Better Quality Racing Today

After a couple of quiet days with no selections due to the quality of racing on offer, there are three meetings today at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and there is just one selection in an attempt to end this losing run.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +18.42 2012= -2.0

Sandown 2.35 Prospect Wells 1PT WIN @7/4 Various

Prospects Wells has done well in four starts for Paul Nicholls this season; winning at Chepstow and Newbury in between good efforts in defeat at Cheltenham and Ascot. In his last run was in the The Ladbroke he was sent off the 11-4 favourite appeared outpaced at a critical stage against some better-handicapped rivals but stayed on really well toward the finish so the Sandown hill should play to his advantage here.

Losing Run Continues

Prosecco ran a strange race on Monday having been backed from 4/1 into 5/2. He was another selection who didn't jump with any fluency and despite moving into second on the home turn was never going to get close to the winner and eventually faded into 5th.
So a disappointing start to the year making it 10 successive losers since Invictus won at Plumpton on 6th December. I still remain positive as most of the losing selections have started at shorter prices than advised and other bloggers I respect are independantly coming up with the same selections as me, so its not t's not as though I'm wide of the mark and selecting no hopers. I've been in this game long enough to expect these runs and I will continue with my tried and tested method knowing that in the long run my statistics will show a profit.

Two meetings today at Huntingdon and Southwell but there is no selection.

Poor Run Continues

Sonovic was very disappointing selection yesterday never travelling or jumping with any fluency before a bad mistake after jumping 4 out put paid to any chance he may have had. A poor start to the year and with three meetings today at Ayr, Folkestone and Plumpton, there is one selection in an attempt to break the losing streak.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8/11 +19.42       2012= -1.0

Ayr 1.55 Prospeco 1PT WIN @7/2 William Hill Various

Prospeco was a selection earlier in the season when heavily backed at Wetherby over two miles when only managing to finish fifth. On that run I thought a step up to 2 ½ miles and softer ground would suit and he tried this a Newcastle when once again well backed and finished 2^nd to the very well handicapped and gambled on Papa Caruso. Today he returns to his favourite track Ayr (3 wins and a second from 4 runs) on soft ground and should be spot on for a big run. Available at 4/1 last night he has already been clipped into 7/2

Happy New Year To All Readers

Welcome to 2012 hopefully on a gambling front it will start in much better fashion than 2011 ended, as yesterday’s selection Tafika sum up what a disastrous month December was when falling at the first fence. The only comfort I take from my last two selections has been that they were also selected by fellow bloggers, Rowan Tiger by Patient Speculation and Tafika by Longshot, whose knowledge and reasoning I greatly respect.

On to today with five National Hunt meetings at Catterick, Cheltenham, Exeter, Fakenham and, Musselburgh. My initial selection for the day was Hawk Mountain who looked on a very good mark for his handicap debut at Fakenham and I thought the 9/4 on offer last night was massive. Sadly the ground must now be too soft and he is now a non runner, which leaves me with one other selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +20.42

Cheltenham 1.05 Sonovic 1PT WIN @5/4 Various Unplcd (6/5F)

I very rarely recommend backing this short but Sonovic put a highly impressive case debut at Newbury chasing home Grand Crus and given the way he won the Feltham last week I expect him to take this in receipt of weight  from Invictus and Solix on his way to better things. Paul Nichols comments on his Betfair blog stengthen my support for this selection as he comment that Sonovic delighted me when winning his novice hurdles last season, as this point winner has always been a chaser in the making. And he showed just that when running Grands Crus to two lengths at Newbury, albeit getting 7lb. The winner obviously advertised the merit of that form when winning the Feltham so impressively, meaning we clearly have a Sun Alliance horse on our hands. That said, he is not short of speed so I don't think the step back in trip will be that much of a problem.

When Your Luck Is Out

No luck again yesterday with Rowan Tiger making a bad mistake at the third last when in front which ultimately cost him third place on the run in. However this was an above average novice hurdle with the winner Grumeti  being talked about as a Triumph hurdle candidate, so Rowan Tiger remains one to follow particularly if dropped into a handicap off his current mark. Three meetings today at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and there is one selection at Warwick in an attempted to round off the year with a winning selection.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +21.42

Wawick  2.20 Tafika 1/2PT E/W @8/1B365 Fell (8/1)

A very competitive handicap chase but the one which caught my eye is Tafika who jumped exceptionally well on his season debut at Bangor earlier this month, before lack of peak fitness told and Denis O’Regan accepted defeat before two out allowing him to coast home in his own time. The trainer states on his website that he had a wind operation in the spring and may be a very well-handicapped horse. Given that if Bangor was a pipe opener then given the normal improvement between runs he should go very close today . As I have wrote this the 9/1 that was available has disappeared and 8/1 is now the best available price. Unbelievable Denis O'Regan fails to arrive from Newbury on time and he falls at the first. 

Selection For Taunton

No selection yesterday and with two meetings today at Haydock and Taunton and there is one selection at Taunton. I live about 5 miles from Haydock and am actually surprised the meeting is going ahead given all it has done for the last 48hrs is rain heavily so I would expect the ground to be very testing.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42

Taunton  2.20 Rowan Tiger 1/2PT E/W @9/2Various

Rowan Tiger won very easily at Bangor last time and I would expect him to go close to defying  the penalty in this fairly competitive novice hurdle considering Tony McCoy has chosen to ride him again. However this will be no easy task as he was over 20lbs inferior on the flat to favourite Ted Spread, but like Bangor I expect him to go out and make all and put pressure on the others jumping in the later stages of the race. If he is unable to defy the penalty I cannot see him finishing outside the first three so hence at the price this is really a bet to nothing.

Poor Effort – Confidence Restore

Sole Survivor put in a very poor effort yesterday. I was never comfortable with the way he was travelling and although he was in second turning for home he drop away very quickly approaching the 2^nd last. He is better than that run and he clearly has some kind of problem.

So far December has been a wretched month for the Blog with just one winner from ten selections and in an attempt to restore some confidence last night I reviewed my stats below for the year which are showing a healthy 51PT profit and a 19% return on investment.

	Monthly	Cum
	Points	Points
Jan	22.38	22.38
Feb	19.30	41.68
Mar	-14.42	27.26
Apl	-5.66	21.60
May	-5.41	16.19
June	18.50	34.69
July	-6.50	28.19
Aug	2.83	31.02
Sept	7.50	38.52
Oct	1.91	40.43
Nov	18.75	59.18
Dec	-7.60	51.58

Having discussed with a non gambling friend last night he was very impressed that firstly I made money from backing horses and secondly that my returns are well in excess of what could be earned investing in the financial markets. Both these comments and a few beers help restore some confidence that I do know what I’m doing and from experience I know there will be good and bad runs and in truth I am doing nothing differently now in my selection approach to what I was doing early in the year or when I was having a good run in November. It is a tried and tested approach that has stood me in good stead for a number of years so I can see no reason to change it. The only thing I am now doing differently is having less bets as a result of the Blog which has added discipline to my betting and is stopping me betting to chase my losses. Having reviewed my selections over the past month I feel positive that I will soon blog a winner again as the majority of my selections are being placed without winning.

Two cards today at Doncaster and Kelso and after reviewing the cards there is nothing which stands out as a betting opportunity.

P&L at advised prices since 24/8 +22.42