When Your Luck Is Out

No luck again yesterday with Rowan Tiger making a bad mistake at the third last when in front which ultimately cost him third place on the run in. However this was an above average novice hurdle with the winner Grumeti  being talked about as a Triumph hurdle candidate, so Rowan Tiger remains one to follow particularly if dropped into a handicap off his current mark. Three meetings today at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and there is one selection at Warwick in an attempted to round off the year with a winning selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.42

Wawick  2.20 Tafika 1/2PT E/W @8/1B365 Fell (8/1)

A very competitive handicap chase but the one which caught my eye is Tafika who jumped exceptionally well on his season debut at Bangor earlier this month, before lack of peak fitness told and Denis O’Regan accepted defeat before two out allowing him to coast home in his own time. The trainer states on his website that he had a wind operation in the spring and may be a very well-handicapped horse. Given that if Bangor was a pipe opener then given the normal improvement between runs he should go very close today . As I have wrote this the 9/1 that was available has disappeared and 8/1 is now the best available price. Unbelievable Denis O'Regan fails to arrive from Newbury on time and he falls at the first. 

Selection For Taunton

No selection yesterday and with two meetings today at Haydock and Taunton and there is one selection at Taunton. I live about 5 miles from Haydock and am actually surprised the meeting is going ahead given all it has done for the last 48hrs is rain heavily so I would expect the ground to be very testing.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

Taunton  2.20 Rowan Tiger 1/2PT E/W @9/2Various

Rowan Tiger won very easily at Bangor last time and I would expect him to go close to defying  the penalty in this fairly competitive novice hurdle considering Tony McCoy has chosen to ride him again. However this will be no easy task as he was over 20lbs inferior on the flat to favourite Ted Spread, but like Bangor I expect him to go out and make all and put pressure on the others jumping in the later stages of the race. If he is unable to defy the penalty I cannot see him finishing outside the first three so hence at the price this is really a bet to nothing.

Poor Effort – Confidence Restore

Sole Survivor put in a very poor effort yesterday. I was never comfortable with the way he was travelling and although he was in second turning for home he drop away very quickly approaching the 2^nd last. He is better than that run and he clearly has some kind of problem.

So far December has been a wretched month for the Blog with just one winner from ten selections and in an attempt to restore some confidence last night I reviewed my stats below for the year which are showing a healthy 51PT profit and a 19% return on investment.

	Monthly	Cum
	Points	Points
Jan	22.38	22.38
Feb	19.30	41.68
Mar	-14.42	27.26
Apl	-5.66	21.60
May	-5.41	16.19
June	18.50	34.69
July	-6.50	28.19
Aug	2.83	31.02
Sept	7.50	38.52
Oct	1.91	40.43
Nov	18.75	59.18
Dec	-7.60	51.58

Having discussed with a non gambling friend last night he was very impressed that firstly I made money from backing horses and secondly that my returns are well in excess of what could be earned investing in the financial markets. Both these comments and a few beers help restore some confidence that I do know what I’m doing and from experience I know there will be good and bad runs and in truth I am doing nothing differently now in my selection approach to what I was doing early in the year or when I was having a good run in November. It is a tried and tested approach that has stood me in good stead for a number of years so I can see no reason to change it. The only thing I am now doing differently is having less bets as a result of the Blog which has added discipline to my betting and is stopping me betting to chase my losses. Having reviewed my selections over the past month I feel positive that I will soon blog a winner again as the majority of my selections are being placed without winning.

Two cards today at Doncaster and Kelso and after reviewing the cards there is nothing which stands out as a betting opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

Another Second

With Crackentorp being a non runner yesterdays only selection Maringo Bay was given a fine ride by Noel Fehily delaying his final challenge till approaching the last, but having jumped upside favourite Alfie Spinner he was clearly not as good as I thought and the favourite always had him held on the way to the line. So another second to add to the pretty dismal December statistics. Two meetings today at Leicester and Catterick and I have one selection where I am putting experience before potential with a big priced selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +23.42

Leicester 2.00 Sole Survivor 1/2PT E/W@12/1 Various

Sole Survivor was a wining selection for the blog on his seasonal debut at Warwick in November showing real battling qualities to get up on the line after looking beaten leaving the back straight. My first thoughts after that run was that he would need a step up to 2 ½ miles which he gets today.  Subsequent to his winning run I believe he ran to an improved level at Sandown last time and was bang there at the second last before making a dreadful mistake after which he was heavily eased to come home in his own time. That was a high class novice hurdle with Tetlami who was first and Knights Pass (third) both winning at  Kempton this week. Today he takes on horses of potential from the King, Henderson, Pipe and Lavelle yards but at the price I am happy to put experience before potential.

Short Headed Again

For the second time this month one of my selections was caught on the line. This time I saw a healthly 3.5 PT profit from Shoreacres turned into a 1PT loss as he was headed on the line after being given a fantastic ride by Will Kennedy. I am a firm believer in the law of averages and over a year I would expect these short heads to even themselves out so hopefully my luck will turn soon. Three meetings today at Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +24.42

Chepstow 12.30 Maringo Bay 1PT WIN@7/2 Various

Maringo Bay is a horse who caught my eye last season in his first novice chase at Fakenham when the 20/1 outsider of three was only beaten a length and a half by Mamlook and Tullymore Dew. He then reverted back to hurdles and was sent off at an amazing 33/1 next time out and won comfortably in a very strong race which has thrown up numerous novice chase winners this season. I doubt Plumpton was an ideal course for his seasonal debut where he finished third over 2 ½ miles but there is a £50k bonus for certain races at Plumpton if the winner goes on to win at the Cheltenham festival and I take this as the reason he ran there, giving me the impression the stable think he is a Cheltenham horse, so today’s three miles at Chepstow on a galloping track in heavy ground looks an ideally opportunity to get off the mark over fences.

Wetherby 12.35 Crackentorp 1PT WIN@2/1 Various

Crackentorp caught my eye earlier in the season when comfortably accounting for the highly regarded Hawk Mountain in a novice hurdle at Market Rasen. His main market rival here is Red Jade who had a comfortable winning debut at Southwell, but although there is little between them on flat ratings I feel the hurdles form of Crackentorp is better than that of Red Jade and at the prices I am happy to support him as I cannot see any of the other runners being up to the class of these two horses.

Back With A Selection

Festive Greetings to all my readers and I hope you all had a good one yesterday. I’m back with the blog after a short break due to time commitments and poor form and in this period I have had a further 7 bets with one winner, three seconds, two fours and one unplaced showing a net loss of -0.6PTS.(Will not be recorded on the blog). So in summary my selections are still running well, but for whatever reason not visting the winners enclosure as frequently as I’d like, so lets hope I can start putting this right from today. Eight meetings today and after my initial glance at the cards 12 horses interested me, but after further analysis I have narrowed it down to just one selections

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +25.42

Wincanton 1.40 Shoreacres 1PT WIN@3/1 Various

Shoreacres was a selection earlier in the season when a non runner at Aintree over fences and two subsequent runs over fences failed to see him sparkle, but a return to hurdles at Ascot and positive tactics last time out almost saw him spring a surprises at 33/1, just being caught after the last by the heavily backed David Pipe trained Our Father with the third Shuli Royale 14 lengths back in 3^rd. I think the form is much stronger than the favourite who was a fortunate winner at Cheltenham last time when the leader fell at the last. At the price in this small field he represents good value.

Better Start My Analysis Tomorrow

Just a reminder that the Blog will be back and updated with selections for Boxing Day later in the week. Only 50 races to analysis :-(

Taking A Break

Due to the current poor run of selections and the fact that I am very busy with work and cannot currently dedicate the amount of time I need to studying the form and come up with selections I have decided to take a short break from the blog and will aim to return with selections from 26th December

An Old Faithful

Two poor selections on Thursday both running well below what I expected and no selection yesterday. As I write Lingfield has been abandoned so only Doncaster (still in doubt) and Cheltenham remain and there is one selection at Cheltenham.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +26.42

Cheltenham 2.30 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W@8/1 Various

Great Endeavour was a selection when he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup a month ago and in my analysis for the race I wrote “Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2^nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival” and he won the race very easily. His subsequent run in the Hennessey was a good one as he was given every chance by Timmy Murphy to get the trip and having hit the front jumping the 2^nd last he clearly did not stay the 3 mile 2 furlong trip. Today he runs against a number of horses he beat in the Paddy Power but from a 10lb high mark, but I feel he is capable of beating them again as he was always travelling so comfortably throughout that race and he could be named the winner at the top of the hill. Assuming the Hennessay  has not taken too much out of him the current price is fair value.

Two For Today

After a quiet week there are three competitive meetings today at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Ludlow  1.10 The Chazer 1PT WIN@7/2 Various

Reading the form literally is small field novice chases can sometimes be misleading,  but  in this case I don’t think so and I am confident  the handicapper has got it wrong. The Chazer made his chase debut a month ago at Bangor finish 2^nd to the mighty  Peddlers Cross beaten only 4 ½ lengths. The race comment from the race are “raced keenly, held up in rear, went 2nd 8th, switched right and tried to challenge approaching last, always fighting losing battle, eased when no chance final 110yds”. What impressed me although he was never going to win his jumping was fast and accurate against a far superior rival and it was only after the last that the jockey eased off. Taking the above factors into consideration I believe the horse ran to a higher mark than the 121 he ran off that day and runs off again today. With the Richard Lee yard remaining in tremendous form he is worth a bet to see if I can prove the handicapper wrong.

Huntingdon 3.30 Amalric 1PT WIN@9/2 Various

I very rarely put selections up in bumpers but Amalric caught my eye when running a highly promising race in a competitive bumper in November. He was travelling extremely well on the inside going into the final half mile, but was short of room as the pace quickened losing valuable ground, but once clear stayed on all the way to the line to finish a comfortable 3^rd to a well regarded winner.  Today represents a race of similar class, but given the normal improvement from race 1 to race 2 I expect him to go very close.

Brackloon High - A Good Swerve

The market helped significantly yesterday to swerve putting up Brackloon High as a selection as I thought the 7/4 on offer early was skinny and the final sp of 5/4 was crazy. In the race he didn’t jump or travel that well and looks to me as though he will need 3 miles on a stiff track to be at his best. Two poor cards at Hexham and Leicester today and nothing caught my eye so another blank day.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Losing Streak Broken

It was nice to break the losing run yesterday with Invictus travelling and jumping well for a comfortable win at Plumpton after a fantastic piece of race riding by Choc Thornton spotting and going for a gap on the inside of the hanging leader on the home turn. My second selection Annas Arch drifted badly in the market and always looked to be struggling on the soft ground and eventually finished 4^th. So a 1PT profit on the day. Two meetings today at Fontwell and Sedgefield. I was interested in Brackloon High who makes his novice chase debut in the 1.10 at Fontwell after an eye catching run over hurdles at Cheltenham last time, but not at the price available given I read somewhere the Noel Chance stable has not had a winner for over a year.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Two Selections Today

Ballyfitz was well backed yesterday and was travelling well when making two horrendous mistakes down the back straight the 2^nd of which resulted in a unseated rider. Whether he would have been in contention at the end of the race if he hadn’t made those mistakes is difficult to say. That’s now five successive loser over the past two weeks but I’m not going to panic and will be using the same approach to my selections and continue to looking for value. There are two meetings today at Musselburgh and Plumpton and for a Monday the cards are very good and there are two selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +27.42

Plumpton 1.10 Invictus 1PT WIN@2/1 B365 1st (7/4)

I am prepared to take on the Irish raider and favourite Gift Of Dgab in this five runner novice chase with Invictus for two reason. Firstly I was very impressed with his fencing debut at Hereford a couple of weeks ago where he got into a nice rhythm and fenced quick and accurately and could be called the winner along way from home and secondly the form of the Alan King stable (8 winners in the past fortnight) compared with the Tony Martin stable who have only managed one winner in the same period. Travelled and jumped well Choc went for a gap on brave gap on inside going into home turn which proved a winning move.

Musselburgh 1.20 Anna’s Arch 1PT WIN@9/4 Boylesports 4th (10/3)

Anna’s Arch was a blog selection back in August when very easily defying a penalty in a bumper at Bangor after being heavily backed. Two subsequent runs in bumpers failed to deliver a 3^rd win( which is very difficult to achieve) and today he makes his novice hurdle debut in a very winnable race and from the market he has the ex winning flat racer Dimension to beat but I am always wary of flat horses starting their jumping careers at the age of 7. Weak in market and never travelling

It Could Be A Slog

No selection yesterday but it was interesting that Bishophill Jack who was a selection a couple of weeks ago when he  jumped appallingly managed to win a very weak handicap chase at Wetherby. Two meetings today at Kelso and Warwick and the selection comes from Kelso. 

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42

Kelso 2.30 Ballyfitz 1PT WIN@9/2 B365 Unseated rider (10/3F)

I was at Cheltenham recently when Ballyfitz finished 2^nd to Galaxy Rock and I remember at the time thinking “where did he come from” as he was doing his best work at the finish and really staying on up the hill. Although in the twilight of his career he ran well over these marathon trips last season finishing 4^th in the Welsh National and 2^nd in both the National trial at Haydock and in the Midlands National. The ground should not be an issue today and he has had a good break since Cheltenham whereas one or two of his rival have run much more recently in testing ground over these extended trips. With the stable in goodish form this represents a drop in class for Ballyfitz and I am expecting a very bold show.

Short Headed

The small margins of success and failure in gambling was clearly highlighted yesterday when a profit of 2.5pts was turned into a 1pt loss in the last stride as the selection Appleaday, who has made most was short headed on the line. That’s history now and with a great days racing with four competitive cards at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby. There was one potential selection at the 12.55 at Sandown in Knight Pass who is very highly thought of but I was expecting to see some odds against but as that is not the case then there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42 

Disappearance Of Posts Was Only Temporary

Apologies for no posts over the past few days but I have been away on business and been unable to find any time to study the racing. Two meetings today at Exeter and Sandown and there is one selection at Sandown to hopefully get December off to a winning start.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Sandown 3.05 Appleaday 1PT WIN@5/2 Ladbrokes 2nd (13/8F)

This five runner handicap chase is not the most competitive and my preference is for the top weighted, front running grey Appleaday who has good form around the track and if the trainers comments re anything to go by should be up to winning a race like this as he comments on his website “Ran really well on his seasonal re-appearance at Sandown to finish third. He jumped superbly and we hope he'll win next time, possibly a return visit to Sandown on 2nd December is on the cards, as it appears to be his favourite track”. Beaten a short head - was caught on line having jumped really well.

Typical Monday

Two meeting today at Folkestone and Ffos Las but with small fields and short price favourites there is no selection once again.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Very Poor Selection Yesterday

Saint Denis was a very poor selection yesterday. Although a bit of money came for him before the off he pulled to hard and was beaten over a mile and a half out and was eventually pulled up. One to avoid for the future as appears to be void of ability. On to today with two meetings at Carlisle and Leicester but there is no selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Typical

James Ewart had four runners yesterday and my selection Vosges was the only one not to win. Although beaten I am not too disappointed, as it is something you have to accept in this game and at the prices Vosges was the only horse I wanted back at. As expected there was good support for him in the market and he jumped well but was unable to peg back the front running Carrietau who was given a fantastic ride by Henry Brooke a conditional I have a lot of time for. So one point dropped on the day, but I would expect to get that back from Vosges later in the season. A fantastic days racing again today with previous winning blog selections (Great Endeavour, Dream Function) running at Newbury, but at the prices available they are a bit too short to be considered in these competitive events. In additions there are good meetings at Newcastle, Bangor-on-Dee and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Towcester 2.45 Saint Denis 1/2PT E/W 14/1 various

Like last Saturday this is a speculative selection (I hope it runs better than last weeks)but at the price on offer I think it is worth a bet. Saint Denis caught my eye last season running well in a number of novice hurdles without getting competitive and makes his handicap debut here off a rating of just 97. Although the stable are not in great form the booking of Paddy Brennan looks significant together with the step up to 3 miles for the first time and with the exception of the warm favourite Valid Point the other runners look fully exposed. 

One For Today

Three meetings today at Doncaster, Newbury and Musselburgh and it’s off to Scotland we go for the selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42

Musselburgh 2.25 Vosges  1PT WIN @7/2 Various 2nd (9/4)

Vosges was a selection earlier in the season when running disappointingly at Kelso in a two mile six furlong novice handicap chase in which the 1^st and 4^th have both won since.  Given the reports that had been coming out from the yard much more was expected and immediate reaction from the trainer was that the horse didn’t stay and a drop back in trip would suit. Today he runs at the minimum trip, on a course he won twice at last season. With race conditions allowing him to get 4 year olds a weight allowance and with the trainer hitting form I think the current price on offer represents excellent value. Jumped ok was always in 2nd place unable to catch all the way winner who got an easy lead.

Another Quiet Day

Prosecco was heavily backed yesterday from an advised price of 11/2 into 15/8F, but to my eyes appeared to be struggling to lay up with the pace from the start and finally dropping away from the third last and ending up finishing 5th. On that evidence he needs further and probably softer ground so I’ll be keeping him on my radar. Three meetings today at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter but there is nothing that stand out as a betting opportunity for me today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42

Back With A Selection For Tomorrow

No selection for the past couple of days but with two meetings tomorrow at Fontwell and Wetherby and there is one selection at Wetherby.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Wetherby 2.00 Prosecco 1PT WIN @11/2 Ladbrokes 5th (15/8F)

At the price available Prosecco is a fairly confident choice in a fairly competitive 2 mile handicap chase. He caught my eye last season winning a handicap chase in off a 5lb lower mark at Ayr and was then stepped up in trip for his last two runs and didn’t run badly in either and on his last run was third to The Panama Kid who won his last race off a 20lb higher mark. With the stable in cracking form, the horses running well and the trainer stating the horses best trip is over two miles on soft ground tomorrow looks a good opportunity.

Keeping The Winnings Safe

No selection again today with two poor low class cards at Lingfield and Sedgefield and as I've mentioned before I am not trying to find a selection just for the sake of it.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Quiet Day and a Few Thoughts

Renard again drifted in the market from the advised price but was too good for his rivals under a very positive Aidan Coleman ride to give another 3pts profit for the blog. Historically October and November tend to be my most profitable months of the season and this year is no exception. I am hoping by doing the blog it will add further discipline when I inevitably hit a bad run and stop me trying to “gamble” my way out of it, which I have tended to do in the past, thus eroding my profits. I remember a few years ago having an excellent November and then having 18 losing bets of the trot in a two week period in December, hopefully by doing the blog this won’t happen again. Three meetings today at Ffos Las, Kempton and Ludlow and having reviewed the cards there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +32.42

Some Thoughts On Yesterday and a Selection For Today

What a fantastic days racing yesterday and all credit to Paul Nichols and his team for having Kauto Star spot on from what was probably his “Gold Cup” and to Ruby Walsh for giving him the perfect ride.  For me what became clear from the race is if Kauto has reached his peak and is supposedly on the downgrade then the young pretenders (Time For Rupert, Wierd Al and Diamond Harry) have much improvement to make if they are going to be serious challengers to Long Run come March. I mentioned yesterday that my selection Bishophill Jack was speculative and after being backed from 7’s into 4’s I can honestly say that is the worst performance by a selection I have put on my blog since I started in August. Never travelling or jumping with any fluency he was tailed off and pulled up with a circuit to go. Surprisingly as there is nothing reported on the BHA Steward Room “why they ran badly” section it appears the Ascot stewards didn’t bother to ask, although I’m sure there will be something later today on Kim Baileys Blog. Two meetings today at Exeter and Towcester and again one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Exeter 2.30 Renard 1PT WIN@5/2 Boylesports 1st (3/1)

Renard was a selection at Lingfield when he won last time and although up 8lbs for that win I still think he maybe ahead of the handicapper. He jumped well and won with a bit in hand last time and this stiff Exeter track should be ideal. The main danger from the betting appears to be the Phillip Hobbs trained Robin De Creuse who switch to fences is significant in that it is straight into a handicap, but he was a horse I was following last season who has a very disappointing profile and I think he will need further than this trip. So Renard is a fairly confident selection to complete the hat-trick. Jumped well, quickened home turn to get first run, comfortably competes the hat-trick.

Fantastic Days Racing

The race Mr Moonshine won yesterday panned out as expected as he made all jumping fluently and having his rivals in trouble from three out for a comfortable win and an additional 2.75PTS for the blog. Fantastic days racing today with three meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon with one selection at Ascot.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Ascot  1.00 Bishophill Jack 1PT WIN@7/1 various. PU (4/1)

Speculative selection today with a horse that is well thought of by the yard. He has gambled on for this first run in a handicap hurdle at Huntingdon last season but ran appallingly after which his train mentioned he was a big immature baby who would be better over fences this season. After his last run the trainer commented that “Bishophill Jack jumped and ran well but showed that he needs further. Today he steps up to 3 miles and off bottom weight with Jason Maguire on board he has to be given a chance at the price available.Well backed but another appalling run and never got into any rhythm before being pulled up. One to avoid for me from now on.

Hindsight and The Benefit of Twitter

Moonlight Drive travelled and jumped well yesterday in finishing 2^nd but I wish I could have withdrawn the Blog selection after reading the following tweet from Sean Quinn trainers son “We like Moonlight Drive but its his 1st spin over fences + he will definitely come on for the run” and after the race tweeted “MD...well don't say you weren't told. Nice horse though + we're happy enough” .  So consider yesterday a temporary loan to the bookmakers that we will get back with interest at a later stage of the season, as he remains a horse with a lot of potential and is one I will keep on my side. Two meetings today at Ascot and Haydock and there is one selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +27.67

Haydock 1.35 Mr Moonshine 1PT WIN @11/4 Paddy Power 1st (11/4)

I was at Carlisle a few weeks ago when Mr Moonshine comfortably beat my selection that day Hidden Keel and it was clearly no fluke. He travelled and jumped well and had my selection in trouble with over a circuit to go. Today is no easy task, as last time he was receiving weight from the field but today he has to give 8lb to his three very decent rivals, however I expect him to attempt to go out and try to make all and if he can get into a nice rhythm like at Carlisle I can see his putting pressure on his rivals jumping. As well as the weight concession there is an additional risk that after he put up a very impressive performance at Huntingdon last season he ran very flat in his following race. However the Sue Smith stable remain in good form and at the price available with the experience jumping fences I think he is a worthwhile bet. Made all jumped well, another comfortable winner

Another Winner Yesterday

Sole Survivor proved another profitable day for the blog, surprisingly drifting out to a SP of 12/1 having been advised at 10/1 and being backed during the morning to as low as 6/1. Always in the front rank he jumped ok early on, but started making mistakes from about 4 out and I must admit I thought he would drop away and finish mid field and be better for the run, but to his credit he showed great courage to battle back from the home turn and get up on the line. He is clearly a stayer and a step up in trip will suit next time out. So another 7.2PTs profit on the day.Three meetings tomorrow at Hereford, Market Rasen and Wincacton and there is one selection at Market  Rasen.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.67

Market Rasen 1.50 Moonlight Drive 1PT WIN @11/8 B365

This is a fairly competitive novice chase and I was immediately attracted to the booking of the champ AP McCoy for trainer John Quinn in the absence of suspended stable jockey Dougie Costello. Having gone into the form of the horse and visited the trainers website I can now understand why the jockey booking. John Quinn comments “this lad surprised me last season. I fell in love with him when I saw him at the Brightwells point-to-point to sale last year. However, I bought with a view to him being a long term project and he probably still is. Yet the speed he shows at home for a horse with his breeding is amazing. He won his novice hurdle at Wetherby from a well regarded horse in Trustan Times. We then ran him in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and it was a case of asking too much from him too soon. He has strengthened nicely through the summer months and he will now go novice chasing. Big horse, big future”.  Given the jockey booking I expect a big run today.

Almost Missed A Selection

Having just read an update on Paul Webbers website there is a horse running today which I almost missed as for some reason I have failed to get an e-mail from the Racing UK Nagme service

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.47

Warwick 15.00 Sole Survivor 1/2PT E/W  @10/1 Bet365 (1st 12/1)

Sole Survivor was a horse I was following last season who had three runs in bumpers. He is highly thought of by his stable and makes his debut today in a fairly competitive novice hurdle, although a couple of the shorter priced horses in the market look as though they need further than this minimum 2 mile trip. The latest stable view on the horse on their website  is “one of the best looking horses in the yard, has schooled so impressively and will hopefully make his debut over hurdles next week. We are getting excited about this horse”.  At his current price I think he is worth an investment. Looks to need further than minimum 2 mile trip but stayed on well from home turn to get there on the line for another nice priced winner.

More Competitive Days Racing

Much more competitive racing today at Hexham and Warwick, but having been through the cards there is nothing that jumps out as a betting opportunity.  As I have mentioned before the reason for doing my blog is to add further discipline to my betting and not go looking for selections when I have no strong opinions, which in the past has resulted in a number of unsuccessful bets.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.47

Poor Quality Racing Again

Having been spoilt with the high class racing at Cheltenham over the weekend today we once again have  two very low class cards at Fakenham and Folkestone with small fields and poor class horses and as a result there is no bet. Things should  improve as the week progresses and there will be some selections later in the week.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.47

A Bit of A Rant

Back from a fantastic three days racing at Cheltenham with plenty of future winners spotted for the blog over the coming months. 

There was one selection yesterday at Fontwell with It’s A Classic finishing 2^nd but I was very disappointed by the ride given by Mark Grant as this stamina testing race was run at crawl for 2 ½ circuits before the tempo increased and turned into a sprint from four out. As a result It’s A Classic who is an out and out stayer was outpaced dropping back to 5^th on the home turn before staying on up the home straight to take 2^nd but having no chance with winner Always Bold who had already gone clear. Having never ridden a horse in a race maybe I am being unfair on the jockey but having been a reader of races for over 20 years why the jockey didn’t go to the front and gradually increase the tempo  himself with over a circuit to go and uses the horses abundant stamina is beyond me.  Rant over as only 1PT lost on the day after what has been a very good week for the blog. Two cards today at Leicester and Plumpton and being a typical Monday with small fields and there is no selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.47

Great To Be Back To Winning Ways

Nice to bounce back after Friday’s disappointment with an excellent result in the Paddy Power with Great Endeavour delivering a highly impressive performance to win at an SP of 8/1. I hope most of you who have backed him managed to get the 12/1 which was available when I posted the blog for a 7.5pt profit on the day. If you didn’t get the 12/1 consider opening accounts with all major bookmakers (links available on the right hand side of the blog). There are two meetings tomorrow at Cheltenham and Fonwell and the selection comes at Fontwell.

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Fontwell 12.55 It’s A Classic 1PT WIN  @6/1 Bet365 2nd (8/1)

I don’t usually back horses with letters in their form but this is such a bad race that I really fancy It’s A Classic on the price on offer even though in his last three runs he has been brought down, pulled up and refused. This hurdle race over 3 miles and 3 furlongs on soft ground is going to be a real stamina test and even though It’s A Classic refused last time out at Carlisle he caught my eye as he jumped and travelled well and was still in contention at the 2^nd last in a competitive 3 mile handicap chase. Renard a winner for the blog earlier this week also refused in this race. Tomorrow he reverts to hurdles for the first time in 5 years off a mark 9lb lower than what he ran off at Carlisle last time. Although he is 10 he has only had 26 starts and his form is far better than anything else in the race with 4 wins 4 seconds and 4 thirds, something I doubt any of his rivals will ever achieve. The stable is in reasonable form particularly on the flat and as this is such a bad race at 6/1 he is worth taking a chance with.

Hoping For A Better Day

A very poor day yesterday with all four selections failing to deliver. Firstly I found out after posting the Blog that the priority for Zaru yesterday was to get him round after his fall last time and the market drift reflected this. He ran ok to finish 5^th and is now qualified for handicap hurdles so remains of interest. Time For Spring looked very one paced when the race quickened from the top of the hill and finished very tired in 5^th.  Prospect Wells looked like a welcome winner as he past me half way up the Cheltenham run in, being ¾ of a length clear but his stride was shortening and Steps To Freedom was coming with a fair rattle and nabbed him on the line by a neck. Finally the way Grand Crus was travelling I doubt Cue Card would have beaten him even if he had stood up. So 4pts dropped on a very disappointing day.

Three meetings today at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. Having analysed the cards there is one selection in the big race at Cheltenham.

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Cheltenham 2.35 Great Endeavour 1/2PT E/W @12/1 Various 1st 8/1

Great Endeavour had only four runs last season and failed to trouble the judge but could be ahead of the handicapper for this race on the assumption he had not fallen at the 2^nd last in a valuable 3 mile handicap at the festival. That day the he had jumped well but looked as though he probably didn’t stay the 3 miles, so the drop back in trip should suit and with the current form of the David Pipe yard(3 winners yesterday) the 12/1 available looks  good each way value.

Cheltenham For The Next Three Days

Off to Cheltenham today for the three day Paddy Power meeting so having analysed the Cheltenham and Newcastle cards in some detail I have come up with no less than four selections.

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Newcastle 12.30 Zaru 1/2PT E/W@6/1 B365 5th(9/1)

Overall  Zaru has a disappointing profile having failed to win a race so far, but I am the price I am prepared to give him one last chance. A hard puller that has been difficult to settle in previous races he showed similar traits at Kelso first time out this season, but was still in with a chance at the 2^nd last when he fell. The winner of that race Simply Ned defied a penalty in very easy fashion at Kelso earlier this week.  This is no better than the race at Kelso so assuming Brian Hughes can get him to settle then there is a good chance he will be able to fulfil the promise he showed in bumpers last season.

Cheltenham 1.10 Time For Spring 1/2PT E/W@6/1 Various 5th(10/3F)

A winner of his only novice chase Time For Spring looks well handicapped off a mark of 125 and the jockey booking of Sam Waley-Cohen looks significant. Although I initially was not overly impressed with his win at Carlisle the form of the races has worked out well with the 2^nd and 3^rd winning next time out and his trainer commented after the race that he will improve again when he steps up to 3 miles which he does for the first time tomorrow.

Cheltenham 2.55 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN@7/2 Boylesports 2nd (9/2)

I was very impressed with the debut of Prospect Wells at Chepstow just over two weeks ago in particular the ease with which he scythed through the field from the 3^rd last. He was a decent stayer on the flat  and the extra test of Cheltenham will play to his strengths together with the weight he receives from the favourite Steps To Freedom.

Cheltenham 4.05 Cue Card 1PT WIN @13/8 William Hill UR (7/4)

Hill

This race is worth the admission fee alone as Cue Card takes on Grand Crus in best novice chase of the season so far. Cue Card really impressed me at this meeting last season and was very impressed with his seasonal debut at Chepstow  with the second and third winning since. I expect Grand Crus to develop into one of the top staying novices this season, but over this trip, with a fitness advantage and his stable bang in form it has to be Cue Card for me.

The Good Run Continues

The good run continues with another winning selection yesterday with Dream Function winning the last at Exeter in very impressive fashion having been backed in from 4/1 to a starting price of 2/1 and in the process  overturing the highly regarded Swincombe Flame. Two meetings today at Ludlow and Taunton and having looked at the cards there is no bet.  I’m off the Cheltenham for the three day Paddy Power meeting tomorrow so I’ll be getting stuck into tomorrow’s card once the declarations are available.

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Another winning day yesterday with Renard winning as expected at a bonus price of 4/1 having drifted from 9/4 so I hope those who backed it did with a best odds guaranteed bookie.(If you haven’t,  consider opening accounts with the bookies listed further down the page on the right hand side by clicking the links). The day could have been even better had Flinty Bay not made an horrendous mistake at the 2^nd last when leading and unseating Dougie Costello. Two meetings today at Bangor-on-Dee and Exeter with one selection in the final race at Exeter.

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Exeter 3.50 1PT WIN Dream Function @4/1Various (Winner 2/1)

With things on a roll at the moment I am going to take a chance with a win bet on Dream Function to give away the penalty for her previous win against the potentially very useful  Swincombe Flame. I think Dream Flame is a certainty to finish in the first three but it was the way she jumped on her debut which impressed me and the form of the race is strong with the 2^nd and 3^rd both winning next time. Although she was not of the same class as Swincombe Flame in bumpers, Dream Function may be able to use her experience and fluent jumping to her advantage here. Well backed and always travelling well and put experience to good use jumping better than warm favourite

There are three meetings today at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield and after no selections for the few days I am back with two selections today.
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Sedgefield 2.00 1PT WIN Flinty Bay @5/2Various
This is a little very competitive novice handicap chase for the course and Flinty Bay is the one I fancy. He was very progressive over hurdles winning his final two races and was in touch when unseating his rider on his chasing debut at Carlisle last month. He then went to Aintree a fortnight ago and ran very well behind the promising pair of Edgardo Sol and The Cockney Mackem and I feel this should be within his capabilities, with the main danger being Going Wrong who made a pleasing comeback last time after two years off.


Lingfield 3.10 1PT WIN Renard @9/4 Various
I was kicking myself last Thursday after watch Renard winning at Chepstow as he was a horse I failed to note down in my list to follow next time after catching my eye at Carlisle on his previous run – so a 10/1 winner was missed :-(.  Based on his Carlisle run and his win last week I feel the 7lbs penalty won’t stop him and he looks like the typical Venetia Williams horse who is ahead of the handicapper and will run up  a sequence for wins over the coming weeks.

Three meetings today at Carlisle, Hereford and Southwell and a mixture of small fields and a number of interest races means there is no selection again today. Should be back with something tomorrow.

Informative days racing yesterday with plenty of runners going into the notebook. Two meetings today at Market Rasen and Ffos Las and again having reviewed the cards there is nothing which stands out as a value bet although based on his performance last week I doubt a 7lb penalty will stop Koup De Kanon in the 2.20 at Market Rasen, but having got 3/1 last week today's price makes little appeal.

Cresswell Crusader was a very well backed winner yesterday, although the last furlong was a long one as he appeared to idle in front and at one stage looked as though he may be caught. Still a welcome winner and nice to see a plan well executed for the Anthony Honeyball Racing Club. A very competitive days racing today with three meetings at Kelso, Sandown and Wincanton and it is another Saturday for watching for me as I have no strong opinions.

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The market spoke volumes for my selection Alfie Flits yesterday. Having opened at 5/1 on course he drifted out to 9/1 a clear indication that something wasn’t right and then Racing UK confirmed that he looked very much in need of the run and ran accordingly and finished last. Looking back at my records very  few of the selections I recommend drift to a bigger price than I recommend and when they do they run like yesterday, therefore if this happens in future an option may be to consider laying the horse on Betfair to recover your stake. Two meetings today at Hexham and Fontwell and I have one selection at the later meeting.

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Fontwell 2.10 1PT WIN Cresswell Crusaders @3/1Various 1st (6/4F)

Cresswell Crusader is the winner of a bumper and a horse that should have already won a novice hurdle, but for a very rare poor ride by his jockey Rachael Green at Lingfield in February. Lack of a win last season  means he starts the season on a very attractive handicap mark. Trainer Anthony Honeyball is a trainer to watch this National Hunt season and is in really good form at the moment and this horse represents the first runner for the Anthony Honeyball Racing Club, so is likely to be spot on for this event. Since starting to draft the Blog the 10/3 has already disappeared and I expect  it to shortern up further during the day. All out in the end but a welcome winner

There are two meetings tomorrow at Musselburgh and Towcester. Not the highest quality cards but there is one horse which stood out when I had a quick glance at the cards earlier this evening and I notice it has been backed with a number of firms.

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Musselburgh  1.00 1/2PT E/W Alfie Flits @7/1 Boylesports Unplcd (9/1)

When I had a quick glance at this race I thought Alfie Flits at somewhere near his best would be a class above these and my initial thoughts seem to be vindicated as he has already been backed with one or two firms already. A formally useful novice hurdler he spent last season novice chasing and never really looked a natural, but if we go back to his hurdle form of two seasons ago he was competitive in class 2 hurdles off a stone more than his rating tomorrow. The Alan Swinbank stable are in reasonable form and at the price available I am prepared to support my initial thoughts. (Alarming drift from 5/1 to 9/1 and then Racing UK confirmed the horse looked in need of the run and ran accordingly)

A poor round of jumping by Ghizao yesterday meaning he was never really in contention after his first mistake at the second fence.There are two meetings today at Chepstow and Warwick and having analysed the cards there is no bet.

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Beyond after being heavily backed yesterday morning drifted on course to the price I advised and ran ok though was clearly no match for the Paul Nicholls trained King of the Night who was heavily supported on course and given a majestic ride by Ruby Walsh won very easily despite carrying top weight. Today there is a high quality card at Exeter where there is one selection in the big race.

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Exeter 2.50 1PT WIN Ghizao @11/4 William Hill 4th (9/4)

Given the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard and the receipt of 5lbs for Captain Chris I strongly fancy Ghizao to come out on top of this battle. Last season the selection beat Captain Chris twice and at Newbury gave him 10lbs. Sometimes making the odd mistake at critical stages of races Paul Nicholls mention at his open day that the horse would be  given plenty of schooling and this would be his target before going for the Tingle Creek. Very poor round of jumping

A very enjoyable days racing at Carlisle today and a 2.13PT profit for the blog.  Koup De Kanon was heavily backed from early last evening and didn’t come off the bridle, winning like a heavily backed favourite should. Although I managed to get some 3/1 last night for blog purposes I’ll settle it a 5/2 which was available when I posted. Next up was Captain Americo who was backed from 9/1 to 6/1 and starting out on the 2^nd circuit he was travelling and jumping well but made a mistake at 2^nd down the hill and was struggling from that point. He plugged on to take 4^th and get the each way money and looks like a step up in trip beyond 3 miles would suit as he looks an out and out stayer. Finally Hidden Keel was backed from 6/5 to 8/13F and proved to be a major disappointment. The disappointment of the performance could be seen in the body language of trainer Charlie Longsdon after the race who clearly expected the horse to win. He didn’t jumped well enough and couldn’t give the weight to Mr Moonshine who was very impressive. Two meets tomorrow at Plumpton and Kempton and there is one selection at Kempton.

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Kempton 2.40 Beyond 1PT WIN 11/4 @Paddy Power 3rd (11/4F)

Beyond currently has a 50% win to run ratio under both codes and was a horse Tom Scudamore said he was looking forward to riding tomorrow after his win on Notus De La Tour at Carlisle today. Formally trained by Evan Williams Beyond  is now in the care of Martin Pipe and won on the flat during the summer before being sent off 2^nd favourite for the Cesarewitch where he finished  8^th. Assuming his improvement on the flat is transferred to hurdles then his mark of 121 could be very generous. He has already been backed this evening and I expect him to shorten further in the morning.

No bet today but two meetings at Carlisle and Huntingdon  tomorrow.  I’m off to Carlisle in the morning so have been reviewing the card most of the day and there are three selections I have backed.

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Carlisle1.20 1PT WIN Koup De Kanon @5/2 William Hill Winner (6/5F)

Koup De Kanon has a disappointing profile given the form of his first two runs last season. He has since left Emma Lavelle and is now with Donald McCain and in his excellent Betfair column he reckons this is his best bet of the weekend stating “He is one of the Timeform Betfair Racing Club horses and he showed a decent level of ability for Emma Lavelle in a bumper and over hurdles last season. He was due to run at Kelso a fortnight ago but wasn't quite right the night before so I took him out. This doesn't look a strong race and he has done everything nicely at home since we got him. He looks on a good mark and with Henry Brooke taking off another 5lb (and he is good value for it), he really ought to go very well”. Although the price appears skinny with the stable expectation it may look a good price after the race. As I have been writing this the horse has been backed in from an opening price of 3/1.

Carlisle 2.40 1/2PT E/W Captain Americo @9/1 Bet 365 4TH(6/1)

An ultra competitive three mile handicap chase that I expect to be run at a fair clip and Captain Americo is the one that catches my eye. Heavily backed on his seasonal debut at Kelso he never was really able to land a blow finishing 4^th. The trainer stated after the races that the horse may have needed the run, so I am expecting a much improved run. With stable jockey Brian Hughes suspended Nick Schofield who has won on him before and is riding well, make his way North to ride him for the same owner as he won for at Ascot today.

Carlisle 3.15 1PT WIN Hidden Keel @6/5 William Hill 2ND (8/13F)

Although very short in the betting Hidden Keel is a horse I am really looking forward to seeing the flesh as I expect him to take a high ranking amongst the top chasers come the end of the season. A winner of a handicap hurdle and three novice chases last season he has the profile of an improving horse. The conditions of this race means that although the highest rated he gets weight from Gilbarry and Divers and with the form of the Charlie Longsdon yard I expect him to win this comfortably before going on to bigger and better things.

Yesterday’s selection Persian Gates was a faller at the 2^nd last when just being joined for the lead by eventual winner Fistral Beach. My initial thought was he has probably beaten at the time but having just watch the reply I’m unsure, but the main thing was that his trainer Chris Bealby  tweeted last night ” Persian Gates is fine after his tumble at Wetherby, who can say if he would have won but he still ran a hell of a race”. A very competitive days racing today with two meetings at Ascot and Wetherby and it is a day for watching for me as I have no strong opinions.

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I’m looking forward to a day racing at Carlisle tomorrow. Don’t think I’ve been there for about 5 years so looking to see what the new hurdles course looks like and any other improvements they have made. One or two of the declarations interest me so if the prices are right there should be one or two selections.

Very disappointing run by Shuli Royale yesterday.  As expected he was backed into 6/5F but the race was run at a crawl and turned into a bit of a sprint from leaving the back straight and he was clearly outpaced. He is better than this and with a run under his belt will be of interest to me again in the future. Two meetings today at Wetherby and Uttoxeter with one selection at Wetherby.

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Wetherby 3.50 1PT WIN Persian Gates@9/2 Paddy Power Fell (4/1)

A winning selection last time out Persian Gates is now a shorter price in a much more competitive race. So why are you backing him I hear you say? Well it was the manner of his victory last time out( in my eyes he had the race won before they left the back straight) that gave me the impression he could still be ahead of the handicapper. He has gone up another 10lbs for that win (21lbs for his last two wins), but he has a fitness advantage over his rivals, who may be using this race as a stepping stone to better things later in the season. The one I am scared of most is Shoreacres who was a non runner when selected on Saturday. He has an excellent first time out record, but I think Persian Gates fitness and fast accurate jumping will be the difference here. Looked as though he was probably beaten when fell at the 2nd last when just being pressed by eventual winner Fistral Beach.