No Selection Today

One average looking meeting a Plumpton today and there is no selection.


P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94 

Winner Eventually and Time To Reflect

Swincombe Flame finally managed to end the dreadful losing run of 13 bets yesterday, when getting up on the line to win by a nose at 9/2 having been advised at 13/2. These types of  losing runs which will always occur at the price range in which I operate but this one has contained an enormous amount of bad luck (beaten by a nose, short head and a solid jumper falling at the first) so it was nice to see the luck change yesterday and the nose verdict to go my way. For those who have been following the blog regularly I hope we can kick on from here and look to build up to a profit of around 50PTS which is what I have achieved over the past 5 years. Thanks for those readers particularly Mark from Patient Speculation who have commented throughout the bad run, although I always tried to remain positive there were times when I was pulling my hair out as results failed to go my way. A classic example yesterday being Alfie Spinner who ran a perfectly solid race, but came up against a much better horse in Frascati Park, who I had dismissed on the basis of two factors 1. He had never been over the trip and 2. All his best form was going the other way round. Neither proved to be a hindrance and he went out and made all with Alfie Spinner chasing him the whole way. This is what I love about gambling on  horse racing you think you have every angle covered but until the race has been run there could be other variables that you didn't consider or weren't aware of.

As Kelso has been abandoned today there are no selections.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.48 2012= -0.94 

Chilly Saturday

Thursday’s selection Jennys Gold was a big drifter during the day from 9/1 to 16/1 and I didn’t hold much hope she would win before the start, but she actually race an ok race once again travelling well into contention on the 2^nd circuit before being outpaced from the home turn. I’m convinced there is a race in her off this mark and if there is a booking of a professional jockey next time I’d certainly be interested in backing her again. Still no winner in 2012 and the losing run is now up to 12, but I am convinced the winners will flow again soon. Two meetings remain today at Warwick and Kempton although Kempton faces a third inspection at 11.00 and Warwick has not warmed up a quickly as expected. If racing goes ahead there are two selections one at each meeting and both trained by Nick Williams.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +16.42 2012= -4.0

Warwick 1.25 Alfie Spinner 1PT WIN @7/2Various 2nd (10/3)

Back on the 27^th December I put up Maringo Bay a horse I rate highly in a novice chase at Chepstow as that day I thought he only had the favourite Alfie Spinner to beat and going into the race I thought he had a better chance than the favourite. As the race panned out Alfie Spinner made all and looked a sitting target all the way up the home straight for Maringo Bay to come past but having jumped upside at the last Alfie Spinner was able to pull out more and won going away in the style of a good horse. Today we will see how good the form is as Alfie Spinner runs in this competitive novice chase. With the five fences coming up quickly down the back straight I expect Alfie Spinner to use his fast accurate jumping to his advantage and put his rivals under pressure on the final circuit. Could never get to the front and was beaten by a better horse who was unproven over the trip and up to date all his best form was the opposite way around :-(. 

Kempton 2.50 Swincombe Flame 1/2PT E/W @13/2 Sporting Bet 1st (9/2F)

Swincombe Flame is a mare I have had on my radar all season and was successful in opposing her on her seasonal debut at Exeter when I selected Dream Ahead.Since then, her only defeat, she has won her next two novice hurdles comfortably and makes her handicap debut here off a very attractive mark of 123. This is an extremely competitive event but if she is going to progress onto the better class mares events later in the season then she must  go very close in this race. After 13 consecutive losers I finally manage to find a winner again with Swincombe Flame battling really well after the last to get up on the line.

Winners To Flow Again?

No selection for the past few days as racing hasn’t been too great and I’ve been paper selecting in various races to prove I can still pick winners. Yesterday was good for the confidence with 5 selections and 4 winners (7/2, 7/4, 5/1 and 8/1) but not for the pocket as there was no money on them. Saturday’s selection Prospect Wells was typical of the current run – well backed and running poorly. On to today with two meeting as Catterick and Fontwell with one selection coming at Fontwell.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +17.42 2012= -3.0

Fontwell 3.05 Jenny’s Gold 1/2PT E/W @9/1 William Hill 4th (16/1)

Jenny’s Gold caught my eye a few weeks ago at Plumpton when being backed throughout the day for a 3 mile plus handicap hurdle.  Having backed the horse a couple of years ago when she won a bumper at Towcester I took more of an interest in her run and feel this drop back in trip today will see her go very close. During the Plumpton race she was held up at the back for the first mile and then jockey made a strange mid race move rapidly moving her from last to the leading group. Before three out she was travelling strongly and I was wishing I had been on, but from three out she faded eventually finishing 6^th. My view was she didn’t stay the extended 3 mile trip and the mid race exertions wouldn’t have helped. Today she runs off a 2lb lower mark over half a mile less and if ridden with restraint should go very close. She was available at 12/1 with VC last night but unfortunately they’ve closed my account so I couldn’t get on.Considering drift in the market was never going to win and never looked like getting placed from the home turn and plugged on the gain 4th after the last. Disappointing effort, although I still think there is a race in her.

Better Quality Racing Today

After a couple of quiet days with no selections due to the quality of racing on offer, there are three meetings today at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and there is just one selection in an attempt to end this losing run.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.42 2012= -2.0

Sandown 2.35 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN @7/4 Various

Prospects Wells has done well in four starts for Paul Nicholls this season; winning at Chepstow and Newbury in between good efforts in defeat at Cheltenham and Ascot. In his last run was in the The Ladbroke he was sent off the 11-4 favourite appeared outpaced at a critical stage against some better-handicapped rivals but stayed on really well toward the finish so the Sandown hill should play to his advantage here.

Losing Run Continues

Prosecco ran a strange race on Monday having been backed from 4/1 into 5/2. He was another selection who didn't jump with any fluency and despite moving into second on the home turn was never going to get close to the winner and eventually faded into 5th.
So a disappointing start to the year making it 10 successive losers since Invictus won at Plumpton on 6th December. I still remain positive as most of the losing selections have started at shorter prices than advised and other bloggers I respect are independantly coming up with the same selections as me, so its not t's not as though I'm wide of the mark and selecting no hopers. I've been in this game long enough to expect these runs and I will continue with my tried and tested method knowing that in the long run my statistics will show a profit.

Two meetings today at Huntingdon and Southwell but there is no selection.

Poor Run Continues

Sonovic was very disappointing selection yesterday never travelling or jumping with any fluency before a bad mistake after jumping 4 out put paid to any chance he may have had. A poor start to the year and with three meetings today at Ayr, Folkestone and Plumpton, there is one selection in an attempt to break the losing streak.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8/11 +19.42       2012= -1.0

Ayr 1.55 Prospeco 1PT WIN @7/2 William Hill Various

Prospeco was a selection earlier in the season when heavily backed at Wetherby over two miles when only managing to finish fifth. On that run I thought a step up to 2 ½ miles and softer ground would suit and he tried this a Newcastle when once again well backed and finished 2^nd to the very well handicapped and gambled on Papa Caruso. Today he returns to his favourite track Ayr (3 wins and a second from 4 runs) on soft ground and should be spot on for a big run. Available at 4/1 last night he has already been clipped into 7/2