returning back to normal and we have two meetings at Southwell and Kelso. Saturday’s selection Ostland ran okay in the circumstances as he was very fresh throughout the race and kicked on turning for home and look at one stage as if he might win comfortably(touched 1.37 in running on Betfair), before weakening dramatically after the 2^nd last.  One selection today at Kelso.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +23.08 2012 = +3.7

Kelso  2.40 Swallow 1/2PT E/W @11/1 Various

Swallow get into this first handicap off a mark of 105 after 3 runs in novice hurdles this season when priced at 100/1, 66/1 and 100/1.The form of his last run at Doncaster looks impressive with the four horses finishing in front of him winning last time out. Swallow jumped exceptionally throughout the race and only weakened from two out.The train comments on his website that the most interesting runners for the middle to the end of the week will probably be Swallow at Kelso in the 0-110 Handicap Hurdle as the form of his Doncaster race is looking solid. With the stable having two winners yesterday and stable jockey Brian Hughes being onboard for the first time this looks a good opportunity for Swallow to open is account.

Another Second and Link to an Excellent New Website

Sammy Spiderman finished 2nd yesterday and was beaten by a well handicapped horse in Allanard, although looking back greed got the better of me in having the bet as I did put in the write up that I was worried that the ground may not be soft enough for my selection, which was reflected with the market drift. From the way he jumped and ran I think Sammy Spiderman is at peak fitness and if he turns up again at Ayr in two weeks time and the ground has gone heavy then he would be worth another consideration. Two meetings today at Newbury and Southwell but I cannot find a selection. One of the most interesting races today is the hunter chase at Newbury and although I don't bet in these type of races I was very impressed when I saw My Flora win at Stratford last May and I have just come across the following site www.hunterchases.com which gives a comprehensive analysis of today's race

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +19.48 2012= -1.94 

Losing Run Continues

Prosecco ran a strange race on Monday having been backed from 4/1 into 5/2. He was another selection who didn't jump with any fluency and despite moving into second on the home turn was never going to get close to the winner and eventually faded into 5th.
So a disappointing start to the year making it 10 successive losers since Invictus won at Plumpton on 6th December. I still remain positive as most of the losing selections have started at shorter prices than advised and other bloggers I respect are independantly coming up with the same selections as me, so its not t's not as though I'm wide of the mark and selecting no hopers. I've been in this game long enough to expect these runs and I will continue with my tried and tested method knowing that in the long run my statistics will show a profit.

Two meetings today at Huntingdon and Southwell but there is no selection.