Typical

James Ewart had four runners yesterday and my selection Vosges was the only one not to win. Although beaten I am not too disappointed, as it is something you have to accept in this game and at the prices Vosges was the only horse I wanted back at. As expected there was good support for him in the market and he jumped well but was unable to peg back the front running Carrietau who was given a fantastic ride by Henry Brooke a conditional I have a lot of time for. So one point dropped on the day, but I would expect to get that back from Vosges later in the season. A fantastic days racing again today with previous winning blog selections (Great Endeavour, Dream Function) running at Newbury, but at the prices available they are a bit too short to be considered in these competitive events. In additions there are good meetings at Newcastle, Bangor-on-Dee and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Towcester 2.45 Saint Denis 1/2PT E/W 14/1 various

Like last Saturday this is a speculative selection (I hope it runs better than last weeks)but at the price on offer I think it is worth a bet. Saint Denis caught my eye last season running well in a number of novice hurdles without getting competitive and makes his handicap debut here off a rating of just 97. Although the stable are not in great form the booking of Paddy Brennan looks significant together with the step up to 3 miles for the first time and with the exception of the warm favourite Valid Point the other runners look fully exposed. 

One For Today

Three meetings today at Doncaster, Newbury and Musselburgh and it’s off to Scotland we go for the selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42

Musselburgh 2.25 Vosges  1PT WIN @7/2 Various 2nd (9/4)

Vosges was a selection earlier in the season when running disappointingly at Kelso in a two mile six furlong novice handicap chase in which the 1^st and 4^th have both won since.  Given the reports that had been coming out from the yard much more was expected and immediate reaction from the trainer was that the horse didn’t stay and a drop back in trip would suit. Today he runs at the minimum trip, on a course he won twice at last season. With race conditions allowing him to get 4 year olds a weight allowance and with the trainer hitting form I think the current price on offer represents excellent value. Jumped ok was always in 2nd place unable to catch all the way winner who got an easy lead.

Another Quiet Day

Prosecco was heavily backed yesterday from an advised price of 11/2 into 15/8F, but to my eyes appeared to be struggling to lay up with the pace from the start and finally dropping away from the third last and ending up finishing 5th. On that evidence he needs further and probably softer ground so I’ll be keeping him on my radar. Three meetings today at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter but there is nothing that stand out as a betting opportunity for me today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42

Back With A Selection For Tomorrow

No selection for the past couple of days but with two meetings tomorrow at Fontwell and Wetherby and there is one selection at Wetherby.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Wetherby 2.00 Prosecco 1PT WIN @11/2 Ladbrokes 5th (15/8F)

At the price available Prosecco is a fairly confident choice in a fairly competitive 2 mile handicap chase. He caught my eye last season winning a handicap chase in off a 5lb lower mark at Ayr and was then stepped up in trip for his last two runs and didn’t run badly in either and on his last run was third to The Panama Kid who won his last race off a 20lb higher mark. With the stable in cracking form, the horses running well and the trainer stating the horses best trip is over two miles on soft ground tomorrow looks a good opportunity.

Keeping The Winnings Safe

No selection again today with two poor low class cards at Lingfield and Sedgefield and as I've mentioned before I am not trying to find a selection just for the sake of it.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Quiet Day and a Few Thoughts

Renard again drifted in the market from the advised price but was too good for his rivals under a very positive Aidan Coleman ride to give another 3pts profit for the blog. Historically October and November tend to be my most profitable months of the season and this year is no exception. I am hoping by doing the blog it will add further discipline when I inevitably hit a bad run and stop me trying to “gamble” my way out of it, which I have tended to do in the past, thus eroding my profits. I remember a few years ago having an excellent November and then having 18 losing bets of the trot in a two week period in December, hopefully by doing the blog this won’t happen again. Three meetings today at Ffos Las, Kempton and Ludlow and having reviewed the cards there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Some Thoughts On Yesterday and a Selection For Today

What a fantastic days racing yesterday and all credit to Paul Nichols and his team for having Kauto Star spot on from what was probably his “Gold Cup” and to Ruby Walsh for giving him the perfect ride.  For me what became clear from the race is if Kauto has reached his peak and is supposedly on the downgrade then the young pretenders (Time For Rupert, Wierd Al and Diamond Harry) have much improvement to make if they are going to be serious challengers to Long Run come March. I mentioned yesterday that my selection Bishophill Jack was speculative and after being backed from 7’s into 4’s I can honestly say that is the worst performance by a selection I have put on my blog since I started in August. Never travelling or jumping with any fluency he was tailed off and pulled up with a circuit to go. Surprisingly as there is nothing reported on the BHA Steward Room “why they ran badly” section it appears the Ascot stewards didn’t bother to ask, although I’m sure there will be something later today on Kim Baileys Blog. Two meetings today at Exeter and Towcester and again one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Exeter 2.30 Renard 1PT WIN@5/2 Boylesports 1st (3/1)

Renard was a selection at Lingfield when he won last time and although up 8lbs for that win I still think he maybe ahead of the handicapper. He jumped well and won with a bit in hand last time and this stiff Exeter track should be ideal. The main danger from the betting appears to be the Phillip Hobbs trained Robin De Creuse who switch to fences is significant in that it is straight into a handicap, but he was a horse I was following last season who has a very disappointing profile and I think he will need further than this trip. So Renard is a fairly confident selection to complete the hat-trick. Jumped well, quickened home turn to get first run, comfortably competes the hat-trick.