Monday, 6 February 2012

Value In An Odds On Bet?

A week on from a successful winning bet with Sammy Spiderman at Ayr we return to the track again for another bet this time in the three runner novice chase.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +5.70 

Ayr 2.35 Lie Forrit 1PT WIN @5/6 Various 2nd(EvsF)
Only three runners go to post for this novice chase and whilst I do not like betting odds-on in novice chases at the prices Lie Forrit appears to be a value bet.  Easily the best of these over hurdles he made a very pleasing novice chase debut at Kelso in November after being off 20 months with injury. What impressed me about his debut run was his quick accurate jumping and given quite a bit to do from 3 out showed great battling qualities to run down Blenheim Brook on the run in. Whether it was the bounce factor or the effects of a hard race Lie Forrit returned to Kelso 25 days later and didn’t jump as well and was unable to peg back Blenheim Brook’s stable mate Bold Sir Brian on the run in. Today the step up in trip is a big plus for Lie Forrit who at his best over hurdles is 18lbs better than Blenheim Brook so at the current price is in my opinion a value bet. Outpaced at critical stage in a very tactical race and stayed on really well after the last.

No comments:

Post a Comment