February's Elusive Winner?

Back from a short break and after what has been a disastrous month for the blog. I hope to make the last selection a winning one. There are three meetings today at Bangor-On-Dee, Folkestone and Southwell with a selection running in the first at Southwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +19.52 2012 = +0.14

Southwell 2.00 Milgan Bay 1PT WIN @5/4 William Hill

Milgan Bay comes into this four runner handicap with the best form on offer with his third at Kempton on Boxing Day looking much stronger than Ring Bo Ree, given that the winner subsequently landed a Grade 2 novice chase and the runner-up won in a big-field handicap at Cheltenham. Ring Bo Ree has solid claims after two decent performances over C&D this year but I doubt is in the class of Milgan Bay. The trainer reported on his blog that Milgan Bay was in serious form and was hard to pull up after jumping his last set of 3 fences, prior to his run in a jumpers bumper at Kempton last time out when he finished third to subsequent winner Oscar Prairie.

Selection At Taunton

Loose Chip was very disappointing on Sunday. Cruising 3 out he stopped very quickly and although there was a doubt about the getting the trip I think there was probably another problem. No excuses for the other selection Maringo Bay who put to a good performance but was beaten by a classier horse. He remains of interest to me probably in staying handicaps later in the season although he does hold an entry in the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Two meetings today at Wetherby and Taunton and there is one selection at Taunton.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +20.52 2012 = +1.14 Unplcd(8/1)

Taunton 2.00 Giordano Bruno 1/2PT E/W @7/1 Various

Giordano Bruno made an interesting debut at Taunton 6 weeks ago after almost 3 years off the course. Jumped out in front he caught my eye as he travelled smoothly throughout the race until lack of peak fitness caught up with him turning for home where he was passed by Darlan and Jump City. Once headed Richard Johnson gave him an easy time. I got the impression from this run that there is much more to come and although today is no easy task with natural progression I would not expect him to be out of the first three, although odds on favourite Urbain De Sivola may be a tough nut to crack I have a doubt that this tight track may not suit him. Held up in last never put in the race at any stage, clearly looking to get a handicap mark for later in the season? Reported finished lame.

Two For Today

A very quiet week on the betting front with just with just the one selection since last Saturday who was heavily backed from 11/1 into 9/2 Fav but then disappointed during the race not jumping as fluently as he had in previous races. There are two meetings today at Market Rasen and Ffos Las and there are selections at both meetings.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +22.08 2012 = +2.70

Ffos Las 2.00 Loose Chips 1PT WIN @11/4 Various Unplcd (10/3)

Loose Chip was a winning selection for the blog at Towcester about a month ago over two miles when winning at 7/1. He won very comfortably that day and  trainer Charlie Longsdon has the final of this EBF series as his long term objective. The stable also have a line to the favourite who they trained to win a NH Bumper earlier in the season, so at the price he represents good value to follow up.Poor effort weakened dramatically from home turn clearly something amiss.

Market Rasen  3.15 Maringo Bay 1/2PT E/W and 1/2PT WIN @7/2 various (2nd 5/2)

Maringo Bay was a selection last time in December when running 2^nd to Alfie Spinner at Chepstow. At the time I said it was money lent and today is the day to recoup the loses. His form in all this novice chases is solid with his third behind Invictus at Plumpton in December looking very impressive given the way Invictus won the grade 2  Reynoldstown chase yesterday at Ascot yesterday. Today he receives weight from his two market rivals and with the Charlie Mann stable in much better form than December I expect him to go very close although I have a lot of respect for favourite Mics Delight hence the strange staking recommendation. Well backed again and jumped exceptionally but just beaten by a classier horse. Has an entry in 4 mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and the 33/1 with William Hill looks tempting.

Milder Weather At Last

A few days break but now it appears with the milder weather that National Hunt Racing is returning back to normal and we have two meetings at Southwell and Kelso. Saturday’s selection Ostland ran okay in the circumstances as he was very fresh throughout the race and kicked on turning for home and look at one stage as if he might win comfortably(touched 1.37 in running on Betfair), before weakening dramatically after the 2^nd last.  One selection today at Kelso.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +23.08 2012 = +3.7

Kelso  2.40 Swallow 1/2PT E/W @11/1 Various

Swallow get into this first handicap off a mark of 105 after 3 runs in novice hurdles this season when priced at 100/1, 66/1 and 100/1.The form of his last run at Doncaster looks impressive with the four horses finishing in front of him winning last time out. Swallow jumped exceptionally throughout the race and only weakened from two out.The train comments on his website that the most interesting runners for the middle to the end of the week will probably be Swallow at Kelso in the 0-110 Handicap Hurdle as the form of his Doncaster race is looking solid. With the stable having two winners yesterday and stable jockey Brian Hughes being onboard for the first time this looks a good opportunity for Swallow to open is account.

Back With An Old Favourite.

After an enforced break due to the weather the blog is back with one selection tomorrow at the only National Hunt meeting to survive at Musselburgh.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

Musselburgh  2.35 Ostland 1/2PT E/W @9/1 Various Unplcd (9/1)

Ostland was a winning selection over fences for the blog back in October and returns after a break to carry top weight in this competitive handicap hurdle and is the selection for a number of factors. He is 8lb better off than his chase rating, it is his first hurdle attempt over 3 miles although he has won over the distance when chasing, he has a preference for going right handed, jockey Kielan Woods is well worth his 5lb claim and the stable remain in good form with a winner at Kempton today. In his last run over hurdles last April at Cheltenham over two and half miles he took up the running on the home turn but was outpaced going to the last and stayed on at one pace up the hill. As all his subsequent runs in chases have been over further the trip should be no problem and his trainer comment on his website that  I did not think he would be ready to run so quickly, however after a sparkling bit of work on Wednesday in Lambourn, we have decided to take a chance.  Taking the factors above into consideration and the price available I think it is worth backing him. Ran too free throughout race went on home turn and actually traded at 1.37 in running before weakening.

Little Value Yesterday

Lie Forret turned out to be poor value at odds on yesterday as the race turned into a tactical affair and he was outpaced from two out to the last before staying on strongly after the last. Given how the race was run he will be of interest again possibly in big handicap chases later in the season where he will get a truly run race and his stamina can come into play. So one point dropped on the day.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

With the cold snap still with us there will be no blog update now until Thursday at the earliest if Taunton survives.

Value In An Odds On Bet?

A week on from a successful winning bet with Sammy Spiderman at Ayr we return to the track again for another bet this time in the three runner novice chase.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +5.70 

Ayr 2.35 Lie Forrit 1PT WIN @5/6 Various 2nd(EvsF)

Only three runners go to post for this novice chase and whilst I do not like betting odds-on in novice chases at the prices Lie Forrit appears to be a value bet.  Easily the best of these over hurdles he made a very pleasing novice chase debut at Kelso in November after being off 20 months with injury. What impressed me about his debut run was his quick accurate jumping and given quite a bit to do from 3 out showed great battling qualities to run down Blenheim Brook on the run in. Whether it was the bounce factor or the effects of a hard race Lie Forrit returned to Kelso 25 days later and didn’t jump as well and was unable to peg back Blenheim Brook’s stable mate Bold Sir Brian on the run in. Today the step up in trip is a big plus for Lie Forrit who at his best over hurdles is 18lbs better than Blenheim Brook so at the current price is in my opinion a value bet. Outpaced at critical stage in a very tactical race and stayed on really well after the last.