Short Headed

The small margins of success and failure in gambling was clearly highlighted yesterday when a profit of 2.5pts was turned into a 1pt loss in the last stride as the selection Appleaday, who has made most was short headed on the line. That’s history now and with a great days racing with four competitive cards at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby. There was one potential selection at the 12.55 at Sandown in Knight Pass who is very highly thought of but I was expecting to see some odds against but as that is not the case then there is no bet today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +28.42 

Disappearance Of Posts Was Only Temporary

Apologies for no posts over the past few days but I have been away on business and been unable to find any time to study the racing. Two meetings today at Exeter and Sandown and there is one selection at Sandown to hopefully get December off to a winning start.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Sandown 3.05 Appleaday 1PT WIN@5/2 Ladbrokes 2nd (13/8F)

This five runner handicap chase is not the most competitive and my preference is for the top weighted, front running grey Appleaday who has good form around the track and if the trainers comments re anything to go by should be up to winning a race like this as he comments on his website “Ran really well on his seasonal re-appearance at Sandown to finish third. He jumped superbly and we hope he'll win next time, possibly a return visit to Sandown on 2nd December is on the cards, as it appears to be his favourite track”. Beaten a short head - was caught on line having jumped really well.

Typical Monday

Two meeting today at Folkestone and Ffos Las but with small fields and short price favourites there is no selection once again.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Very Poor Selection Yesterday

Saint Denis was a very poor selection yesterday. Although a bit of money came for him before the off he pulled to hard and was beaten over a mile and a half out and was eventually pulled up. One to avoid for the future as appears to be void of ability. On to today with two meetings at Carlisle and Leicester but there is no selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +29.42

Typical

James Ewart had four runners yesterday and my selection Vosges was the only one not to win. Although beaten I am not too disappointed, as it is something you have to accept in this game and at the prices Vosges was the only horse I wanted back at. As expected there was good support for him in the market and he jumped well but was unable to peg back the front running Carrietau who was given a fantastic ride by Henry Brooke a conditional I have a lot of time for. So one point dropped on the day, but I would expect to get that back from Vosges later in the season. A fantastic days racing again today with previous winning blog selections (Great Endeavour, Dream Function) running at Newbury, but at the prices available they are a bit too short to be considered in these competitive events. In additions there are good meetings at Newcastle, Bangor-on-Dee and Towcester and the selection comes from Towcester.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +30.42

Towcester 2.45 Saint Denis 1/2PT E/W 14/1 various

Like last Saturday this is a speculative selection (I hope it runs better than last weeks)but at the price on offer I think it is worth a bet. Saint Denis caught my eye last season running well in a number of novice hurdles without getting competitive and makes his handicap debut here off a rating of just 97. Although the stable are not in great form the booking of Paddy Brennan looks significant together with the step up to 3 miles for the first time and with the exception of the warm favourite Valid Point the other runners look fully exposed. 

One For Today

Three meetings today at Doncaster, Newbury and Musselburgh and it’s off to Scotland we go for the selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42

Musselburgh 2.25 Vosges  1PT WIN @7/2 Various 2nd (9/4)

Vosges was a selection earlier in the season when running disappointingly at Kelso in a two mile six furlong novice handicap chase in which the 1^st and 4^th have both won since.  Given the reports that had been coming out from the yard much more was expected and immediate reaction from the trainer was that the horse didn’t stay and a drop back in trip would suit. Today he runs at the minimum trip, on a course he won twice at last season. With race conditions allowing him to get 4 year olds a weight allowance and with the trainer hitting form I think the current price on offer represents excellent value. Jumped ok was always in 2nd place unable to catch all the way winner who got an easy lead.

Another Quiet Day

Prosecco was heavily backed yesterday from an advised price of 11/2 into 15/8F, but to my eyes appeared to be struggling to lay up with the pace from the start and finally dropping away from the third last and ending up finishing 5th. On that evidence he needs further and probably softer ground so I’ll be keeping him on my radar. Three meetings today at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter but there is nothing that stand out as a betting opportunity for me today.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +31.42