Quiet Boxing Day

Plenty of meetings today but with the ground riding heavy at almost all meetings and the markets looking tight for the horses I was interested in there is no selection today.

P&L for 2012 -13.56

New Week Change of Luck?

Saturday rounded off a poor week for the blog with Double Ross making all as expected and going to the last in front only to make a terrible mistake there and then be caught on the long run in. What I didn't expect was for him to be caught and passed by three horses and end up out of the places. Still racing goes on and there are two meetings today at Kempton and Ludlow with one selection at Kempton.

Kempton 12.30 Loose Chips 0.5PT E/W @11/2 Boylesports(1ST @4/1JF Made all, jumped well, fairly comfortable)

A winner of the blog earlier in the year and went into the note book again last month when trying to make all at Haydock only to be passed and caught at the last. Was heavily eased on the run in and the handicapper has left him on the same mark. The form is strong with the winner of the Haydock race finishing 4th at Cheltenham next time and the runner up winning at Haydock on Saturday. Today's race does not look any strong than the Haydock race and with the application of blinkers for the first time he should go very close.

P&L for 2012 -9.86

Chilly Saturday

Thursday’s selection Jennys Gold was a big drifter during the day from 9/1 to 16/1 and I didn’t hold much hope she would win before the start, but she actually race an ok race once again travelling well into contention on the 2^nd circuit before being outpaced from the home turn. I’m convinced there is a race in her off this mark and if there is a booking of a professional jockey next time I’d certainly be interested in backing her again. Still no winner in 2012 and the losing run is now up to 12, but I am convinced the winners will flow again soon. Two meetings remain today at Warwick and Kempton although Kempton faces a third inspection at 11.00 and Warwick has not warmed up a quickly as expected. If racing goes ahead there are two selections one at each meeting and both trained by Nick Williams.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +16.42 2012= -4.0

Warwick 1.25 Alfie Spinner 1PT WIN @7/2Various 2nd (10/3)

Back on the 27^th December I put up Maringo Bay a horse I rate highly in a novice chase at Chepstow as that day I thought he only had the favourite Alfie Spinner to beat and going into the race I thought he had a better chance than the favourite. As the race panned out Alfie Spinner made all and looked a sitting target all the way up the home straight for Maringo Bay to come past but having jumped upside at the last Alfie Spinner was able to pull out more and won going away in the style of a good horse. Today we will see how good the form is as Alfie Spinner runs in this competitive novice chase. With the five fences coming up quickly down the back straight I expect Alfie Spinner to use his fast accurate jumping to his advantage and put his rivals under pressure on the final circuit. Could never get to the front and was beaten by a better horse who was unproven over the trip and up to date all his best form was the opposite way around :-(. 

Kempton 2.50 Swincombe Flame 1/2PT E/W @13/2 Sporting Bet 1st (9/2F)

Swincombe Flame is a mare I have had on my radar all season and was successful in opposing her on her seasonal debut at Exeter when I selected Dream Ahead.Since then, her only defeat, she has won her next two novice hurdles comfortably and makes her handicap debut here off a very attractive mark of 123. This is an extremely competitive event but if she is going to progress onto the better class mares events later in the season then she must  go very close in this race. After 13 consecutive losers I finally manage to find a winner again with Swincombe Flame battling really well after the last to get up on the line.

Quiet Day and a Few Thoughts

Renard again drifted in the market from the advised price but was too good for his rivals under a very positive Aidan Coleman ride to give another 3pts profit for the blog. Historically October and November tend to be my most profitable months of the season and this year is no exception. I am hoping by doing the blog it will add further discipline when I inevitably hit a bad run and stop me trying to “gamble” my way out of it, which I have tended to do in the past, thus eroding my profits. I remember a few years ago having an excellent November and then having 18 losing bets of the trot in a two week period in December, hopefully by doing the blog this won’t happen again. Three meetings today at Ffos Las, Kempton and Ludlow and having reviewed the cards there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

A very enjoyable days racing at Carlisle today and a 2.13PT profit for the blog.  Koup De Kanon was heavily backed from early last evening and didn’t come off the bridle, winning like a heavily backed favourite should. Although I managed to get some 3/1 last night for blog purposes I’ll settle it a 5/2 which was available when I posted. Next up was Captain Americo who was backed from 9/1 to 6/1 and starting out on the 2^nd circuit he was travelling and jumping well but made a mistake at 2^nd down the hill and was struggling from that point. He plugged on to take 4^th and get the each way money and looks like a step up in trip beyond 3 miles would suit as he looks an out and out stayer. Finally Hidden Keel was backed from 6/5 to 8/13F and proved to be a major disappointment. The disappointment of the performance could be seen in the body language of trainer Charlie Longsdon after the race who clearly expected the horse to win. He didn’t jumped well enough and couldn’t give the weight to Mr Moonshine who was very impressive. Two meets tomorrow at Plumpton and Kempton and there is one selection at Kempton.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +11.97

Kempton 2.40 Beyond 1PT WIN 11/4 @Paddy Power 3rd (11/4F)

Beyond currently has a 50% win to run ratio under both codes and was a horse Tom Scudamore said he was looking forward to riding tomorrow after his win on Notus De La Tour at Carlisle today. Formally trained by Evan Williams Beyond  is now in the care of Martin Pipe and won on the flat during the summer before being sent off 2^nd favourite for the Cesarewitch where he finished  8^th. Assuming his improvement on the flat is transferred to hurdles then his mark of 121 could be very generous. He has already been backed this evening and I expect him to shorten further in the morning.

Sunday 16th October

Yesterday was disappointing as we only broke even, despite the two selections being heavily backed. Firstly Vosges was well backed into 4/1 but was never travelling as well as expected and was beaten with a circuit to go. James Ewart tweeted last night that they will reconsider the trip for future runs. The second selection Secret Tune continued to be backed all day before going off 9/2F. He moved into contention 1/2mile out but was very one paced and stayed on to take 3^rd. The main points to take away from my two days at Cheltenham are the Paul Nichols horses look and are running like they need their first runs of the season and the Phillip Hobbs runners despite a winner yesterday seem to be running flat (only 2 winners in past 14 days). One meeting today at Kempton and given the above comments a very tricky selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +9.81

Kempton 4.25 1PT LAY Nearby@2.8(Winning Lay 0.95PT Profit)

I thought Nearby would make a decent chaser but appears not to be in love with the game and has shown no sparkle over fences running well below his official rating. He reverts back to hurdles here and according to the handicapper appears 11lb well in at the weights. However looking back at his form he has not won for 8 races and his performances over fences would suggest he is no longer as good as his rating and looks as though he is on a downward curve.