Sunday, 16 October 2011

Monday 17th October

Spot on with the Lay on Nearby today it is a horse definitely on the downward grade and was no match for the progressive Pepe Simo who would have been a backed selection if the Paul Nichols stable had been in better form. There is one very poor meeting at Plumpton tomorrow and I wouldn’t usually be getting involved in this type of card, but after a quick glance through the runners there is one horse that caught my eye and at the current price available is worth a bet.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +10.76

Plumpton 3.50 1PT WIN Runshan @3/1 with Paddy Power - Winner (5/4F)
This is a race where the new whip rules may play to our advantage as Runshan is very one paced plodder who likes to lead and if he is allowed to dominate he may be able to get his other three rivals off the bridle with a circuit to go and with only three cracks allowed before the final fence they may struggle to peg him back. Runshan caught my eye on his seasonal debut two weeks ago at Uttoxeter, making most and jumping well for Tom Scudamore over an inadequate trip before failing to give 23lbs to an inform rival.The trip up from 21 to 26 furlongs today is a big advantage and the David Bridgewater stable is in excellent form at the moment with two winners and a second from four runners in the past 14 day and Tom Scuadmore has a record off one win and two seconds on this horse in the past 12 months. Taking all these factors into consideration I think this is an excellent bet at 3/1.

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