Two For Today

Little time for a full write up today but two selections.

Newbury 12.20 Arbeo 1/2PT E/W @9/2 various(1ST 4/1JF made all. A welcome winner for the blog)

Newbury 2.10 Maringo Bay 1/2PT E/W@8/1 various(NR but interesting if takes up engagement at Haydock tomorrow)

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Quiet Boxing Day

Plenty of meetings today but with the ground riding heavy at almost all meetings and the markets looking tight for the horses I was interested in there is no selection today.

P&L for 2012 -13.56

Make or Break Day

Kent Street was a poor selection yesterday as after a mistake at the first he jumped with no fluency and it was only a matter of time before he fell or unseated, which he did at half way. I still think there is ability there and he may pop in at a big price over hurdles later in the season. Two meetings today at Newbury and Ludlow.

Ludlow 1.40 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @4/1 various. (PU 7/2JF Poor effort but I found the reason on the BHA website." The representative of Jonjo O’Neill, the trainer of MOONLIGHT DRIVE (IRE), which was pulled up, reported that the gelding was unsuited by the soft ground"). So one to keep a lookout for in the spring on better ground.

I believe Moonlight Drive is a much better horse than his current rating of 125 and the move from John Quinn to Jonjo O'Neill looks interesting. The horse clearly has significant potential being a point winner and on the form of his initial novice hurdle win, when he beat Trustan Times at Wetherby. Last season was a bit of a waste after a promising novice chase debut when partnered by AP Mcoy when usual jockey Dougie Costello was suspended, he reverted back to hurdles and was disappointing. This is a fairly competitive handicap chase and I think it is make or break day for Moonlight Drive to starting fulfilling the potential he undoubtedly has, by taking this before moving on to better things.

P&L for 2012 -12.56

Lets Try Again

Apologies for the lack of recent updates but dealing with a recent loss of my mother has had to take priority over updating the blog. 

Two meetings today at Catterick and probably the final ever meeting at Folkestone and there is one selection at Catterick 

Catterick 1.40 Kent Street 1/2PT E/W@13/2 various.(UR at half way. Did not jump with any confidence - one to avoid in the future)

Kent Street was the last selection posted on the blog and having been well back managed to unseat his rider at the 1st. He had been on my radar as a handicap chase project since the start of the season and after two encouraging runs at Carlisle I believed he had a really good chance last time. Today is a much more competitive race but provided his jumping holds up and I am taking this into consideration in the current price,  I believe he has a great E/W chance based on his earlier runs. 

P&L for 2012 -11.56

Guaranteed Result For Today

I can guarantee that my selection will not fall at the first as I've not got one!!!!!!!!

Deja Vu yesterday as Kent Street was nicely backed only to make a mistake and unseat Ryan Mania at the first fence to follow on from Brackloon High who did the same thing a couple of weeks ago to continue my run of bad luck. Over the last 30 years I've had runs of bad luck but this is different as it appears to have lasted for most of the year and have never had a consistent run of winners. I don't intend to change my selection criteria as I take comfort from previous years records that it will turn at some stage and the winners will flow on a regular basis again.

The meeting at Wincanton survives but there is no selection.

P&L for 2012 -11.56

One For Today

Yesterday was frustrating with the selection Up To Something easily disposing of the odds on fav as expected only to get collared going to the last by a 20/1 outsider, but that the unpredictabilty of racing.
Moving onto today there are two meetings at Catterick and Hereford and there is one selection at Catterick.

Catterick 2.50 Kent Street 1PT WIN @4/1 various (UR 11/4F -Unbelievable second time in two weeks may selection has been well backed only to come down at the first)

Kent Street has been on my radar as a handicap chase project since the start of the season and after two encouaging runs at Carlisle I believe his chance comes today. His first run at Carlisle was very encouraging where he stayed on very well from 3 out in a competitive novice chase under hands and heels and the jockey received a ban for taking things too easy. His 2nd run was equally as good and he is now is dropped into handicap company. Despite running off top weight this is not a great race. My only concern is the step up to the extended 3 miles, but the way he was stayed on up the stiff Carlisle finish I doubt it should pose a problem.

P&L for 2012 -10.56

Double Recovery Mission

Double recovery mission today in attempting to recover from a poor start to the month on Saturday and recover money lost on a previous selection who ran badly in November. Today there are two meetings at Folkestone and Towcester and there is one selection at Towcester. 

Towcester 1.50 Up To Something 1PT WIN@11/4 various(2nd 9/4 as expected got the odds on Fav beaten only to be done by 18/1 outsider)

Up To Something was a short price selection for the blog at the beginning of November when running terrible at Uttoxeter and being pulled up. It transpires he was a sick horse that day and the form of that race has probably some of the best novice hurdle form on offer so far this season with winner Coneygree subsequently winning impressively at Cheltenham and runner up Corrin Wood losing out by a neck to highly regarded Gevrey Chambertin at Haydock last Friday and the third also winning. For Up To Something to be sent of at such a short price in a race of that quality shows the ability he obviously has and the current price of 11/4 look fair value against the odds on fav, to discover if his poor effort last time was a one off.

P&L for 2012 -9.56

Three For Today

Small winning month in November but again a month plagued by bad luck. There are 26 more day of racing planned for December and my target remains to achieve break-even in what is looking to be my worst ever year for gambling on the horses. It looks like the three meeting at Newbury, Newcastle and Towcester have survived and there are three selections.
A poor day. Managed to beat the SP in all races but that no good if the selections don't win.

Newbury 1.25 Global Power 1/2PT E/W@10/1various (Unplaced 8/1 look to be travelling well till 6 out but seemed one paced after that)
The Oliver Sherwood stable are in tremendous form at the moment and Global Power runs in this competitive novices handicap chase off an attractive mark having according to the trainer been wrong all last season. The trainer comments on his blog today "Global Power is in great form at home and will put up a bold show at a track that should suit. His jumping was good at Fontwell and that race has brought him on a lot physically and mentally. This looks a competitive race but he has a great ew chance".

Towcester 2.10 Thomas Crapper 1PT WIN@3/1 Betfred (4th 15/8F never really got competitive very disappointing effort)
Drop in class from his run behind The New One at Cheltenham last time, where he ran very much like a stayer, so this stiff track should suit. He sets the standard here having been fifth in the EBF final on his final run last season behind the highly regarded Ambion Wood.

Newcastle 2.20 Cinders and Ashes 1PT WIN Evs@William Hill ( 2nd 10/11F never looked happy at any stage)
Winner of last seasons Supreme Novices hurdle at Cheltenham who acts well on heavy ground. This looks an ideal starting point for the season in a race the stable have won for the last couple of seasons with Peddlers Cross and Overturn.

Nothing Today

Another day of competitive racing with three meetings at Doncaster, Musselburgh and Newbury and there is no selection. November has shown a small profit and I will update the pages later.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Plenty of Racing Today

After a blank day yesterday National Hunt racing returns today with three cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter and whilst there are plenty of runners of interest there are no official blog bets as the racing is fairly competitive as exemplified by the 2.05 at Newbury where I would be interested in backing 5 of the 6 runners if they were not running against each other.

Two horses of interest today:- 

Utt 12.25 My Flora (Very good hunter chaser during the last couple of season and now being professionally trained by Donald McCain. I assume the Mares only race at the Cheltenham festival will be the long term target if they stick to the hurdling route so should have the class to win this race over two miles but not prepared to back at odds on to find out as there will be better opportunities to back her over longer trips later in the season).

Taun 3.55 Miss Exhibitionist ( Up 7lb for winning well at Lingfield last time and could be able to defy the rise now dropped back into a mares only handicap)

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Change of Luck at Last

Loose Chips made all yesterday and jumped superbly for a fairly comfortable victory, and was a welcomed winner of the blog. Having experienced a significant amount of bad luck last week it was nice for once to see the selection backed and things go to plan in the race. Moving on to today the meeting at Lingfield has survived but the ground will be desperate and there is nothing that appeals. With  tomorrows meetings already abandoned  my next update will be on Thursday at the earliest.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

New Week Change of Luck?

Saturday rounded off a poor week for the blog with Double Ross making all as expected and going to the last in front only to make a terrible mistake there and then be caught on the long run in. What I didn't expect was for him to be caught and passed by three horses and end up out of the places. Still racing goes on and there are two meetings today at Kempton and Ludlow with one selection at Kempton.

Kempton 12.30 Loose Chips 0.5PT E/W @11/2 Boylesports(1ST @4/1JF Made all, jumped well, fairly comfortable)

A winner of the blog earlier in the year and went into the note book again last month when trying to make all at Haydock only to be passed and caught at the last. Was heavily eased on the run in and the handicapper has left him on the same mark. The form is strong with the winner of the Haydock race finishing 4th at Cheltenham next time and the runner up winning at Haydock on Saturday. Today's race does not look any strong than the Haydock race and with the application of blinkers for the first time he should go very close.

P&L for 2012 -9.86

Roll On 2013

I believe there is an element of luck in betting on National Hunt racing and usually I have found that my luck evens itself out over a season. However in 2012 this hasn't happened and yesterday again I experienced further bad luck with my selection Brackloon High, who was continually backed during the day going off the 9/2 2nd favourite falling at the first, having never fallen in his life before. Given that my luck doesn't appear to have evened itself outside during 2012 hopefully the things can only get better for 2013. Anyhow there are six weeks remaining of 2012 and racing goes on with two meetings tomorrow at Haydock and Ascot and one selection at Haydock.

Haydock 12.55 Double Ross 0.5PT E/W @6/1 Stan James (4/1F Made all till a bad mistake at the last and run out of frame on run in)

Double Ross was a beaten blog selection in a novice chase over fences earlier in the season and I was at Cheltenham last weekend when he returned to hurdles and made all for a very impressive victory. He carries a 7lb penalty tomorrow but I doubt this will stop him given the manner of his victory last week and in particular his fast accurate jumping. I expect Double Ross to jump off and try and make all again tomorrow, however given my current luck I'm going each way as I am wary that there was over a furlong run in from the last to the finish line today and I'd hate to be caught on the run in.

P&L for 2012 -8.86

Friday

Ascot 3.15 Brackloon High 0.5PT E/W @9/1 Betfred  (Unbelievable. Backed into 9/2 and fell at first -when is my luck going to change?)

Brackloon High looks well handicapped in this race based on his novice chasing form last season against what in the main looks an exposed set of handicappers. Ignoring his last two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree where he was probably out of his depth, he had a progressive profile and can hopefully build on that today. The main danger appears to be Loch Ba but he has been put up a stone for winning a moderate race at Kempton last time.

P&L for 2012 -7.86

Thursday Plot Horse?

Only Market Rasen survives today and initially when I looked there was nothing of appeal, however a more detailed second glance has found one horse of interest in the first race:-

Market Rasen  12.50 Red Jade 1PT WIN@6/5 William Hill.(3RD 5/4F very disappointing effort beaten over a mile from home)
In my initial glance I thought why has Mrs K Burke booked Nick Scholfield to ride Red Jade in this claiming race, the horse is a class above these and would win easily at his best. A more detailed analysis has revealed that the trainer is now Kieran Burke and the new owner is non other than Anthony Knott of Hunt Ball fame who is known to like a tilt at the ring especially when his horse has stones in hand. Whilst I doubt Red Jade is a Hunt Ball I would think he will have enough in hand to win this.

P&L for 2012 -6.86

Wet Wednesday - My Thoughts and Selections

With Warwick being off, only the meeting at Hexham survives and I expect the ground to be desperate. However there is one selection for which I expect the ground to pose no problems:-

Hexham 1.40 Dotties Dilema 1PT WIN@2/1 various.(2nd 11/4F beaten by a 125/1 outsider-ran a bit free and didn't fully get home.)
Dotties Dilema ran to free last time when disappointing favourite in a better class race at Newcastle, with the winner Duke of Naven finishing 4th in a Grade 2 hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday. Like today he was carrying a penalty, but today represents a drop in class and he is unbeaten in 2 runs at Hexham and appears to handle soft and heavy ground so the ground today shouldn't pose a problem.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

There is one horse of interest which is  not strong enough to be recommended as an official blog bets.- 
Hexham 3.10 Samson Collonges 1PT WIN@7/4 various.(won well last time and looked progressive, but drop back to 2 1/2 miles a slight concern) 

Quiet Monday - My Thoughts

Wishful Thinking did the business in a fashion yesterday, as I said in the write up Evs looked value in a race where conditions were in his favour and it was a race for him to lose rather than the others win. He tried his hardest to lose it with a terrible mistake at the first, but thankfully survived and his class told.

After being spoilt over the last three days at Cheltenham watching high quality horses competing for valuable prizes, today with the odd exception (1.20 Plumpton Broadbackbob) we return to usual Monday fare of low quality animals running around the "gaff tracks". Whilst there are one or two horses of interest:- 
Leicester 2.10 Court in Session (Interesting jockey booking with AP onboard)
Leicester 2.40 Open Day (Having been dropped so far in the handicap, should be capable of winning off this mark, but was disappointing at Haydock on return).
Plumpton 2.20 Camden (Satisfactory debut in a competitive novice chase at Stratford where we was wrong at the weights. Wish I could have got some of the 8/1 available last night).

Non are strong enough to be recommended as an official blog bets.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Another Shortie

This looks a two horse race on paper and given Wishful Thinking is a class 1 performer getting weight from a handicapper Evs looks extremely good value.

Cheltenham 2.20 Wishful Thinking@Evs B365(1st @8/11F class told despite so poor jumping)

P&L for 2012 -5.44

Paddy Power Gold Cup Day

Small profit yesterday with Dodging Bullets win. Having had numerous looks at the cards today I can find no bets.

P&L for 2012 -5.44

Shorties

One bet since I last had a chance to post which was Time For Spring last Saturday. I nice welcomed winner that I unfortunately didn't have time to post.

Off to Cheltenham today for the 3 day Paddy Power meeting. The card looks competitive and the two horses I will be backing today are class animal in small fields which are reflected in their prices.

P&L for 2012 -5.69

1.15 Cheltenham Fingel Bay 1PT WIN @5/4 various (2nd 5/4F beaten by a much better horse in Dynaste probably will win when stepped up to 3 miles)
2.35 Cheltenham Dodging Bullets 1PT WIN @ 11/10 various(1st 5/4F made all under an enterprising ride by Ruby Walsh)

Sunday

Carlisle 1.30 1PT WIN Vintage Star @9/2 Various (2nd 11/2) Beaten by slightly better fancied stable mate.

Revised Blog Format

As you may have gathered due to lack of updates I am unable to find the time to continue doing the blog in its current format. I am still having the occasional bet and will updated the results for October. Going forward I will just put up the horses I am going to back but without any narrative.

Back With One at Carlisle

Nothing has been of interest over the last 10 days but there is one of interest at Carlisle today.

P&L for 2012 -9.44

Carlisle 5.00 Attaglance  1PT WIN@7/2(Boylesports)

Attaglance was a progressive hurdler for Malcolm Jefferson completing a remarkable double of winning handicaps at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals last season. Today he starts his novice chasing career in a very competitive novice chase. By far the highest rated hurdler in the field and with the stable in excellent form this looks a good opportunity to make a winning start to his new chasing career.

New Month Change of Luck Needed

Last week was one I want to forget with two of my three selections being subject to huge gambles only to fail to deliver what was clearly expected of them. Consequently the results for the month look a bit grim showing a loss of 3.38pts on the month taking the yearly loss to 8.45pts. Clearly there is much work to do to get back in profit but with the better horses now starting to appear there will be some good opportunities over the coming month and a change of luck certainly wouldn’t go amiss! One meeting today at Newton Abbot and there is one selection in a good novice chase.

P&L for 2012 -8.44

Newton Abbot  2.30 Double Ross  1PT WIN@11/10(Sporting Bet) (2nd 5/6f)

Double Ross went into my note book after winning a novice hurdle at Folkestone last November and continued to improve throughout the season finishing up with a very creditable 3^rd in the  Swinton handicap hurdle at Haydock in May. Overall he has a more progressive profile than market rival Jump City who was kept to the smaller tracks last season and has yet to win on any ground worse than good. Available at 13/8 last night Double Ross has already been heavily back today.  Tried to make all and didn't travel or jump that smoothly during the race and did well to only be beaten a neck.

Interesting Novice Chase

A very poor day on Sunday with both selections failing to win.  Khazium ran ok to finish 2^nd but I was expecting more. That was probably his level and  I expect he will be place to win a little juvenile by his trainer. Oscar Prairie was subject of a huge gamble and was never travelling after a mistake at the first. I don’t mind the odd gamble going astray but if I look back at my records for this season the majority of the ones I have been involved in have failed to deliver, hence the reason I am still showing a loss on the year. Nothing has been of interest in the past couple of days but that is different at Perth today where there is an exceptional novice chase for this time of year and I expect it to throw up a number of future winners.

P&L for 2012 -7.44

Perth  3.20  The Tracey Shuffle 0.5PT E/W @ 7/2PP(Fell 2nd 6/4F)

For the time of year this is a really good novice chase with warm favourite Carlito Brigante the class act, being rated 157 at his best over hurdles. He made a winning chase debut back in May, but was very disappointing on his next run and on that basis I am going to take a chance with The Tracey Shuffle who David Pipe sends him all the way from Devon. He was a fairly decent novice hurdler last season winning one and finishing 3^rd in competitive hurdle at Punchestown.  Provided he takes to the fences then I cannot see him being out of the first three and if the favourite puts in another poor performance then the race could be for the taking.2nd gamble of the week to go astray and to rub salt into the wound Aneyeforaneye who was a blog selection last time shows greats battling qualities to put a lifetime best performance in winning.

Back After Break With Two Selections

Back after the 10 day break with two meetings at Plumpton and Uttoxeter and there is a selection at each meeting.

P&L for 2012 -5.44 

Plumpton 2.30 Khazium 1PT WIN@5/2 B365 (2ND 11/4)
Khazium made a satisfactory introduction to hurdles at Stratford 12 days ago when runner-up to Third Half. Brendan Powell does well with his juvenile hurdlers and given this race is no more competitive than the race at Worcester I would expect him to go very close given his hurdling experience. Travelled and jumped well but found one too good again.

Uttoxeter 3.40 Oscar Prairie  0.5PT E/W @13/2 WHill (PU 7/4F)
Oscar Prairie returns to chasing off a very attractive mark in this very competitive handicap chase. Subject of a wind operation during last season, his form improved and he had the pace to win a Kempton bumper for jumpers, when gambled on, before winning a handicap hurdle off 125 at the same track. He runs today off his old handicap chase mark of 116 and I expect him to be primed to go very close given this is trainer Warren Greatrex’s first runner from his new base at the historic Uplands stable. Heavily backed but never travelling or jumping with any fluency.Explanation from BHA website Wayne Hutchinson, the rider of OSCAR PRAIRIE (IRE), which pulled up, reported that the gelding slipped going into the first losing his confidence and never travelled thereafter.

Final Post Before Another Break

A quiet few days on the blog with nothing of real interest lately. Today there is one meeting at Uttoxeter,  the last National Hunt meeting prior to the September break and there is one selection in the novice chase.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Uttoxeter  4.20 Alazan 1PT WIN @ 7/2 Bet365 (2nd 5/6F)

Alazan is a decent hurdler, winning 4 times and although not having won for over a couple of years has been running well recently, both on the flat and over hurdles and makes his debut in this fairly competitive event.  Market rival Alfraamsey in receipt of a weight for age allowance of 12lbs has failed twice to take advantage of his allowance and this looks more competitive. With Richard Johnson onboard in preference to either of the Tim Vaughan runners Alazan should  make a winning start to his chasing career if his jumping is up to scratch.

Nothing Today

Quaddick Lake was a non runner yesterday so there was no bet.  One meeting today at Newton Abbot but there is no selection.

Third Time Lucky - Now a Non Runner

Disappointing effort from Louis Ludwig at Sedgefield on Thursday where he could only manage to finish 4^th and he will find it difficult to win again when he goes up to his new handicap mark. One meeting tomorrow at Fontwell and there is one selection in the handicap hurdle.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Fontwell  4.45  Quaddick Lake 1PT WIN @ 3/1 PP (Non Runner)
Quaddick Lake is once again the selection despite being beaten the last two times he has been put up as the blog selection. There are two main reasons for this, firstly the step up to two and three quarter miles which he looks as though he needs and the fact that the form of his last two runs looks solid which Hi Note who finished 2^nd at Fontwell winning two races on the Flat and Gay Sloane who finished 3^rd at Newton Abbot winning the other day. Although up another 5lbs since his last run I think this is a fairly weak race and the price on offer represent fair value. 

Day Off

No National Hunt racing today so a day off.

P&L for 2012 -4.44 

Nice Start To Month

Nice start to the month yesterday with Scotsbrook  Cloud winning at Hereford to make it three of winning selections in a row over the past couple of weeks and four out of the last five. With limited National Hunt racing at the moment and small fields opportunities are limited and it is a matter of finding value bets in small fields like yesterday. Moving on to today there is one meeting at Sedgefield and again one selection.

P&L for 2012 -3.44

Sedgefield  5.30  Louis Ludwig 1PT WIN @ 9/4 Betfred (4th 5/2F)

Having missed the winning gamble on Louis Ludwig last week I’m still going to put him up here to follow up as he won last week at Stratford in a canter. I had noticed he appeared to be returning to form in his previous race and the booking of Richard Johnson (only ride at the meeting) replacing an amateur jockey looks significant and that connections are expecting the horse to follow up under a penalty.Weak in the market throughout the day. Held up and never really looked threatening.

One For Today

One meeting today at Hereford and we have the first selection of the new month.

P&L for 2012 -5.07

Hereford 4.10 Scotsbrook Cloud  1PT WIN @ 13/8 PP(1ST EvsF)

Only 5 go to post for this novice chase and Scotsbrook Cloud looks the value in receipt of the 12lb from his two market rivals. The winner of five hurdle races he hasn’t looked a natural so far over fences, but comes here on the back of a very good run over hurdles in a valuable handicap at Newton Abbot and on his last run over fences he was sent off joint favourite for the Summer National at Uttoxeter where he was pulled up. This is a big drop in class and if he can get his jumping together he should win in receipt of the weight. Heavily backed.Jumped better but doesn't appear a natural.Won cheekily on the line after showing a good turn of foot from the last.

Quiet Sunday

A quiet start to the month with no selections today at Newton Abbot as the course has been waterlogged for the past few days and although the ground is soft/heavy in places it is unclear how it will ride. Recent selection Quaddick Lake runs again today but with stable having two runners and Nick Schofield choosing to partner hat trick seeking favourite On The Bridge I cannot put him up as a selection.

Yesterday I was planning to put up Quinder Spring as a selection at Market Rasen as I thought he had won very comfortably at Cartmel but when I saw the handicapper had hiked him up 12lbs I thought it was too much and decided against the bet. I was proved correct and despite him being backed in from 3/1 to 5/4F he was unable to defy the increase in weight and was beaten into 2nd.

Despite hitting the frame with all selections last month, which shows my form is good, I only showed just a small profit and I am still showing a year to date loss,(Results page has been updated) but feel confident I will turn it round in the next 4 months particularly when the National Hunt season gets in full swing.

Missed Opportunity

Due to time pressures I've not had much time the last couple of days to give the racecards a full analysis and during my quick glance at yesterdays card I missed Louis Ludwig who was going to be a selection earlier in the month until he became a  non runner. Backed in from 8/1 to 3/1 yesterday he won so easily that he should defy a penalty if turned out again very quickly.

One meeting today at Bangor-on-Dee which is a poor card and there is nothing I fancy strong enough to be a selection.

Nothing Today

Flying Doctor won well yesterday and the manner of his victory suggests to me that if turned out again quickly he could win again if stepped up to three miles or longer, though I doubt he will be much of a price.

One meeting today at Worcester but there is nothing of interest.

One For Today

A quiet few days on the betting front but I am back with one selection at Sedgefield this evening.

P&L for 2012 -7.82

Sedgefield 4.40 Flying Doctor  1PT WIN @ 5/2PP (1ST 11/4F)

Flying Doctor returned to form with a very comfortable win at Cartmel on Thursday evening and bids to follow up under a 7lb penalty, which still leaves him well in based on some of his previous form. With the stables horses running well and the jockey one of the most experienced in the fieldI expect  Flying Doctor to be able to defy the penalty. Responded well to pressure and outstayed runner up after the last.
.

No Selections Today

Two meetings today at Bangor-on-Dee and Huntingdon. Having reviewed the cards there are no selections.

Nothing Today

One meeting at Cartmel today but having reviewed the card there is nothing of interest. With no National Hunt racing tomorrow the blog will next be updated on Monday.

Time To Reflect

With his two market rivals being non runners  Zaplamation won very easily yesterday.

A day off and time to reflect today as there are only 4 jump races in a mixed meeting at Ffos Las and I don’t have a selection.

Since the Blog returned at the beginning of August I have had 7 bets 2 winners, 4 seconds and a third, but despite showing good form with my selections  I am showing a loss of 2.40pts. Looking back I would not have changed any of my selections, but probably have gone each-way the both times I selected Quaddick Lake, as he was running in large fairly competitive handicaps.

P&L for 2012 -7.82 

Total Frustration

Yesterday was a very frustrating day. Turning for home I was counting my winning as Quaddick Lake went into the lead travelling well and having been backed from 5/1 into 2/1 fav looked like he would easily land the gamble. Then another glance at the screen and I saw No Woman No  Cry staying on really well and I knew my fate half way before the last – another bl**dy second!!!!!

There are two meetings today at Ffos Las and Cartmel and the selection runs in the seller at the later track.

P&L for 2012 -8.92

Cartmel 5.20 Zaplamation  1PT WIN @ 2/1 B365(1st EvsF)

Zaplamation comes into this race in good form from the flat. Looking at the conditions of the race and his previous hurdles form he has an outstanding chance of taking this seller. Regular jockey Dougie Costello makes the journey to partner Zapmalation and it is his only ride at the meeting.
With his two market rivals being non runners this was a very easy win for Zaplamation and interestingly he was bought back in by the stable so there could be another opportunity in the coming weeks. With the R4 the bet was settled at 11/10 so only 1.1 profit on the day.

Off The Cold List

After a number of days of frustration when my selections have been running well without winning Red Not Blue finally managed to deliver a winning selection, although it took Tony McCoy to be at his strongest to drive him out to fend of his two market rivals. One meeting tomorrow  at Newton Abbot and there is one selection in the Conditional Jockey’s handicap hurdle.

P&L for 2012 -7.92

Newton Abbot  6.00 Quaddick Lake  1PT WIN @ 5/1 PP(2nd 2/1F)

Quaddick Lake makes a quick reappearance in this conditional Jockey’s handicap hurdle after a very strange ride last Thursday when he appeared to be held up too far off the pace and made an enormous amount of ground up from the home turn to only be beaten just over  three lengths, without the jockey ever picking up his whip. Provided the race doesn’t come too soon for Quaddick Lake and  Matt Griffiths( in my opinion one of the most improved conditionals this year)  is able to lay up with the pace then a reproduction of his run at Fontwell on Thursday should see him go very close. Heavily backed, given every chance going on home turn, caught at the last,  no excuses just a difficult horse to win with.

Significant Jockey Booking

Four bets since the blog returned and its proving to be a frustrating time once again with three seconds and a third. Yesterday Alfraasey was a little disappointing as I thought with the weight allowance he wouldn’t be swept aside as easy as he was by He’s Our Lad, who is clearly on the upgrade. On to today and two meetings at Perth and Worcester and there is one selection at Worcester.

P&L for 2012 -9.42

Worcester 4.50 Red Not Blue   1PT WIN @ 6/4 PP (1st 6/4F)

The booking of Tony McCoy for Red Not Blue looks significant and assuming his fall last time has not dented his confidence he looks a horse with the class to defy his penalty in a field of generally disappointing rivals.  A winner of five handicap hurdles Red Not Blue made a winning chase debut back in June at Hereford jumping really well, before falling at the second last on his next run at Southwell, when upside a good yardstick and eventual winner Shoegazer. The slight drop back in trip today is a plus as all his best form is at distances short of three miles. Jumped ok, led from 6 out but had to be driven out after last to make sure,

Interesting Novice Chase at Stratford

The two bets last week provided a 3^rd and a 2^nd and in both cases I felt the way the races were run didn’t suit my selections and I am certainly not going to write either selection off just yet and they will certainly be considered for their next runs.

One meeting today at Stratford and there is one selection in the novice chase.

P&L for 2012 -8.42

Stratford 2.20 Alfraamsey   1PT WIN @ 15/8 PP (2nd 15/8)

Alfraamsey was an above average early season juvenile hurdler last season winning three races and is clearly in good heart at the moment, having won recently on the flat. Today he switches to novice chasing and being a four year old receives a useful weight for age allowance from his market rival He’s Our Lad. Trainer Sheena West has a good record at Stratford and this looks a nice introductory race for the selection to open his account over fences. Jumped well but was easily held by an improving sort from two out.

One For This Evening

Two meetings today at  Perth and an evening meeting at  Market Rasen and there is one selection in the novice chase this evening

P&L for 2012 -7.42 

Market Rasen 6.40 Aneyeforaneye   1PT WIN @ 9/4 B365 (2nd 11/4)

Aneyeforaneye is a fairly useful mare in her grade and showed an improved level of form when winning on her novice chasing debut at Uttoxeter recently beating good yardstick in the 128+ rated Geneva Geyser. Having watched the race back again a couple of times she actual won by a very easy neck with the jockey only resorting to the whip once on the run in.  If she turns up in the same vain of form this evening I think she should be able to defy her 6lb penalty.
Failed by a length to peg back heavily gambled on favourite after being hampered when race turned into a sprint from 3 out.

National Hunt Racing Returns

National Hunt racing returns tomorrow with two evening  meetings at Fontwell and Stratford. There is little that appeals on the Stratford card however there is one selection at Fontwell.

P&L for 2012 -6.42

Fontwell  7.00 Quaddick Lake  1PT WIN @ 5/1 B365  (3rd 7/2F) 

Quaddick Lake returned to action at Worcester about a month ago after a period point to pointing and won very comfortably. He is up 10lbs tomorrow, but is clearly in good heart and has shown a higher level of ability than this when trained by the Pipe team. The Jeremy Scott team were in good form before the break and I can see Quaddick Lake defying his penalty.
Given a very strange ride by Nick Scholfield as never appeared to be put in the race at any stage but stayed on really well up the home straight to finish a never dangerous 3rd beaten only just over 3 lengths.

No Further Bets Until 16th August

Due to a break in the National Hunt season there will be no further bets until 16th August, when racing commences again.

Selection Now Non Runner

One meeting today at Market Rasen and Louis Ludwig the horse I was planning to select is now a non runner, so there is no bet.

P&L for 2012 -6.42            

No Bet Today

Disappointing run from Prompter yesterday who cruised up to the leader approaching two out and then either failed to go through with his effort or struggled to get the extended two mile trip having pulled very hard early in the race.

One competitive meeting today at Newton Abbot and there is no selection.

P&L for 2012 -6.42 

One For Today

One meeting today at Bangor and there is one selection.

P&L for 2012 -5.42 

Bangor 3.20 1PT WIN Prompter  11/4 Various.(2ND 5/2)

If we ignore the second run of Prompter when a heavily back favourite at Market Rasen the form of his first run at Southwell behind Cape Express and Harvey’s Hope, both easy winners since, looks good enough to take this given he is receiving weight from his market rivals. At the price it is worth the risk that the 2^nd run flop was just a one off.

Nothing Again Today

One meeting today at Stratford. With short priced favourites in the non handicaps and competitive handicaps on which I have no strong opinions there is no bet.

P&L for 2012 -5.42 

Delayed Return

Unfortunately due to the deterioration  in the ground at Perth there is now no selection today.

P&L for 2012 -5.42 

Blogging Will Resume Tomorrow 1st August

Due to unforeseen circumstance I have been unable to blog since the middle of April but plan to start again from tomorrow. Since my last post in April I have only had three bets with two winners showing a 1.05PT profit leaving the YTD figure at a loss of 5.42 PT’s. Given in the past 5 years I have averaged over  40PT’s profit per year I have some challenge over the next few months and hopefully you will join me on  my journey to deliver a reasonable level of profit for the year.

A Significant Jockey Booking

My last selection on the blog was Synchronised in the Grand National who ended up tragically being killed along with According To Pete.  As an avid  follower of National Hunt racing for over 25 years death and serious injury is the sad aspect of the sport that I have had to accept ever since witnessing my favourite horse at the time Sherwood Gunner trained by Owen Brennan breaking his neck at Uttoxeter many moon ago.  For me it is not about the money lost on the bet it is more about the horse being denied the opportunity to fulfil its potential, none more so than earlier this year when Hidden Keel lost his life a Cheltenham, as the trainer had the same views as me that this horse was destined for much greater things. 

Three meetings tomorrow at Ayr, Fontwell and the first of many evening meetings at Southwell with one selection which is I think is a stand out bet based on form and jockey booking.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.92 2012 = -3.46

Ayr 3.25 Vintage Star 1PT WIN @ 7/2 Various Pulled Up (9/4F)

When looking through the card the booking of Barry Geraghty replacing a 7lb claimer for this improving hurdler of Sue’s Smith’s looking very interesting as Geraghty has only ridden once for her in the past 5 years. On the basis of his last three runs Vintage Star is an improving horse and the step back up to 3 miles should be to his advantage, as he was staying on really well at Haydock last time over and inadequate 2  1/2 miles trip in what seemed a much more competitive race than this and the handicapper has been very lenient only raising him an 1lb. Currently available at 7/2 he looks extremely good value. Backed as expected, but didn't jump well and was soon beaten once the tempo increased. Still believe he will make a nice staying novice chaser next season.

Nothing Today

With the ground having changed at Cheltenham there is no selection today, but there will be at least one selection tomorrow, which I will post later today once the prices are available.

Grand National Selection

Disappointing effort from Little Josh yesterday who tried to make all but a number of small jumping mistakes put paid to his chances and he eventually finished 7^th. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Chepstow and there is one selection in the Grand National.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +16.92 2012 = -2.46

Aintree 4.15 Synchronised  1/2PT E/W @ 10/1 William Hill Fell and tragically had to be destroyed

Not a race I would usually have a selection in but Synchronised arrives at Aintree in the form of his life and I expect him to go very close to completing the Gold Cup/Grand National double. I actually back Synchronised antipost for the Welsh National earlier in the season after a promising run at Haydock over hurdles only for him to be withdrawn at the declaration stage and run and win the Lexus chase. His performance in the Gold Cup was all about stamina and being a former winner of the Midlands National the trip and ground should pose no problems.  AP McCoy has mentioned in press reports this week that he is a much classier horse than his previous winner Don’t Push It and the current 10/1 available as I write this appears value as he has been as low as 6/1 in the anti post market and it has been mentioned that he could go off at half his current price when the once a year punter get involved in betting tomorrow.

Back With A Winner

Nice to return with a well backed winner yesterday in Grumeti and with Gullinbursti being a non runner it was a 100% return for the blog. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Sedgefield and there is one selections at Aintree.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +17.92 2012 = -1.46

Aintree 3.40 Little Josh 1/2PT E/W @ 8/1 Bet 365 (paying 5 places)Unplcd (6/1F)

Little Josh caught my eye on his seasonal debut in a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham in January, where he was travelling as well as the winner Midnight Chase at the top of the hill ,but clearly did not stay the extended 3 mile trip. He has subsequently run in two Grade 1 race where he has been out of is depth and today returns to handicap company off a mark 9lb lower than Cheltenham and 1lb lower than when he won the Paddy power in 2010. If he takes to these fences then I think he has a serious chance. Seemed to take to the fences, but didn't jump as well as he could and clearly not as good as he once was when finishing 7th.

Blog is Back

Along time since my last post due to work commitments and with time still limited the write up’s will be much more succinct. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Newton Abbot and there are two selections at Aintree, unfortunately both are likely to go off favourite.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +14.52 2012 = -4.86

Aintree 2.30 Grumeti 1PT WIN @ 4/1 William Hills 1st (11/4F)Rule 4

I expect Grumeti to come out on top of those who he opposed in the Triumph hurdle as that race was run at a crawl and provided the race is run at a good pace I expect this flat track to play to his strengths. A very game performance to win well in the end after being hampered by the sad sight of Gottany Os suffering a fatal injury.

Aintree 5.35 Gullinburtsi 1/2PT E/W @9/2 Bet365 paying 5 places. Non Runner

A very competitive 3 mile handicap hurdle in which Gullinbursti has some very strong form in novice hurdles before making a highly encouraging handicap debut at Newbury, beaten a neck by the unbeaten Knock a Hand. Up 5lb for that effort he still looks well weighted and I expect further improvement on this softer ground.

Poor Poor Poor

I have just updated the performance for March which shows another losing month and a total loss for the year of -4.86pts. This is a very poor effort compared to my performance over the past few years. However, my circumstances have changed significantly this year with the demands of my job significantly impacting on the amount of time I have been able to dedicate to form study, resulting in hardly any bets. With the pressures at work hopefully easing off now and Aintree on the horizon I will hopefully be able to find more time to blog over the coming weeks and at least get the year back into profit.

Bit Better Racing Today

Saturday 24^th March

Apologies for last Saturday’s selection who I was extremely bullish about, but Maringo Bay ran no sort of race at all and I am not aware of a reason for his poor performance.  I still believe there is a big handicap to be won by the horse but I think it will be next season now. The racing has been dire this week and nothing has interested me and until today where I will be backing one horse who has appeared on the blog before.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +15.52 2012 = -3.86

Stratford 2.00 Loose Chips 1PT WIN 3/1 @Bet 365

Loose Chip was a winning selection earlier in the season at Towcester and was disappointing just over a month ago at Ffos Las, when after travelling well behind the leaders turning in he stopped very quickly down the home straight as was almost pulled up. At the time it looked to me that something was amiss and it transpired that there was coughing in the Charlie Longsdon yard at the time. Assuming the horse has now recovered I feel this race is a good opportunity for him to get back to winning ways given the way he won a Towcester and that fact the trainer was aiming him for a big race at Sandown prior to his last run. 

Back With A Big One

Apologies for the lack of blog postings over the past few weeks, but unfortunately I have been really business at work and working away has resulted in racing and the blog having to take a back seat. With Cheltenham having passed by in a haze of business meeting I am somewhat refreshed coming back to the blog with a big one (3 times my normal stake) in the hope of getting the winners flowing again.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +18.52 2012 = -0.86

Uttoxeter 3.20 Maringo Bay 1 and 1/2PT E/W @10/1 various PU 8/1 

I have selected Maringo Bay on his last two runs and though beaten into second on both occasions I have not been too disappointed as I have had to accept he has beaten by better horses, but tomorrow is different in that he makes is handicap debut in what I think is a below average Midlands National and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t win. There are many factors in his favour:-

1.   The booking of Noel Fehily. Trainer Charlie Mann mentioned in an interview when Noel took up the post of stable jockey to Emma Lavelle earlier this year that Noel would “still ride the good ones for him”

2.   Off a rating of 130 and a weight of 10-7 in this he look very attractively handicapped in comparison to the opposition

3.   His form is rock solid with both Alfie Spinner and Mics Delight who have beaten him in his last two runs running well at Cheltenham and when he won his novice hurdle last season at Ffos Las last season he beat Teaforthree who won the 4 miler at Cheltenham earlier in the week and Invictus who was one of the favourites foir the RSA chase before picking up an injury.

My only slight doubt is the ground which will be much quicker than he has run on previously and the fact he looks as though he has been crying out for a trip this is a big step up in distance from the three miles and less he has been running over so far this season, although he did hold an entry in the 4 miler at the festival, so hence the each way rather than straight win. 
Terrible performance. Never jumped with any fluency and once tempo increased there was no response and he was soon beat and pulled up.

Work Commitments Getting In The Way!!!

Due to work commitments I am unable to update the blog at the moment or even find time to study the form and have a bet. 

February's Elusive Winner?

Back from a short break and after what has been a disastrous month for the blog. I hope to make the last selection a winning one. There are three meetings today at Bangor-On-Dee, Folkestone and Southwell with a selection running in the first at Southwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +19.52 2012 = +0.14

Southwell 2.00 Milgan Bay 1PT WIN @5/4 William Hill

Milgan Bay comes into this four runner handicap with the best form on offer with his third at Kempton on Boxing Day looking much stronger than Ring Bo Ree, given that the winner subsequently landed a Grade 2 novice chase and the runner-up won in a big-field handicap at Cheltenham. Ring Bo Ree has solid claims after two decent performances over C&D this year but I doubt is in the class of Milgan Bay. The trainer reported on his blog that Milgan Bay was in serious form and was hard to pull up after jumping his last set of 3 fences, prior to his run in a jumpers bumper at Kempton last time out when he finished third to subsequent winner Oscar Prairie.

Selection At Taunton

Loose Chip was very disappointing on Sunday. Cruising 3 out he stopped very quickly and although there was a doubt about the getting the trip I think there was probably another problem. No excuses for the other selection Maringo Bay who put to a good performance but was beaten by a classier horse. He remains of interest to me probably in staying handicaps later in the season although he does hold an entry in the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Two meetings today at Wetherby and Taunton and there is one selection at Taunton.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +20.52 2012 = +1.14 Unplcd(8/1)

Taunton 2.00 Giordano Bruno 1/2PT E/W @7/1 Various

Giordano Bruno made an interesting debut at Taunton 6 weeks ago after almost 3 years off the course. Jumped out in front he caught my eye as he travelled smoothly throughout the race until lack of peak fitness caught up with him turning for home where he was passed by Darlan and Jump City. Once headed Richard Johnson gave him an easy time. I got the impression from this run that there is much more to come and although today is no easy task with natural progression I would not expect him to be out of the first three, although odds on favourite Urbain De Sivola may be a tough nut to crack I have a doubt that this tight track may not suit him. Held up in last never put in the race at any stage, clearly looking to get a handicap mark for later in the season? Reported finished lame.