Change of Luck at Last

Loose Chips made all yesterday and jumped superbly for a fairly comfortable victory, and was a welcomed winner of the blog. Having experienced a significant amount of bad luck last week it was nice for once to see the selection backed and things go to plan in the race. Moving on to today the meeting at Lingfield has survived but the ground will be desperate and there is nothing that appeals. With  tomorrows meetings already abandoned  my next update will be on Thursday at the earliest.

P&L for 2012 -6.56

Quiet Monday - My Thoughts

Wishful Thinking did the business in a fashion yesterday, as I said in the write up Evs looked value in a race where conditions were in his favour and it was a race for him to lose rather than the others win. He tried his hardest to lose it with a terrible mistake at the first, but thankfully survived and his class told.

After being spoilt over the last three days at Cheltenham watching high quality horses competing for valuable prizes, today with the odd exception (1.20 Plumpton Broadbackbob) we return to usual Monday fare of low quality animals running around the "gaff tracks". Whilst there are one or two horses of interest:- 
Leicester 2.10 Court in Session (Interesting jockey booking with AP onboard)
Leicester 2.40 Open Day (Having been dropped so far in the handicap, should be capable of winning off this mark, but was disappointing at Haydock on return).
Plumpton 2.20 Camden (Satisfactory debut in a competitive novice chase at Stratford where we was wrong at the weights. Wish I could have got some of the 8/1 available last night).

Non are strong enough to be recommended as an official blog bets.

P&L for 2012 -4.44

Paddy Power Gold Cup Day

Small profit yesterday with Dodging Bullets win. Having had numerous looks at the cards today I can find no bets.

P&L for 2012 -5.44

Shorties

One bet since I last had a chance to post which was Time For Spring last Saturday. I nice welcomed winner that I unfortunately didn't have time to post.

Off to Cheltenham today for the 3 day Paddy Power meeting. The card looks competitive and the two horses I will be backing today are class animal in small fields which are reflected in their prices.

P&L for 2012 -5.69

1.15 Cheltenham Fingel Bay 1PT WIN @5/4 various (2nd 5/4F beaten by a much better horse in Dynaste probably will win when stepped up to 3 miles)
2.35 Cheltenham Dodging Bullets 1PT WIN @ 11/10 various(1st 5/4F made all under an enterprising ride by Ruby Walsh)

Nice Start To Month

Nice start to the month yesterday with Scotsbrook  Cloud winning at Hereford to make it three of winning selections in a row over the past couple of weeks and four out of the last five. With limited National Hunt racing at the moment and small fields opportunities are limited and it is a matter of finding value bets in small fields like yesterday. Moving on to today there is one meeting at Sedgefield and again one selection.

P&L for 2012 -3.44

Sedgefield  5.30  Louis Ludwig 1PT WIN @ 9/4 Betfred (4th 5/2F)

Having missed the winning gamble on Louis Ludwig last week I’m still going to put him up here to follow up as he won last week at Stratford in a canter. I had noticed he appeared to be returning to form in his previous race and the booking of Richard Johnson (only ride at the meeting) replacing an amateur jockey looks significant and that connections are expecting the horse to follow up under a penalty.Weak in the market throughout the day. Held up and never really looked threatening.

Missed Opportunity

Due to time pressures I've not had much time the last couple of days to give the racecards a full analysis and during my quick glance at yesterdays card I missed Louis Ludwig who was going to be a selection earlier in the month until he became a  non runner. Backed in from 8/1 to 3/1 yesterday he won so easily that he should defy a penalty if turned out again very quickly.

One meeting today at Bangor-on-Dee which is a poor card and there is nothing I fancy strong enough to be a selection.

Nothing Today

Flying Doctor won well yesterday and the manner of his victory suggests to me that if turned out again quickly he could win again if stepped up to three miles or longer, though I doubt he will be much of a price.

One meeting today at Worcester but there is nothing of interest.

One For Today

A quiet few days on the betting front but I am back with one selection at Sedgefield this evening.

P&L for 2012 -7.82

Sedgefield 4.40 Flying Doctor  1PT WIN @ 5/2PP (1ST 11/4F)

Flying Doctor returned to form with a very comfortable win at Cartmel on Thursday evening and bids to follow up under a 7lb penalty, which still leaves him well in based on some of his previous form. With the stables horses running well and the jockey one of the most experienced in the fieldI expect  Flying Doctor to be able to defy the penalty. Responded well to pressure and outstayed runner up after the last.
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Off The Cold List

After a number of days of frustration when my selections have been running well without winning Red Not Blue finally managed to deliver a winning selection, although it took Tony McCoy to be at his strongest to drive him out to fend of his two market rivals. One meeting tomorrow  at Newton Abbot and there is one selection in the Conditional Jockey’s handicap hurdle.

P&L for 2012 -7.92

Newton Abbot  6.00 Quaddick Lake  1PT WIN @ 5/1 PP(2nd 2/1F)

Quaddick Lake makes a quick reappearance in this conditional Jockey’s handicap hurdle after a very strange ride last Thursday when he appeared to be held up too far off the pace and made an enormous amount of ground up from the home turn to only be beaten just over  three lengths, without the jockey ever picking up his whip. Provided the race doesn’t come too soon for Quaddick Lake and  Matt Griffiths( in my opinion one of the most improved conditionals this year)  is able to lay up with the pace then a reproduction of his run at Fontwell on Thursday should see him go very close. Heavily backed, given every chance going on home turn, caught at the last,  no excuses just a difficult horse to win with.

January 2012 Results

I have updated the January results on a new page in the blog. The main purpose of the blog is to add further discipline to my betting and in summary I only had 13 bets in January with 4 winners and after a poor start to the year things picked up second half of the month to leave me with a profit of 5.70pts and a return on investment of 42%.

Losing Streak Broken

It was nice to break the losing run yesterday with Invictus travelling and jumping well for a comfortable win at Plumpton after a fantastic piece of race riding by Choc Thornton spotting and going for a gap on the inside of the hanging leader on the home turn. My second selection Annas Arch drifted badly in the market and always looked to be struggling on the soft ground and eventually finished 4^th. So a 1PT profit on the day. Two meetings today at Fontwell and Sedgefield. I was interested in Brackloon High who makes his novice chase debut in the 1.10 at Fontwell after an eye catching run over hurdles at Cheltenham last time, but not at the price available given I read somewhere the Noel Chance stable has not had a winner for over a year.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Quiet Day and a Few Thoughts

Renard again drifted in the market from the advised price but was too good for his rivals under a very positive Aidan Coleman ride to give another 3pts profit for the blog. Historically October and November tend to be my most profitable months of the season and this year is no exception. I am hoping by doing the blog it will add further discipline when I inevitably hit a bad run and stop me trying to “gamble” my way out of it, which I have tended to do in the past, thus eroding my profits. I remember a few years ago having an excellent November and then having 18 losing bets of the trot in a two week period in December, hopefully by doing the blog this won’t happen again. Three meetings today at Ffos Las, Kempton and Ludlow and having reviewed the cards there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Fantastic Days Racing

The race Mr Moonshine won yesterday panned out as expected as he made all jumping fluently and having his rivals in trouble from three out for a comfortable win and an additional 2.75PTS for the blog. Fantastic days racing today with three meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon with one selection at Ascot.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Ascot  1.00 Bishophill Jack 1PT WIN@7/1 various. PU (4/1)

Speculative selection today with a horse that is well thought of by the yard. He has gambled on for this first run in a handicap hurdle at Huntingdon last season but ran appallingly after which his train mentioned he was a big immature baby who would be better over fences this season. After his last run the trainer commented that “Bishophill Jack jumped and ran well but showed that he needs further. Today he steps up to 3 miles and off bottom weight with Jason Maguire on board he has to be given a chance at the price available.Well backed but another appalling run and never got into any rhythm before being pulled up. One to avoid for me from now on.

Hindsight and The Benefit of Twitter

Moonlight Drive travelled and jumped well yesterday in finishing 2^nd but I wish I could have withdrawn the Blog selection after reading the following tweet from Sean Quinn trainers son “We like Moonlight Drive but its his 1st spin over fences + he will definitely come on for the run” and after the race tweeted “MD...well don't say you weren't told. Nice horse though + we're happy enough” .  So consider yesterday a temporary loan to the bookmakers that we will get back with interest at a later stage of the season, as he remains a horse with a lot of potential and is one I will keep on my side. Two meetings today at Ascot and Haydock and there is one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +27.67

Haydock 1.35 Mr Moonshine 1PT WIN @11/4 Paddy Power 1st (11/4)

I was at Carlisle a few weeks ago when Mr Moonshine comfortably beat my selection that day Hidden Keel and it was clearly no fluke. He travelled and jumped well and had my selection in trouble with over a circuit to go. Today is no easy task, as last time he was receiving weight from the field but today he has to give 8lb to his three very decent rivals, however I expect him to attempt to go out and try to make all and if he can get into a nice rhythm like at Carlisle I can see his putting pressure on his rivals jumping. As well as the weight concession there is an additional risk that after he put up a very impressive performance at Huntingdon last season he ran very flat in his following race. However the Sue Smith stable remain in good form and at the price available with the experience jumping fences I think he is a worthwhile bet. Made all jumped well, another comfortable winner

Another Winner Yesterday

Sole Survivor proved another profitable day for the blog, surprisingly drifting out to a SP of 12/1 having been advised at 10/1 and being backed during the morning to as low as 6/1. Always in the front rank he jumped ok early on, but started making mistakes from about 4 out and I must admit I thought he would drop away and finish mid field and be better for the run, but to his credit he showed great courage to battle back from the home turn and get up on the line. He is clearly a stayer and a step up in trip will suit next time out. So another 7.2PTs profit on the day.Three meetings tomorrow at Hereford, Market Rasen and Wincacton and there is one selection at Market  Rasen.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.67

Market Rasen 1.50 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @11/8 B365

This is a fairly competitive novice chase and I was immediately attracted to the booking of the champ AP McCoy for trainer John Quinn in the absence of suspended stable jockey Dougie Costello. Having gone into the form of the horse and visited the trainers website I can now understand why the jockey booking. John Quinn comments “this lad surprised me last season. I fell in love with him when I saw him at the Brightwells point-to-point to sale last year. However, I bought with a view to him being a long term project and he probably still is. Yet the speed he shows at home for a horse with his breeding is amazing. He won his novice hurdle at Wetherby from a well regarded horse in Trustan Times. We then ran him in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and it was a case of asking too much from him too soon. He has strengthened nicely through the summer months and he will now go novice chasing. Big horse, big future”.  Given the jockey booking I expect a big run today.

Great To Be Back To Winning Ways

Nice to bounce back after Friday’s disappointment with an excellent result in the Paddy Power with Great Endeavour delivering a highly impressive performance to win at an SP of 8/1. I hope most of you who have backed him managed to get the 12/1 which was available when I posted the blog for a 7.5pt profit on the day. If you didn’t get the 12/1 consider opening accounts with all major bookmakers (links available on the right hand side of the blog). There are two meetings tomorrow at Cheltenham and Fonwell and the selection comes at Fontwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.47

Fontwell 12.55 It’s A Classic 1PT WIN  @6/1 Bet365 2nd (8/1)

I don’t usually back horses with letters in their form but this is such a bad race that I really fancy It’s A Classic on the price on offer even though in his last three runs he has been brought down, pulled up and refused. This hurdle race over 3 miles and 3 furlongs on soft ground is going to be a real stamina test and even though It’s A Classic refused last time out at Carlisle he caught my eye as he jumped and travelled well and was still in contention at the 2^nd last in a competitive 3 mile handicap chase. Renard a winner for the blog earlier this week also refused in this race. Tomorrow he reverts to hurdles for the first time in 5 years off a mark 9lb lower than what he ran off at Carlisle last time. Although he is 10 he has only had 26 starts and his form is far better than anything else in the race with 4 wins 4 seconds and 4 thirds, something I doubt any of his rivals will ever achieve. The stable is in reasonable form particularly on the flat and as this is such a bad race at 6/1 he is worth taking a chance with.

Cheltenham For The Next Three Days

Off to Cheltenham today for the three day Paddy Power meeting so having analysed the Cheltenham and Newcastle cards in some detail I have come up with no less than four selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.97

Newcastle 12.30 Zaru 1/2PT E/W@6/1 B365 5th(9/1)

Overall  Zaru has a disappointing profile having failed to win a race so far, but I am the price I am prepared to give him one last chance. A hard puller that has been difficult to settle in previous races he showed similar traits at Kelso first time out this season, but was still in with a chance at the 2^nd last when he fell. The winner of that race Simply Ned defied a penalty in very easy fashion at Kelso earlier this week.  This is no better than the race at Kelso so assuming Brian Hughes can get him to settle then there is a good chance he will be able to fulfil the promise he showed in bumpers last season.

Cheltenham 1.10 Time For Spring 1/2PT E/W@6/1 Various 5th(10/3F)

A winner of his only novice chase Time For Spring looks well handicapped off a mark of 125 and the jockey booking of Sam Waley-Cohen looks significant. Although I initially was not overly impressed with his win at Carlisle the form of the races has worked out well with the 2^nd and 3^rd winning next time out and his trainer commented after the race that he will improve again when he steps up to 3 miles which he does for the first time tomorrow.

Cheltenham 2.55 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN@7/2 Boylesports 2nd (9/2)

I was very impressed with the debut of Prospect Wells at Chepstow just over two weeks ago in particular the ease with which he scythed through the field from the 3^rd last. He was a decent stayer on the flat  and the extra test of Cheltenham will play to his strengths together with the weight he receives from the favourite Steps To Freedom.

Cheltenham 4.05 Cue Card 1PT WIN @13/8 William Hill UR (7/4)

Hill

This race is worth the admission fee alone as Cue Card takes on Grand Crus in best novice chase of the season so far. Cue Card really impressed me at this meeting last season and was very impressed with his seasonal debut at Chepstow  with the second and third winning since. I expect Grand Crus to develop into one of the top staying novices this season, but over this trip, with a fitness advantage and his stable bang in form it has to be Cue Card for me.

The Good Run Continues

The good run continues with another winning selection yesterday with Dream Function winning the last at Exeter in very impressive fashion having been backed in from 4/1 to a starting price of 2/1 and in the process  overturing the highly regarded Swincombe Flame. Two meetings today at Ludlow and Taunton and having looked at the cards there is no bet.  I’m off the Cheltenham for the three day Paddy Power meeting tomorrow so I’ll be getting stuck into tomorrow’s card once the declarations are available.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.97

Another winning day yesterday with Renard winning as expected at a bonus price of 4/1 having drifted from 9/4 so I hope those who backed it did with a best odds guaranteed bookie.(If you haven’t,  consider opening accounts with the bookies listed further down the page on the right hand side by clicking the links). The day could have been even better had Flinty Bay not made an horrendous mistake at the 2^nd last when leading and unseating Dougie Costello. Two meetings today at Bangor-on-Dee and Exeter with one selection in the final race at Exeter.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +14.97

Exeter 3.50 1PT WIN Dream Function @4/1Various (Winner 2/1)

With things on a roll at the moment I am going to take a chance with a win bet on Dream Function to give away the penalty for her previous win against the potentially very useful  Swincombe Flame. I think Dream Flame is a certainty to finish in the first three but it was the way she jumped on her debut which impressed me and the form of the race is strong with the 2^nd and 3^rd both winning next time. Although she was not of the same class as Swincombe Flame in bumpers, Dream Function may be able to use her experience and fluent jumping to her advantage here. Well backed and always travelling well and put experience to good use jumping better than warm favourite

There are three meetings today at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield and after no selections for the few days I am back with two selections today.
P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +11.97


Sedgefield 2.00 1PT WIN Flinty Bay @5/2Various
This is a little very competitive novice handicap chase for the course and Flinty Bay is the one I fancy. He was very progressive over hurdles winning his final two races and was in touch when unseating his rider on his chasing debut at Carlisle last month. He then went to Aintree a fortnight ago and ran very well behind the promising pair of Edgardo Sol and The Cockney Mackem and I feel this should be within his capabilities, with the main danger being Going Wrong who made a pleasing comeback last time after two years off.


Lingfield 3.10 1PT WIN Renard @9/4 Various
I was kicking myself last Thursday after watch Renard winning at Chepstow as he was a horse I failed to note down in my list to follow next time after catching my eye at Carlisle on his previous run – so a 10/1 winner was missed :-(.  Based on his Carlisle run and his win last week I feel the 7lbs penalty won’t stop him and he looks like the typical Venetia Williams horse who is ahead of the handicapper and will run up  a sequence for wins over the coming weeks.