When Your Luck Is Out

No luck again yesterday with Rowan Tiger making a bad mistake at the third last when in front which ultimately cost him third place on the run in. However this was an above average novice hurdle with the winner Grumeti  being talked about as a Triumph hurdle candidate, so Rowan Tiger remains one to follow particularly if dropped into a handicap off his current mark. Three meetings today at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and there is one selection at Warwick in an attempted to round off the year with a winning selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.42

Wawick  2.20 Tafika 1/2PT E/W @8/1B365 Fell (8/1)

A very competitive handicap chase but the one which caught my eye is Tafika who jumped exceptionally well on his season debut at Bangor earlier this month, before lack of peak fitness told and Denis O’Regan accepted defeat before two out allowing him to coast home in his own time. The trainer states on his website that he had a wind operation in the spring and may be a very well-handicapped horse. Given that if Bangor was a pipe opener then given the normal improvement between runs he should go very close today . As I have wrote this the 9/1 that was available has disappeared and 8/1 is now the best available price. Unbelievable Denis O'Regan fails to arrive from Newbury on time and he falls at the first. 

Selection For Taunton

No selection yesterday and with two meetings today at Haydock and Taunton and there is one selection at Taunton. I live about 5 miles from Haydock and am actually surprised the meeting is going ahead given all it has done for the last 48hrs is rain heavily so I would expect the ground to be very testing.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

Taunton  2.20 Rowan Tiger 1/2PT E/W @9/2Various

Rowan Tiger won very easily at Bangor last time and I would expect him to go close to defying  the penalty in this fairly competitive novice hurdle considering Tony McCoy has chosen to ride him again. However this will be no easy task as he was over 20lbs inferior on the flat to favourite Ted Spread, but like Bangor I expect him to go out and make all and put pressure on the others jumping in the later stages of the race. If he is unable to defy the penalty I cannot see him finishing outside the first three so hence at the price this is really a bet to nothing.

Poor Effort – Confidence Restore

Sole Survivor put in a very poor effort yesterday. I was never comfortable with the way he was travelling and although he was in second turning for home he drop away very quickly approaching the 2^nd last. He is better than that run and he clearly has some kind of problem.

So far December has been a wretched month for the Blog with just one winner from ten selections and in an attempt to restore some confidence last night I reviewed my stats below for the year which are showing a healthy 51PT profit and a 19% return on investment.

	Monthly	Cum
	Points	Points
Jan	22.38	22.38
Feb	19.30	41.68
Mar	-14.42	27.26
Apl	-5.66	21.60
May	-5.41	16.19
June	18.50	34.69
July	-6.50	28.19
Aug	2.83	31.02
Sept	7.50	38.52
Oct	1.91	40.43
Nov	18.75	59.18
Dec	-7.60	51.58

Having discussed with a non gambling friend last night he was very impressed that firstly I made money from backing horses and secondly that my returns are well in excess of what could be earned investing in the financial markets. Both these comments and a few beers help restore some confidence that I do know what I’m doing and from experience I know there will be good and bad runs and in truth I am doing nothing differently now in my selection approach to what I was doing early in the year or when I was having a good run in November. It is a tried and tested approach that has stood me in good stead for a number of years so I can see no reason to change it. The only thing I am now doing differently is having less bets as a result of the Blog which has added discipline to my betting and is stopping me betting to chase my losses. Having reviewed my selections over the past month I feel positive that I will soon blog a winner again as the majority of my selections are being placed without winning.

Two cards today at Doncaster and Kelso and after reviewing the cards there is nothing which stands out as a betting opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

Another Second

With Crackentorp being a non runner yesterdays only selection Maringo Bay was given a fine ride by Noel Fehily delaying his final challenge till approaching the last, but having jumped upside favourite Alfie Spinner he was clearly not as good as I thought and the favourite always had him held on the way to the line. So another second to add to the pretty dismal December statistics. Two meetings today at Leicester and Catterick and I have one selection where I am putting experience before potential with a big priced selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +23.42

Leicester 2.00 Sole Survivor 1/2PT E/W@12/1 Various

Sole Survivor was a wining selection for the blog on his seasonal debut at Warwick in November showing real battling qualities to get up on the line after looking beaten leaving the back straight. My first thoughts after that run was that he would need a step up to 2 ½ miles which he gets today.  Subsequent to his winning run I believe he ran to an improved level at Sandown last time and was bang there at the second last before making a dreadful mistake after which he was heavily eased to come home in his own time. That was a high class novice hurdle with Tetlami who was first and Knights Pass (third) both winning at  Kempton this week. Today he takes on horses of potential from the King, Henderson, Pipe and Lavelle yards but at the price I am happy to put experience before potential.

Short Headed Again

For the second time this month one of my selections was caught on the line. This time I saw a healthly 3.5 PT profit from Shoreacres turned into a 1PT loss as he was headed on the line after being given a fantastic ride by Will Kennedy. I am a firm believer in the law of averages and over a year I would expect these short heads to even themselves out so hopefully my luck will turn soon. Three meetings today at Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +24.42

Chepstow 12.30 Maringo Bay 1PT WIN@7/2 Various

Maringo Bay is a horse who caught my eye last season in his first novice chase at Fakenham when the 20/1 outsider of three was only beaten a length and a half by Mamlook and Tullymore Dew. He then reverted back to hurdles and was sent off at an amazing 33/1 next time out and won comfortably in a very strong race which has thrown up numerous novice chase winners this season. I doubt Plumpton was an ideal course for his seasonal debut where he finished third over 2 ½ miles but there is a £50k bonus for certain races at Plumpton if the winner goes on to win at the Cheltenham festival and I take this as the reason he ran there, giving me the impression the stable think he is a Cheltenham horse, so today’s three miles at Chepstow on a galloping track in heavy ground looks an ideally opportunity to get off the mark over fences.

Wetherby 12.35 Crackentorp 1PT WIN@2/1 Various

Crackentorp caught my eye earlier in the season when comfortably accounting for the highly regarded Hawk Mountain in a novice hurdle at Market Rasen. His main market rival here is Red Jade who had a comfortable winning debut at Southwell, but although there is little between them on flat ratings I feel the hurdles form of Crackentorp is better than that of Red Jade and at the prices I am happy to support him as I cannot see any of the other runners being up to the class of these two horses.

Back With A Selection

Festive Greetings to all my readers and I hope you all had a good one yesterday. I’m back with the blog after a short break due to time commitments and poor form and in this period I have had a further 7 bets with one winner, three seconds, two fours and one unplaced showing a net loss of -0.6PTS.(Will not be recorded on the blog). So in summary my selections are still running well, but for whatever reason not visting the winners enclosure as frequently as I’d like, so lets hope I can start putting this right from today. Eight meetings today and after my initial glance at the cards 12 horses interested me, but after further analysis I have narrowed it down to just one selections

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +25.42

Wincanton 1.40 Shoreacres 1PT WIN@3/1 Various

Shoreacres was a selection earlier in the season when a non runner at Aintree over fences and two subsequent runs over fences failed to see him sparkle, but a return to hurdles at Ascot and positive tactics last time out almost saw him spring a surprises at 33/1, just being caught after the last by the heavily backed David Pipe trained Our Father with the third Shuli Royale 14 lengths back in 3^rd. I think the form is much stronger than the favourite who was a fortunate winner at Cheltenham last time when the leader fell at the last. At the price in this small field he represents good value.