Grand National Selection

Disappointing effort from Little Josh yesterday who tried to make all but a number of small jumping mistakes put paid to his chances and he eventually finished 7^th. There are two National Hunt meetings today at Aintree and Chepstow and there is one selection in the Grand National.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 = +16.92 2012 = -2.46

Aintree 4.15 Synchronised  1/2PT E/W @ 10/1 William Hill Fell and tragically had to be destroyed

Not a race I would usually have a selection in but Synchronised arrives at Aintree in the form of his life and I expect him to go very close to completing the Gold Cup/Grand National double. I actually back Synchronised antipost for the Welsh National earlier in the season after a promising run at Haydock over hurdles only for him to be withdrawn at the declaration stage and run and win the Lexus chase. His performance in the Gold Cup was all about stamina and being a former winner of the Midlands National the trip and ground should pose no problems.  AP McCoy has mentioned in press reports this week that he is a much classier horse than his previous winner Don’t Push It and the current 10/1 available as I write this appears value as he has been as low as 6/1 in the anti post market and it has been mentioned that he could go off at half his current price when the once a year punter get involved in betting tomorrow.

Short Headed Again

For the second time this month one of my selections was caught on the line. This time I saw a healthly 3.5 PT profit from Shoreacres turned into a 1PT loss as he was headed on the line after being given a fantastic ride by Will Kennedy. I am a firm believer in the law of averages and over a year I would expect these short heads to even themselves out so hopefully my luck will turn soon. Three meetings today at Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +24.42

Chepstow 12.30 Maringo Bay 1PT WIN@7/2 Various

Maringo Bay is a horse who caught my eye last season in his first novice chase at Fakenham when the 20/1 outsider of three was only beaten a length and a half by Mamlook and Tullymore Dew. He then reverted back to hurdles and was sent off at an amazing 33/1 next time out and won comfortably in a very strong race which has thrown up numerous novice chase winners this season. I doubt Plumpton was an ideal course for his seasonal debut where he finished third over 2 ½ miles but there is a £50k bonus for certain races at Plumpton if the winner goes on to win at the Cheltenham festival and I take this as the reason he ran there, giving me the impression the stable think he is a Cheltenham horse, so today’s three miles at Chepstow on a galloping track in heavy ground looks an ideally opportunity to get off the mark over fences.

Wetherby 12.35 Crackentorp 1PT WIN@2/1 Various

Crackentorp caught my eye earlier in the season when comfortably accounting for the highly regarded Hawk Mountain in a novice hurdle at Market Rasen. His main market rival here is Red Jade who had a comfortable winning debut at Southwell, but although there is little between them on flat ratings I feel the hurdles form of Crackentorp is better than that of Red Jade and at the prices I am happy to support him as I cannot see any of the other runners being up to the class of these two horses.

Short Headed

The small margins of success and failure in gambling was clearly highlighted yesterday when a profit of 2.5pts was turned into a 1pt loss in the last stride as the selection Appleaday, who has made most was short headed on the line. That’s history now and with a great days racing with four competitive cards at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby. There was one potential selection at the 12.55 at Sandown in Knight Pass who is very highly thought of but I was expecting to see some odds against but as that is not the case then there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42