Sunday, 16 October 2011

Sunday 16th October

Yesterday was disappointing as we only broke even, despite the two selections being heavily backed. Firstly Vosges was well backed into 4/1 but was never travelling as well as expected and was beaten with a circuit to go. James Ewart tweeted last night that they will reconsider the trip for future runs. The second selection Secret Tune continued to be backed all day before going off 9/2F. He moved into contention 1/2mile out but was very one paced and stayed on to take 3rd. The main points to take away from my two days at Cheltenham are the Paul Nichols horses look and are running like they need their first runs of the season and the Phillip Hobbs runners despite a winner yesterday seem to be running flat (only 2 winners in past 14 days). One meeting today at Kempton and given the above comments a very tricky selection.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81

Kempton 4.25 1PT LAY Nearby@2.8(Winning Lay 0.95PT Profit)
I thought Nearby would make a decent chaser but appears not to be in love with the game and has shown no sparkle over fences running well below his official rating. He reverts back to hurdles here and according to the handicapper appears 11lb well in at the weights. However looking back at his form he has not won for 8 races and his performances over fences would suggest he is no longer as good as his rating and looks as though he is on a downward curve. 

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