A Significant Jockey Booking

My last selection on the blog was Synchronised in the Grand National who ended up tragically being killed along with According To Pete.  As an avid  follower of National Hunt racing for over 25 years death and serious injury is the sad aspect of the sport that I have had to accept ever since witnessing my favourite horse at the time Sherwood Gunner trained by Owen Brennan breaking his neck at Uttoxeter many moon ago.  For me it is not about the money lost on the bet it is more about the horse being denied the opportunity to fulfil its potential, none more so than earlier this year when Hidden Keel lost his life a Cheltenham, as the trainer had the same views as me that this horse was destined for much greater things. 

Three meetings tomorrow at Ayr, Fontwell and the first of many evening meetings at Southwell with one selection which is I think is a stand out bet based on form and jockey booking.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.92 2012 = -3.46

Ayr 3.25 Vintage Star 1PT WIN @ 7/2 Various Pulled Up (9/4F)

When looking through the card the booking of Barry Geraghty replacing a 7lb claimer for this improving hurdler of Sue’s Smith’s looking very interesting as Geraghty has only ridden once for her in the past 5 years. On the basis of his last three runs Vintage Star is an improving horse and the step back up to 3 miles should be to his advantage, as he was staying on really well at Haydock last time over and inadequate 2  1/2 miles trip in what seemed a much more competitive race than this and the handicapper has been very lenient only raising him an 1lb. Currently available at 7/2 he looks extremely good value. Backed as expected, but didn't jump well and was soon beaten once the tempo increased. Still believe he will make a nice staying novice chaser next season.

Nothing Today

With the ground having changed at Cheltenham there is no selection today, but there will be at least one selection tomorrow, which I will post later today once the prices are available.

Grand National Selection

Disappointing effort from Little Josh yesterday who tried to make all but a number of small jumping mistakes put paid to his chances and he eventually finished 7^th. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Chepstow and there is one selection in the Grand National.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +16.92 2012 = -2.46

Aintree 4.15 Synchronised  1/2PT E/W @ 10/1 William Hill Fell and tragically had to be destroyed

Not a race I would usually have a selection in but Synchronised arrives at Aintree in the form of his life and I expect him to go very close to completing the Gold Cup/Grand National double. I actually back Synchronised antipost for the Welsh National earlier in the season after a promising run at Haydock over hurdles only for him to be withdrawn at the declaration stage and run and win the Lexus chase. His performance in the Gold Cup was all about stamina and being a former winner of the Midlands National the trip and ground should pose no problems.  AP McCoy has mentioned in press reports this week that he is a much classier horse than his previous winner Don’t Push It and the current 10/1 available as I write this appears value as he has been as low as 6/1 in the anti post market and it has been mentioned that he could go off at half his current price when the once a year punter get involved in betting tomorrow.

Back With A Winner

Nice to return with a well backed winner yesterday in Grumeti and with Gullinbursti being a non runner it was a 100% return for the blog. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Sedgefield and there is one selections at Aintree.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +17.92 2012 = -1.46

Aintree 3.40 Little Josh 1/2PT E/W @ 8/1 Bet 365 (paying 5 places)Unplcd (6/1F)

Little Josh caught my eye on his seasonal debut in a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham in January, where he was travelling as well as the winner Midnight Chase at the top of the hill ,but clearly did not stay the extended 3 mile trip. He has subsequently run in two Grade 1 race where he has been out of is depth and today returns to handicap company off a mark 9lb lower than Cheltenham and 1lb lower than when he won the Paddy power in 2010. If he takes to these fences then I think he has a serious chance. Seemed to take to the fences, but didn't jump as well as he could and clearly not as good as he once was when finishing 7th.

Blog is Back

Along time since my last post due to work commitments and with time still limited the write up’s will be much more succinct. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Newton Abbot and there are two selections at Aintree, unfortunately both are likely to go off favourite.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +14.52 2012 = -4.86

Aintree 2.30 Grumeti 1PT WIN @ 4/1 William Hills 1st (11/4F)Rule 4

I expect Grumeti to come out on top of those who he opposed in the Triumph hurdle as that race was run at a crawl and provided the race is run at a good pace I expect this flat track to play to his strengths. A very game performance to win well in the end after being hampered by the sad sight of Gottany Os suffering a fatal injury.

Aintree 5.35 Gullinburtsi 1/2PT E/W @9/2 Bet365 paying 5 places. Non Runner

A very competitive 3 mile handicap hurdle in which Gullinbursti has some very strong form in novice hurdles before making a highly encouraging handicap debut at Newbury, beaten a neck by the unbeaten Knock a Hand. Up 5lb for that effort he still looks well weighted and I expect further improvement on this softer ground.

Poor Poor Poor

I have just updated the performance for March which shows another losing month and a total loss for the year of -4.86pts. This is a very poor effort compared to my performance over the past few years. However, my circumstances have changed significantly this year with the demands of my job significantly impacting on the amount of time I have been able to dedicate to form study, resulting in hardly any bets. With the pressures at work hopefully easing off now and Aintree on the horizon I will hopefully be able to find more time to blog over the coming weeks and at least get the year back into profit.

Bit Better Racing Today

Saturday 24^th March

Apologies for last Saturday’s selection who I was extremely bullish about, but Maringo Bay ran no sort of race at all and I am not aware of a reason for his poor performance.  I still believe there is a big handicap to be won by the horse but I think it will be next season now. The racing has been dire this week and nothing has interested me and until today where I will be backing one horse who has appeared on the blog before.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.52 2012 = -3.86

Stratford 2.00 Loose Chips 1PT WIN 3/1 @Bet 365

Loose Chip was a winning selection earlier in the season at Towcester and was disappointing just over a month ago at Ffos Las, when after travelling well behind the leaders turning in he stopped very quickly down the home straight as was almost pulled up. At the time it looked to me that something was amiss and it transpired that there was coughing in the Charlie Longsdon yard at the time. Assuming the horse has now recovered I feel this race is a good opportunity for him to get back to winning ways given the way he won a Towcester and that fact the trainer was aiming him for a big race at Sandown prior to his last run.