Milder Weather At Last

A few days break but now it appears with the milder weather that National Hunt Racing is returning back to normal and we have two meetings at Southwell and Kelso. Saturday’s selection Ostland ran okay in the circumstances as he was very fresh throughout the race and kicked on turning for home and look at one stage as if he might win comfortably(touched 1.37 in running on Betfair), before weakening dramatically after the 2^nd last.  One selection today at Kelso.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +23.08 2012 = +3.7

Kelso  2.40 Swallow 1/2PT E/W @11/1 Various

Swallow get into this first handicap off a mark of 105 after 3 runs in novice hurdles this season when priced at 100/1, 66/1 and 100/1.The form of his last run at Doncaster looks impressive with the four horses finishing in front of him winning last time out. Swallow jumped exceptionally throughout the race and only weakened from two out.The train comments on his website that the most interesting runners for the middle to the end of the week will probably be Swallow at Kelso in the 0-110 Handicap Hurdle as the form of his Doncaster race is looking solid. With the stable having two winners yesterday and stable jockey Brian Hughes being onboard for the first time this looks a good opportunity for Swallow to open is account.

Back With An Old Favourite.

After an enforced break due to the weather the blog is back with one selection tomorrow at the only National Hunt meeting to survive at Musselburgh.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

Musselburgh  2.35 Ostland 1/2PT E/W @9/1 Various Unplcd (9/1)

Ostland was a winning selection over fences for the blog back in October and returns after a break to carry top weight in this competitive handicap hurdle and is the selection for a number of factors. He is 8lb better off than his chase rating, it is his first hurdle attempt over 3 miles although he has won over the distance when chasing, he has a preference for going right handed, jockey Kielan Woods is well worth his 5lb claim and the stable remain in good form with a winner at Kempton today. In his last run over hurdles last April at Cheltenham over two and half miles he took up the running on the home turn but was outpaced going to the last and stayed on at one pace up the hill. As all his subsequent runs in chases have been over further the trip should be no problem and his trainer comment on his website that  I did not think he would be ready to run so quickly, however after a sparkling bit of work on Wednesday in Lambourn, we have decided to take a chance.  Taking the factors above into consideration and the price available I think it is worth backing him. Ran too free throughout race went on home turn and actually traded at 1.37 in running before weakening.

Little Value Yesterday

Lie Forret turned out to be poor value at odds on yesterday as the race turned into a tactical affair and he was outpaced from two out to the last before staying on strongly after the last. Given how the race was run he will be of interest again possibly in big handicap chases later in the season where he will get a truly run race and his stamina can come into play. So one point dropped on the day.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +4.7

With the cold snap still with us there will be no blog update now until Thursday at the earliest if Taunton survives.

Value In An Odds On Bet?

A week on from a successful winning bet with Sammy Spiderman at Ayr we return to the track again for another bet this time in the three runner novice chase.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +5.70 

Ayr 2.35 Lie Forrit 1PT WIN @5/6 Various 2nd(EvsF)

Only three runners go to post for this novice chase and whilst I do not like betting odds-on in novice chases at the prices Lie Forrit appears to be a value bet.  Easily the best of these over hurdles he made a very pleasing novice chase debut at Kelso in November after being off 20 months with injury. What impressed me about his debut run was his quick accurate jumping and given quite a bit to do from 3 out showed great battling qualities to run down Blenheim Brook on the run in. Whether it was the bounce factor or the effects of a hard race Lie Forrit returned to Kelso 25 days later and didn’t jump as well and was unable to peg back Blenheim Brook’s stable mate Bold Sir Brian on the run in. Today the step up in trip is a big plus for Lie Forrit who at his best over hurdles is 18lbs better than Blenheim Brook so at the current price is in my opinion a value bet. Outpaced at critical stage in a very tactical race and stayed on really well after the last.

January 2012 Results

I have updated the January results on a new page in the blog. The main purpose of the blog is to add further discipline to my betting and in summary I only had 13 bets in January with 4 winners and after a poor start to the year things picked up second half of the month to leave me with a profit of 5.70pts and a return on investment of 42%.

Conditions Spot On For Sammy?

No bet yesterday. Two meetings today at Ayr and Plumpton and there is one selection at Ayr after it survives a morning inspection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +3.2

Ayr  2.55 Sammy Spiderman 1PT WIN @2/1 Various 1ST (5/2F)

Sammy Spiderman was a selection two weeks ago when finishing second at this course after which I wrote “Sammy Spiderman finished 2nd yesterday and was beaten by a well handicapped horse in Allanard, although looking back greed got the better of me in having the bet as I did put in the write up that I was worried that the ground may not be soft enough for my selection, which was reflected with the market drift. From the way he jumped and ran I think Sammy Spiderman is at peak fitness and if he turns up again at Ayr in two weeks time and the ground has gone heavy then he would be worth another consideration”. Since then Allanard has run again in a much better race at Newcastle and looked the winner until falling two out. Sammy Spiderman drops back to two miles and five furlongs today which is a slight concern but given he has his favoured heavy ground and that fact he is in receipt of weight from all his rivals I expect him to record win number five at the course. Its great when a plan comes to fruition but watching I was never comfortable he would catch all the way leader Something Silver until halfway up the run in when Sammy Spiderman's stamina came into play.

Nothing Today

I was disappointed with Hinterland yesterday as and after travelling well to the home turn was outpaced as the tempo quickened, before staying on up the hill to take third. Two meetings today at Ffos Las and Sedgefield but the quality on offer is very poor so there is no bet. 
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +25.08 2012 = +3.2